An Armenian girl prays for peace, Church Service, Stepanakert Theatre, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

United Press International, distribued via Groong, reports that the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh may soon be at an end. UPI says that although details of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have not been made public, both countries have confirmed progress has been made within the last month.

From what we think we know, Armenia will withdraw from 5 or 6 regions outside of Karabakh proper but within the borders of Azerbaijan and a referendum to be held 10-15 years later will determine the status of the territory. The opposition in Armenia are already concerned by this but presumably, the Armenian side expects that those taking part in any referendum would overwhelmingly vote to secede from Azerbaijan.

According to Haik Gugarats, assistant to Armenian Ambassador Tatoul Markarian, Armenia’s conditions for a sovereign Karabakh must include a guarantee that Karabakh “will not be subordinated to Azerbaijan, it must have a land border with Armenia, and there must be self-determination by the people of Karabakh.”

“I am convinced, and it is widely shared, that any solution to the conflict will be based on the fact and the right of self-determination of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is the core and the final settlement must take that into account,” Markarian told an Armenian news agency.

Incidentally, I would interpret the idea of a referendum in the future to be a way for the Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev to deflect criticism at home. The idea is that Karabakh is not legally recognized as separate from Azerbaijan until well into the future when it is hoped that most Azeris have forgotten about the conflict and when economic ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan mean that neither side would want closed borders or conflict to emerge again.

Even so, while it is believed that Armenia genuinely wants peace, it is hard to say whether most Azeris would accept the terms of a peace deal that would mean that Karabakh is officially recognized as lost. With parliamentary elections scheduled for November in Azerbaijan, this point might weigh heavily on the Azeri president’s mind. Nevertheless, I have it on good authority that the sources informing RFE/RL of Armenia’s position in the current state of negotiations are genuine, reliable and accurate.

Basically, it all depends on Azerbaijan now.