Raffi Hovannisian Seeks Public Support for 2008 Presidential Bid
Also reported by RFE/RL is news that Raffi Hovannisian, Armenia’s first Foreign Minister, is seeking public support in his bid to run for President in 2008. If successful, this development will be greeted enthusiastically by most Armenians who have long considered Hovannisian to be the most suitable candidate for the presidency.
Tigran Xmalian, a film-maker and advisor to Hovannisian, told RFE/RL that some 50,000 people have already signed a petition demanding that the opposition politician be considered to have been an Armenian citizen since 1991.
Under Armenia’s constitution, only those individuals who have had Armenian citizenship and “permanently” lived in the country for the past 10 years can be registered as presidential candidates. Hovannisian received an Armenian passport in 2001, ten years after he first applied for one.
Hovannisian insists that President Robert Kocharian and his predecessor Levon Ter-Petrosian illegally blocked his citizenship applications. He says Kocharian’s decree granting him Armenian nationality should therefore be backdated to 1991. The authorities rejected this demand, preventing him from standing in the last presidential election held in 2003.
Interestingly, President Kocharian is also ineligible given that he was born in Nagorno Karabakh and served as the disputed territory’s President until Levon Ter Petrosian appointed him Prime Minister and brought him to Armenia in 1997. Regardless, as Hovannisian represents a real threat to the system in place in Armenia, even his supporters suspect that the petition will fail to achieve its objective.
Also promising to assist in the campaign is the Hanrapetutyun radical opposition party. But Hanrapetutyun spokesman Suren Sureniants cautioned that he thinks it will not succeed as long as Kocharian is in power. “I don’t expect this issue to receive a fair solution through courts or otherwise under this regime,” he said.
Probably, a lot will be dependent on parliamentary elections to be held by May 2007. Unfortunately, however, it is possible that future elections will again be decided by the money and muscle of Armenia’s ever powerful oligarchs. RFE/RL’s press review has more on this likelihood.
According to “168 Zham,” the most powerful of those oligarchs, Gagik Tsarukian, has already formed his party called Prosperous Armenia. The paper says he intends to have a “big faction” in the next Armenian parliament. The faction would include “a number of prominent entrepreneurs and politicians.” “In order to have a majority in the National Assembly, Gagik Tsarukian will form an alliance before the [2007] elections with the People’s Party of [TV station owner and commentator] Tigran Karapetian and the newly created ZhUK party of [parliament deputy] Manuk Gasparian.”
Incidently, a recent interview with Raffi Hovannisian is available here.
Hovakim at Blogrel also thinks Hovannisian will not be allowed to run for president. He’s probably right as Hovannisian represents too much of a threat to too many people with too much to lose. Anyway, as everyone is on moderation over at Blogrel, here’s the comment I posted to Hovakim’s post:
Wasn’t he the first Foreign Minister? Besides, regarding your point about incumbents, in 2008 Kocharian can’t run again unless he plays around with the constitutional court and gets a ruling that if the amendments are passed, he can turn the counter back to zero for the presidential term restriction.
Although Kocharian will attempt to hand pick his successor if he doesn’t plan to run for a third term, one hopes that we’ll have democratic elections by 2007 and 2008.
If Heritage and other opposition parties (and also, pro-government ones split on the issue of succession to Kocharian) manage to win a sizeable number of seats in the 2007 parliamentary elections, it’s entirely possible that a power base will be there.
Let’s see.
Certainly, most Armenians appear to think that he is the best candidate for the presidency and I think we can expect Hovannisian to become more and more active in the area of opposition politics from the date of the referendum to that of the parliamentary elections.
Still, you’re right with the main issue. That is, given his popularity, the present authorities will not allow him to run for president.
Comment by Administrator — November 14, 2005 @ 8:28 pm
Ara Manoogian also considers this news important for Armenia’s future democtratization. Meanwhile, despite most Armenian citizens say they consider Hovannisian to be the cleanest and most suitable of all politicians in Armenia, some of the readers at Blogrel don’t agree. In particular, one reader says Hovannisian doesn’t “look” presidential. Here’s my response posted on Blogrel earlier:
I never knew “looking” presidential was necessary to run for the post, and anyway, that’s a very subjective thing. I mean, in my opinion, Bush doesn’t “look” presidential, and nor does Blair “look” prime ministerial. Not sure Kocharian looks “presidential” either, or for that matter, does Saakashvili.
What matters most, perhaps, is whether the Armenian people want Hovannisian to run. Isn’t that what democracy is all about — who “looks” presidential in the eyes of the people? Certainly, he’s considered a man of the people, and through ACNIS, NCI and Heritage is engaging elements of society in debate over matters of importance.
The only criticism I’ve heard from a small number of Armenians who wouldn’t vote for him is that he’s still an “outsider.”
His stance on the constitutional amendments is a bit more controversial (he is against them), but otherwise, he is the most “professional” of all the politicians in Armenia today. On the other hand, I think Heritage shouldn’t have pulled out of the 2003 parliamentary elections, although for sure, the 2007 elections offer a greater chance for democratization in Armenia.
Anyway, I can tell you from speaking to people here that most of them would welcome Hovannisian’s inclusion in the battle to follow Kocharian. Let the voters decide, surely?
Comment by Administrator — November 15, 2005 @ 8:51 am
From what I understand is that Kocharian is eligible for the post of president because back when NKR declared independence, Armenia recognized them as a part of Armenia and NKR recognized Armenia as a part of NKR. Later on NKR reversed their decision, but Armenia never reversed theirs. For this reason, anyone who is a citizen of NKR is automatically a citizen of Armenia, thus eligible to have the post of president.
Comment by Ara Manoogian — November 17, 2005 @ 1:05 pm