Armenian-Azerbaijani border © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

RFE/RL’s Liz Fuller has written an analysis on the unprecedented expectations surrounding next month’s meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents. However, she says that the recent talks between the Foreign Ministers of the two countries “failed to shed much light on the likelihood of a major breakthrough in the Karabakh peace process.”

Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian did confirm the day after the London talks that the two sides are seeking to reach agreement on a half-page document that enumerates general principles that could then form the basis for a more detailed peace plan. But Oskanian said that while the two sides’ positions vis-a-vis some of those principles have drawn closer, on others their positions are still far apart, RFE/RL’s Armenian Service reported.

[…]

It therefore remains unclear whether the two countries’ presidents will indeed succeed in reaching a compromise on the contested points, let alone publicly endorse those basic principles, during their upcoming summit near Paris, which Kocharian’s spokesman has said will take place on February 10. Azerbaijani presidential administration official Novruz Mammadov hinted in a January 20 interview with the online daily echo-az.com that it is unlikely the two presidents will sign any agreements during their “first meeting of the year.”

However, according to Fuller, other details that indicate that the negotiations have reached a stage closer to a potential deal have been made public. Indeed, both sides seem to be talking as if a deal is inevitable. The only uncertainty is when. The two sides are apparently even discussing which countries could provide peakekeeping forces in the event of a deal and the OSCE has already visited the region to prepare for such a possibility.

What’s most interesting about this analysis, however, is specific mention of the need for Azerbaijan to amend its constitution. According to what we know, a referendum would be held in the disputed territory to determine its status 10-15 years down the line. However, according to Azerbaijan’s current constitution, any referendum must be held nationwide and not in a specific territory or region.

Neither Mammadov nor Azimov appears to have made the crucial point, noted on January 19 by the online daily zerkalo.az, that Article 3 of the Azerbaijani Constitution explicitly bars the possibility of changes to the country’s borders being submitted to a nationwide referendum. For such a referendum to take place, a preliminary referendum would first have to be held to amend those articles of the constitution, and few Azerbaijani voters are likely to endorse any amendments that would facilitate the loss of Azerbaijani jurisdiction over Karabakh.

While expectations are high that a breakthrough can be achieved this year, almost everyone will tell you that nothing is certain. In 2001, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents were believed to be close to a deal, but the Azerbaijani side reneged on details discussed in Key West, Florida, when the late Heydar Aliyev returned to Baku. Still, I can’t remember as much activity and optimism surrounding the peace process back then as there is now, and I would doubt that much progress towards European integration can be made until the conflict over Karabakh is resolved.

Interestingly, there have apparently been a lot of round tables meetings on Karabakh these past few weeks, and I had been invited by a youth NGO to one today. However, I’ve been told it’s more of a lecture than a discussion so I’m going to pass it by and take my son out to make snowmen instead. To be honest, I wouldn’t expect anything new to come out of such lectures.

Anyway, the full report can be read online here, and all posts on Karabakh on this site can be found in the appropiate category.