Agarak, Aragatsotn Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian

Contrary to yesterday’s comments made by Agustin Carstens, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) poverty did not fall to 33 percent of the population in 2003. Instead, according to the Social Snapshot and Poverty in Armenia Household Survey for 2003, the level of poverty stands at 42.9 percent which includes 7.4 percent living in extreme poverty. Nevertheless, the figures are a significant reduction compared to 2002 when poverty stood at 49.7 percent including 13.1 percent in extreme poverty.

I mentioned the IMF statement to a statistician at the Armenia Social Transition Program (ASTP) - PADCO and her first response, like mine in my previous post, was that maybe he was referring to Yerevan. However, when we checked the data for the capital, it stood at only 29.6 percent. To cut a long story short, however, what the statistician concluded was that the IMF representative was referring to the minimum level of poverty given in the margin of error for the household survey.

For example, while Yerevan has a 95 percent level of confidence for poverty levels at 29.6 percent, the margin of error outside the capital is higher . For example, although poverty levels in the Aragatsotn region officially stand at 57 percent, they might be as low as 37.2 percent or as high as 76.9 percent. For the whole of Armenia, therefore the margin of error for poverty is as low as 33.3 percent or as high as 52.5 percent. However, 42.9 percent is the official government figure.

Interestingly, the 2003 Household Survey for 2003 was unique in the sense that 10 percent of households refused to participate in the survey. In 1996, for example, it was only 2.4 percent. Nevertheless, the results of the 2004 Household Survey will be released later this year and while official figures from the government are not yet available, they will show a further decline in poverty.