Armenia’s 168 zham newspaper reports that armed attacks are increasing again in Yerevan, the capital. Actually, it’s something I’ve noticed after stumbling upon a murder on my doorstop as the 2003 parliamentary elections were approaching. A number of high profile assassinations in broad daylight have also occured in a settling of political and economic scores since the 2003 presidential elections.

Yesterday at 10:00 am there was an armed attack in the apartment (Hr. Kochar street) of the head of Yerevan municipality juridical department Artyom Sargsyan. The criminals tied up the children and Mr. Sargsyan’s wife and stole a little safe from their apartment. Recently, armed attacks have increased in Armenia. On January 21, five citizens of Georgia made an armed attack in one of the exchange rate points on Baghramyan street and stole money. The majority of many crimes are committed by RA citizens.

This situation reminds us about the situation we used to have in 1990-1994. And recently a young man threatened a young girl with a knife in one of the metro stations of Yerevan and made her take off her boots. We were happy to overcome the difficulties back then, but actually we are starting again. Now we have to be more careful because criminals can enter our apartments by presenting themselves as people hired by the water and electricity services.

Talking of 168 Zham — fast becoming Armenia’s best newspaper although that’s not saying much — the bi-weekly publication also has an interesting article on prospects for resolution of the Karabakh conflict this year. As many analysts cautiously expect, it is possible that a breakthrough might be coming at the imminent talks in Paris between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents.

The Armenian authorities are not the only ones that predict that 2006 will be a year for resolving the Karabagh conflict. International officials have also made announcements and they claim that both sides are on their way to come to terms. There are many predictions that the conflict will be resolved in 2006.

Many people believe that during the Robert Kocharyan-Aliev meeting on February 10 in Paris, both sides will sign the “Main Principles Document” which will be put up for discussion by the West.

Leader of the “Republican” group of the National Assembly Galust Sahakyan doesn’t believe that the presidents will sign anything during the meeting to take place on February 10.

“In reality, they are discussing the allocation of the peacekeeping forces. The people of Armenia and Azerbaijan are making up the rest of the announcements and those announcements continue to be made by the political forces. There are some people that show the society that they know many things when they really don’t and take advantage of the people,” said G. Sahakyan.

One opposition party leader is not so optimistic, however, although I get the impression that he does think that unless Azerbaijan torpedoes negotiations, something will happen to bring the resolution of the conflict closer. Will it be in 2006, I don’t know, although with parliamentary elections scheduled for 2007 and presidential elections in both republics during 2008, this is the only chance for something to happen.

“If Mr. Kocharyan has already agreed to resign from office, then he can go ahead and sign that document because it will be very hard for him to be president of Armenia for even one day after signing that document.”

In response to the question as to whether or not Russia and the West will force both sides to accept their proposal, Aram G. Sargsyan said the following:

“I think the only one that will force anything is the West so that the NATO forces will be allocated in the region. Iran and Russia will be interested in this, so I think that yes, there will be enforcement from the U.S. or any other Western country. They will do this so that there will be a shift in power in the region. This meeting is not going to be fatal, according to Arkadi Ghukasyan, but it will be decisive.”

The leader of the Armenian Democratic political party is almost sure that there will be no final solution after the meeting on February 10, however, he is certain that Kocharyan has a couple of months before that final solution.