On Saturday, The Toronto Sun carried an article on what many people consider to be one of the greatest problems facing Armenia today. While western donors laud economic growth since 1995, there is still a sizeable proportion of the population that has failed to benefit from it. In particular, social tension remains high as many of the most vulnerable in society have their rights trampled on an almost daily basis. This is particularly true for those living in the middle of the largest territory-grab in central Yerevan since independence.

Naira Yeremyan knows her home doesn’t look like much, but it’s all she has. A ramshackle collection of wooden boards, concrete slabs and mismatched bricks, it sits amid the winding streets of Kond, a desperately poor neighbourhood perched on a hilltop overlooking the Armenian capital, Yerevan.

What the neighbourhood does have is a view. Below Kond, the city stretches for kilometres onto the Armenian plains. In the distance sits the ice-capped peak of Mt. Ararat in Turkey. The view has property developers salivating over the prospect of erecting luxury apartments in Kond. And that’s the bane of Yeremyan’s existence.

[…]

Three months ago, local authorities told the 14,000 residents of Kond they would have to vacate their homes by the end of the year to make way for modern housing. In exchange, they will be given payments of between $2,400 and $6,000.

“You cannot buy a house anywhere in Yerevan for that much. We are going to be homeless. They are throwing us out on the streets,” says Yeremyan, who shares both the house and a monthly pension of about $30 with her 63-year-old mother.

Of course, this can all be seen in the context in there being a lack of democracy in Armenia. Constitutional rights are non-existent and the law hardly functions at all. If you want to get ahead in Armenia, some analysts suggest, you have to be related to, or involved in business with, government officials. Most of the new cafes, restaurants and exclusive shops in downtown Yerevan, for example, are owned by officials who paradoxically declare that their incomes amount to no more than a few hundred dollars a month.

[…] instead of thriving, Armenia languished. Its politics are moribund, dominated by President Robert Kocharian, a man critics accuse of falsifying elections and cracking down on opponents. The economy, though improving, is in shambles. Almost half the population lives on less than $2 a day.

The result has been a mass exodus - the reverse of early hopes for Armenia. Instead of hundreds of thousands of dispersed Armenians flocking to the country, more than 1 million have left for Russia and the West. According to some estimates, the country has lost more than 30 per cent of its working-age population.

“People are leaving because they don’t see any hope for the future,” says Avetik Ishkanyan, chair of the Helsinki Committee, a human rights group. “And the worst part is that the ones who are leaving are from the most active part of society - these are the people we need to bring about changes in this country.”

Critics lay much of the blame at Kocharian’s feet. They say the
president - elected for a second time in 2003 - is running a corrupt and despotic regime, giving free rein to businessmen close to him and stifling any dissent.

This is all enough to get the most fervent armchair nationalist in the Diaspora seething and so at least the article offers some respite by being fairly well balanced. The big debate in international circles is based around the idea that flawed as it may be, the system in Armenia is at least evolving.

Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan says the opposition uses the pretence of supporting democracy to gain support abroad as they attempt to overthrow the government. He says he knows Armenia’s democracy is not perfect, but believes it is improving.

“The government is stable and the country is on the path to becoming fully democratic,” he says. “A lot has been done, but a lot remains to be done.”

Under pressure from the West, Armenia will hold a national referendum this year on a package of constitutional amendments designed to limit the power of the presidency and protect judicial independence. Oskanyan says the reforms will be key to ensuring democratic growth.

“Once we complete our constitutional reforms, Armenia will move forward in leaps and bounds,” he says.

In the post Georgian and Ukrainian world, it is now obligatory for any journalist to consider the possibility of “revolution” while analysts wonder where next. The article quotes opposition leader Aram Sarkisyan as saying that his recent trip to the U.S. resulted in assurances of support from officials there if he staged a “revolution” in Armenia. However, many analysts say that this further from the truth.

Still, experts say it’s unlikely the opposition can organize a successful revolution or win Western support. Fractured by in-fighting and with no clear leader, the opposition is more likely to fall apart before posing any threat to Kocharian.

“The opposition is too weak and the government is just democratic enough to keep the West from supporting drastic changes,” says a Western official in Yerevan, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Probably that’s the situation. Government officials stand to lose an obscene amount of wealth if they are removed from power and in recent months have conceded a great deal to activists in the environmental movement and also the Council of Europe. Nevertheless, despite the upbeat ending that quotes an arguably insignificant number of young adults frequenting a small cafe in Yerevan, it’s a pity that the government still continues to suppress the emergance of any progressive youth and student movement in the country.

Chatting over rich coffees in Yerevan’s trendy ArtBridge Cafe, a group of students and recent graduates agree that a revolution is next to impossible.

Unlike so many young Armenians, they’ve decided to stay and try to build their country. “I will not leave Armenia, I want to do things for my country, make it a better place to live,” says Artak Ayunts, a 26-year-old university lecturer.

But the group is skeptical about radical changes. They don’t believe Armenians are ready for a revolution and say it could take decades of slow progress before the country is free and relatively prosperous.

“People don’t believe in themselves, they think someone else should always make changes for them,” Ayunts says. Jokes philosophy student Gevorg Abrahamyan: “The biggest problem with Armenia is the Armenians.”

Probably, this is the main issue to resolve in the run-up to the 2007 parliamentary elections. That is, the empowerment of that section of the population that could have an important input into the future direction of the country. I don’t think that anyone expects a “revolution” in Armenia unless those elections are falsified to pave the way for the Defense Minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, to come to power in 2008.

Besides, if Armenians can not shape their own future, nobody else can.

The full article can be read online here and incidentally, some my own photographs from Kond are also available online in Macromedia Flash format.