Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

As talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents continue in France, not much new information has emerged from the international press, or even from Armenian bloggers. On the one hand, we’re not really expecting any concrete news from Paris until later today or possibly even as late as Monday, and on the other it seems as though most Armenians are either unaware of the talks or still don’t believe that Armenia is ready to compromise.

According to most analysts, Karabakh obstructs democratization and economic development in both republics. Along with other frozen conflicts in the region, it also frustrates a process of regional and European integration that has started to accelerate after the November 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia. The completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline also makes a solution to the conflict more urgent before a new round of parliamentary presidential elections are held in Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2007-8.

Nevertheless, the International Herald Tribune has an update on the talks which, while not reporting on any breakthrough, does at least confirm some points being discussed by the two presidents. It also highlights that the main obstacle to the signing of a one page framework agreement on a phased peace deal. That is, the sensitive issue of Karabakh’s final status.

Several attempts to reach a peace settlement have failed, but diplomats have said this was the best opportunity in at least five years to reach a deal.

An official at the U.S. State Department said the talks were a crucial moment.

“We’re at the stage where the presidents have to turn the corner from negotiations to decisions,” said the official, who is involved in the negotiations. He added, “2006 is the year to do it.”

He spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

There are no elections in either country this year and there is a readiness in the international community to aid stability in the southern Caucasus, he said. Russia’s holding of the presidency of the Group of 8 industrialized nations this year is another factor that make conditions favorable, he said.

In six months of consultations involving the two sides, mediators have drawn up a draft document that they hope could be the basis for an agreement on core principles.

[…]

The document, less than a page long, is a concise description of an agreed approach to the major problems in the conflict, including the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, troop withdrawals and the deployment of an international peacekeeping force.

The main sticking point remains the status of Karabakh. The Armenians contend that the local population should have the right to decide the enclave’s status.

That principle is a red line for the Armenian government, said Hamlet Gasparian, a spokesman for its Foreign Ministry.

“The key question is the status of Karabakh and the right of the population to determine its future,” Gasparian said.

“We can’t negotiate on the principle, but we can make concessions on the timeline,” he said.

The Azeris appeared to be more reluctant to express optimism about the talks Friday afternoon, with diplomats late Friday hesitating to confirm that the negotiations would continue into Saturday.

But a spokesman for the foreign minister said the status quo was not desirable.

“The status quo cannot be continued forever,” said Tahir Tagizade, a spokesman for the Azeri Foreign Ministry. “There should be a way out of the impasse.”

It’s hard to say what will happen, but the pressure on both presidents to compromise must be great. Deeply flawed parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan and a referendum to amend the constitution in Armenia have put presidents in a less than favorable light in the West. And as Europe, the U.S., and possibly Russia want this conflict solved, what will determine the outcome of talks will be the extent of that pressure. For now, the main issue is whether Azerbaijan will concede and accept the idea of a referendum to be held in the territory to determine its status 10-15 years down the line.

For many Armenians, however, this is not a concession, but with military expenditure increasing in Azerbaijan, the international community is concerned that the conflict on hold since a 1994 ceasefire will resume in the future. However, as both Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents are in office as the result of elections that failed to meet international standards, it also seems likely that opposition forces in both countries will seize the opportunity to challenge any form of concessionary peace deal.

Still, as was shown with presidential and parliamentary elections in 2003 and 2005, as well as a highly suspect referendum in Armenia last year, the opposition and civil society in Armenia and Azerbaijan lack leadership and is hardly strong enough to contest anything. Could the opposition in both republics use Karabakh to rally the population around another attempt to unseat both leaders? It’s a question I put to journalists Tom de Waal and David Stern after the last peace talks in Key West in 2001.

OK: Opposition in both republics will be the way to gauge what potential there is for peace, but the opposition in Baku seems more vocal than it does here in Armenia. So far, there’s been very little opposition that’s emerged, but for many Armenians, the status of Karabagh is the main issue. Likewise, can you understand concerns that giving up any territory in the south weakens Armenia in the long term?

TDW: Yes, I can understand those concerns, but the counter argument is that Armenia will not get a better deal than this. There will either be the long-term isolation of Armenia that is crippling the country, or the option to give up something now to get something more later. Kocharian has obviously decided that this second option is better - to give up something now - and I think that’s indicative of the global perspective that both Presidents have.

Onnik Krikorian [To David Stern]: One factor that will determine the likelihood of any peace deal will be opposition in both countries, but how strong is the opposition in Azerbaijan?

David Stern: This is my opinion, and that of many others. No one knows how much support the opposition has in the country. We’ve had a number of elections and depending on whom you ask, the opposition did either fairly well, or they swept the board. However, there’s no way of knowing that, because obviously the results were falsified, and that’s very convenient for the opposition because they can say anything. However, they haven’t so far been pushed to behave like an opposition, and they’ve had it pretty easy in many ways, but Karabagh will be an indication of how much support they have, or how able they are to mobilize the country. While there are many issues that people are very angry about, Karabagh is the one issue that will presumably bring people out on to the streets.

There’s a lot of waiting to see what’s going to happen, and until then, it’s very difficult to say how much of a feeling there is. They say that the country and all eight million Azeris, or how many there are now, are dead set against any compromise. Every man, boy, and child between the ages of fifteen and fifty-five are waiting to grab their guns, and have itchy trigger fingers. However, it’s a lot further from the truth than that. Given the right circumstances I think that you could probably get the population to fever pitch, but at the moment, no. It has however, been much more of a topic of discussion among people on the street than it appears to be in Yerevan.

Gauging from what has been written in the press, and the debates in Parliament in February with Aliyev publicizing the three previous proposals, it has now became a hot topic. After the debates on the 22nd or 23rd February, everyone was saying Karabagh is ours and we’re going to fight. Two weeks later however, the mood had cooled down quite a bit, and although people still talk about it, they don’t talk about with as much emotion. If there were a peace deal, maybe the same thing would happen. There would be a lot of emotion, screaming and yelling but if Aliyev could control public opinion, within a month maybe things would cool down. It’s hard to say.

More when it comes.

Gandzasar, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994