Sarsang, Mardakert Region, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia

There’s probably no need to repeat many of the details mentioned in this article by Liz Fuller at RFE/RL because I’ve posted much of it on this blog before, the one that preceded it and through the short-lived Armenian Digest publication since the beginning of the year. However, this article condenses all that we know about moves to finalize a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan and resolve the long-running dispute over the mainly Armenian populated region of Nagorno Karabakh.

It concludes that the November Parliamentary Elections in Azerbaijan makes the signing of a peace deal, when the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents meet at the end of the month, unlikely. Then again, as a final deal would require that the two presidents address their respective nations, which they haven’t, I don’t think anyone was expecting a deal until the end of the year or the beginning of 2006 at the earliest. Instead, what some analysts are expecting is a statement from the two presidents saying that a peace deal might be imminent. According to Liz Fuller, that might still be the case.

The timing of the Kazan summit — two months before the 6 November parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan — in itself makes it unlikely that the two presidents would sign a formal peace deal that would require a major concession from Baku, because any such concession could alienate many voters. But Russian Minsk Group co-Chairman Yurii Merzlyakov was quoted on 17 August by day.az as suggesting that the two presidents might issue a joint statement hinting that a formal peace deal is imminent. A 17 August EurasiaNet analysis similarly quoted an unnamed Azerbaijani official as saying that the most that can be hoped for from the Kazan meeting is “a statement by the presidents in which they would order their foreign ministers to start working on the text of a future agreement.” Such a joint statement would serve to send the message to Azerbaijan’s electorate that peace is finally within reach — provided its elects a parliament in which Aliyev’s Yeni Azerbaycan Party has a comfortable majority.

Anyway, all the posts containing more information and links to news items on the statements and meetings leading up to this point in negotiations can be found at http://oneworld.blogsome.com/category/karabakh/ and also here and here. The RFE/RL article is here.