Baku, Republic of Azerbaijan © Dean Cox / Eurasianet

It’s 12.21 am in Yerevan as I type this post and polling stations will soon be open for Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections. I’m sure virtually everyone interested in the post-Soviet world and the global advance of democracy is waiting with baited breath to see and hear what happens throughout the day, and especially after the polling stations close.

So, as the big day is upon us, the latest roundup of news, and to begin with, a report from the BBC. On Thursday, Azerbaijani police raided the headquarters of an opposition party and arrested its campaign manager.

“We had a lead on some weapons that may have been stored there,” ministry spokesman Sadiq Gezalov told the AFP news agency.

Hmm, so there was some information but no guns, right? So, why arrest Faramaz Javadov? Incidently, that’s a rhetorical question. Anyway, Mosnews also carries the story, as does Reuters who report that the Azerbaijani authorities still claim that the vote will be free and democratic. The opposition and many outside observers are not convinced.

Faramaz Javadov, campaign manager for the Democratic Party, was arrested in a raid on the party’s election headquarters on Thursday evening. The Democratic Party is one of a trio that make up the Azadlyq bloc, the main opposition force.

“(This) means the authorities are already preparing to falsify the election results,” said party spokesman Nureddin Ismailov. “This is their method of trying to scare our supporters and exclude them from the election.”

The Guardian has more details. Meanwhile, Eurasianet says that there are still concerns over the use of exit polls in the elections.

Unlike the government, the opposition has been outspoken in its reaction to the three exit pollsters. The opposition believes that both Mitofsky and Saar Poll have the government as their clients, albeit using front organizations. Reluctance by both Mitofsky and Saar Poll to discuss their clients has fueled these doubts. Mitofsky originally claimed that its exit poll is sponsored by a Switzerland-based company called Renaissance. Saar Poll has named its client as Santo Communications, a British financial institution, the company says.

On November 1, Turan News Agency reported that it had received a letter that allegedly identified the client of Mitofsky International as Renaissance Associates, a lobbyist firm which represents the Azerbaijani government in Washington. In response to the claim, Mitofsky International stated on November 2 that Renaissance Associates is a respected organization with which Mitofsky has had experience working.

Opposition accusations of bias have also dogged PA Consulting Group’s two local partners, Baku-based SORGU (Survey) and GORBI, an opinion research firm based in Tbilisi, Georgia, which will act as a technical advisor. “They have the reputation of being biased organizations,” said PFPA Deputy Chairman Fuad Mustafayev. “ We do trust PA Consulting, but not their contractors.” The opposition traces its reservations to a May 2005 opinion poll commissioned by GORBI and implemented by SORGU, which gave President Ilham Aliyev a 77-percent approval rating, and was incorrectly attributed to polling giant Gallup International.

Today.az says that things are definitely not rosy in Azerbaijan’s exclave, Nakhichevan, where the Popular Front of Azerbaijan has already stated that it will not recognize the results of the elections. In particular, while every journalist appears to have focused solely on Baku, the Popular Front say that freedom of assembly is limited and no rallies have been allowed at all in the territory isolated from Azerbaijan proper by Armenia.

“The PFPA Nakhchivan branch informs that it will make demands on holding new elections after November 6 by using all rights the Constitution gives us and trying to abolish results of this elections,” reads the statement.

Well, as the opening of the polling stations draws closer, and as the voting proceeds, keep an eye on Registan.net for late breaking news. Katy over at Blogrel is also in Baku and promises to post impressions and photographs as soon as she can find an internet connection fast enough. She’s also posting over at NewEurasia.

To end, however, Ben over at Registan.net suggests that a “colored revolution” will probably not happen in Azerbaijan. Despite the corruption, and despite the poverty, Aliyev still has the support of a great many Azerbaijanis. Ben bases this assessment on an interview he held with Razi Nurallayev, head of the YOX youth organization.

# As the IRI poll implies, there is not a universal feeling of discontent in Azerbaijan. People seem more optimistic about their future than they are fed up with their present economic situation.

# Razi said that Aliyev is actually not the black-and-white despot, and unlike his father, he seems more reform-minded than many think. Taking into account that YOX is thought to be a more or less ‘radical’ youth organisation working for regime change, these words are very interesting.

Well, soon we’ll know. Not that anyone is expecting the elections to get a clean bill of health from the international community. Instead, what matters is whether the extent of falsification and other electoral transgressions is sufficient enough to call into question Azerbaijan’s democratization, and to raise doubts about the final results.