National Citizens’ Initiative Examines Likelihood of Revolution in Armenia
Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition rally protesting the outcome of the 2003 Presidential Elections, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia
Yesterday, Raffi Hovannisian’s National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) held a roundtable examining the likelihood of revolution in Armenia. In opposition to the Armenian President, Robert Kocharian, the US-born former Foreign Minister is considered an important figure in the political life of the independent republic.
According to the report on the NCI web site, the (pro-opposition) chairperson of the National Press Club, Narine Mkrtchian, said that revolution was the only way to bring democracy to Armenia. An analyst from Raffi Hovannisian’s think-tank, the Armenian Center
for National and International Studies (ACNIS), also outlined why he believed that the necessary conditions for revolution exist in Armenia today.
“The current situation, which can be characterized by the inactiveness and ineffectiveness of state authorities, unbridled arbitrariness by high-level bureaucracy, advanced level of bribery and corruption, and the explicit violation of law and order, is leading the country toward anarchy and chaos, and the rule of the jungle, when the big and strong eats up the small and weak, and this makes the chance of a revolution in Armenia simply inevitable,” Vardanian said.
Interestingly, Vardanian also said that events in Azerbaijan might have a knock-on effect in Armenia, a view recently shared with me by another analyst. As a result, it is believed that the authorities have purposely delayed the referendum on constitutional ammendments until after the November parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan.
That said, many people still consider that resolution of the long-running confict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh is close and if so, it is unlikely that the U.S. in particular would want to see regime change in either country disrupt the possibility of peace. Anyway, the full report on the NCI meeting can be found online here.
Incidentally, Hovannisian formed his own political party in 2003 although it has not yet taken part in any elections.
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