Church Service, Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

Although I disagree with the assertion that reactivation of the Karabakh Peace Process has been unexpected, especially as Radio Free Europe’s Armenia Service as well as myself have been covering this eventuality since the beginning of 2005, the online publication Armenia Now does at least provide some more information. Amost everyone now considers that 2006 could be the year when a breakthrough in attempts to resolve the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh is possible.

Analysts of authoritative British Company Jane’s Information Group (JIG) came out with a statement that Azerbaijan had finally approved the idea of carrying out a referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh to identify the status of that region, and that Armenia was inclined to agree with the stage-to-stage settlement plan, which foresees the troops withdrawal from the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, as “Mediamax” agency reported.

According to Jane’s, till recently Baku had opposed the idea of holding a referendum in Karabakh, suggested by international mediators. It announced that international peacemakers are planned to be placed in the conflict zone to ensure security of the civil population there.

After a recent meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers in London, their two respective Presidents are due to meet in France during the second week of February. Armenia Now quotes the French President Jacques Chirac as saying that a solution is now close at hand.

“Armenia and Azerbaijan are friendly countries for France. And we are sure that at the moment the prospect of achieving a Nagorno-Karabakh Question settlement is not far way”, Shirak told French diplomats.

According to Panarmenian.net, the head of France assured that his country would do its best to make the year of 2006 a year of peace in the Caucasus.

“Working side by side with our colleagues we will do all it takes for peace to be established in 2006 in that region,” Shirack stressed in his speech.

If so, it will be interesting to see whether Azerbaijan will now have to amend its constitution to allow a referendum to be held in the disputed territory 10-15 years down the line. Some already believe that a new clause to allow the Armenian President to change the borders of the Republic with the approval of Parliament, as opposed to the population, is also a key component of any peace deal.

Certainly, there has been significant activity on the part of organizations dealing with conflict resolution and a number of reports detailing the elements of a proposed peace deal that we have known for a year have been published in the past few months. Anyway, Armenia Now’s report can be read online here.