Registan.net has a commentary and link to a RIA Novosti analysis on the capture of the Georgian citizen of Armenian origin who attempted to cause mayhem by throwing a grenade that failed to detonate at the 10 May 2005 address by the U.S. and Georgian Presidents in Tbilisi. According to the analysis, Russia had warned Georgia of the danger of an assassination attempt but to be honest, I said the same when I heard Bush was going to address a crowd in the open not because I had any information on a possible attack but it’s the kind of thing that’s likely to happen in a region like this.

Hell, one suspects that it could happen in almost any country Bush is likely to visit. Let’s face it, the man is hardly Mr. Popular.

What is interesting about this analysis, however, is talk once again of Georgia being a failed state. It might well be but I don’t think that a failed attempt to throw a grenade that landed 100 meters away from Bush and Saakashvili and failed to go off is any indication of that just as it wasn’t when three planes dived into the World rade Center and Pentagon buildings and during the recent suicide bombings in London. Now, corruption, a poor economy, breakaway regions and ethnic minority tensions is another matter.

Ironically, the analysis does note that the state budget under Saakashvili is now five times the size as that under Shevardnadze which has got to be an improvement even if the military budget is now a whopping $324 million per annum. It’s also interesting to note that while the Russian analysts laments the militarization of a country that has every reason to be concerned by Russian meddling within its territory — including keeping Russian military bases on Georgian soil — the whole region, including Armenia and Azerbaijan, is militarized and all three countries have their military budgets topped up by unknown sources.

Nevertheless, it is true that there is some concern that much of the potential of Georgia that ironically brought Saakashvili to power, i.e. an independent or alternative media and an active civil society, is now in a worse situation than under Shevardnadze. At the same time, international donors are believe to be irritated with the slow pace of progress in Georgia and some analysts even suggest that Saakashvili’s role in the development of a democratic Georgia is now over. Certainly, they say, he should not run for a second term in office. Poor old Saakashvili — it’s even rumored that his wife wants to leave him or already has.

Anyway, the RIA Novosti analysis can be read here.