The Institute of War & Peace Reporting (IWPR) says that a low turnout in the referendum on amending the constitution in Armenia might pose the greatest risk to the amendments being passed.

Most observers seem to think the real danger facing the authorities comes not from the “no” campaign, but from voter apathy which might fail to produce the required one-third turnout.

Taxi driver 45-year-old Ashot is fairly typical of the undecided. “Are you a journalist?” he asked this IWPR contributor. “So tell me whether I should vote yes or no. How can I make a decision? They are using Europe to intimidate us - but what right does Europe have to decide and dictate to us? Why are they [Armenian authorities] not explaining things to us to allow us to make up our own minds.”

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Excessive government campaigning might not help, either. “The threat to the constitutional referendum comes from bad propaganda [in favour of it] rather than good propaganda against it,” independent political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan told IWPR.

Interestingly, the article also refers to a new clause that will afford the president immunity from prosecution. Even more interestingly, some are concerned about a clause that will allow Armenia’s borders to be redrawn without consulting the public.

Finally, there is alarm at the implication that the president could push through changes to Armenia’s national borders without consulting the nation in a referendum.

This is an emotive issue as it relates directly to the long-running negotiations over Nagorny Karabakh, which has been a self-declared republic since the 1992-94 war but over which Azerbaijan still claims sovereignty. One element among the various solutions proposed so far would involve Azerbaijan formally ceding control of the Lachin district, a narrow strip of land running between Karabakh and Armenia, and getting in return part of Armenia’s Meghri district bordering on Iran. Lachin is controlled by the Karabakh Armenians but is technically regarded as lying outside Karabakh proper.

The point of the exercise - which is still only one of many proposals in talks that are a long way from resolution - would be to make Karabakh contiguous with Armenia itself. Azerbaijan would acquire for the first time a land connection with Nachichevan, an exclave territory currently cut off from the rest of the country by southern Armenia.

Even if the ultimate prize is recognition for a Karabakh Armenian state, the loss of a part of the Armenian motherland is a keenly felt political issue.

Regardless, few are expecting Armenia to experience its own “colored revoltion.” In fact, some analysts believe that urging a no vote in the referendum could backfire on those opposed to Kocharian.

“I think we won’t have a Georgian-type revolution – although life and politics are unpredictable,” said Ishkhanyan. “In the event of a no vote, the opposition will have more opportunities to hold massive rallies. But if the constitution is passed, the opportunities for this will be reduced to a minimum.”

Aharon Adibekyan, director of the independent Sociometer centre, predicts that whatever the outcome of the referendum, it will be bad for the opposition.

“The adoption of the constitutional amendments will mean that the majority of the population has not backed an opposition that urged them to vote no,” he said. “But if the referendum fails, the state propaganda machine will become active to cast the blame on the opposition, because of which we have disgraced ourselves before the European community.”

The full article can be read online here.