RFE/RL reports that the long anticipated meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents is set to take place on 10-11 February 2006 in France. Although meetings between Kocharian and Aliyev to discuss resolution of the long-running dispute between the two countries over the mainly-Armenian inhabited territory of Nagorno Karabakh are nothing new, expectations are higher than at any time since Key West in 2001.

The head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe announced on Wednesday that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in France on February 10-11 to try to reach a framework agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh.

Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht confirmed the date of the crucial summit after holding what he described as “excellent discussions” with President Robert Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian.

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“On the basis of my discussions with the president this morning, I think there are hopes that we can come to an agreement in Paris,” he said. “But we should not take this for granted as we still have some problems to tackle. Both presidents will need a lot of wisdom and political courage to overcome them in Paris.”

In Oskanian’s words, Kocharian and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev will likely concentrate on a “one-page document” which was put forward by international mediators and discussed by the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in London last week. He said the document includes the “basic principles of the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.”

According to informed sources in the Armenian government, the framework agreement would see the return of at least 5 or 6 territories outside Karabakh currently under Armenian control to Azerbaijan, and the holding of a referendum within the disputed territory to determine its status in about 10-15 years. The Armenian leadership of the breakaway territory situated within Azerbaijan is reported to be less optimistic about such a deal.

De Gucht underlined unusually high international expectations from the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit when he spoke of the need for the OSCE to prepare a peace-keeping operation in the conflict zone “as soon as possible.” Logistical aspects of such a mission are already examined by OSCE military officials who toured last month areas in western Azerbaijan close to the Karabakh frontline. They arrived in Karabakh on a similar fact-finding trip to Karabakh at the weekend.

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While in Yerevan, de Gucht also met late Tuesday with Karabakh President Arkady Ghukasian. Speaking to reporters after the lengthy meeting, Ghukasian reiterated his skepticism about the possibility of a peaceful settlement. “I want to be optimistic, but see no grounds for that,” he said, adding that the Rambouillet talks “will not have a fateful significance.”

The full report can be read online here.

Incidently, one of the main obstacles to a possible peace deal might well be the need for Azerbaijan to amend its constitution. Currently, a referendum must be held nationwide and any attempt to change the constitution to allow one to be held in a specific territory would require that Azeri citizens effectively accept or reject the proposed peace plan.

Then again, and as we saw with Armenia’s recent referendum to amend its constitution and parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, since when did a popular vote of approval matter to the two respective Presidents?