By Nessuna

“Make sure you don’t miss the solar eclipse today in the afternoon,” my dad’s voice on the phone said, waking me up in the morning. “Tell your mom too, so she doesn’t get scared.” Half-awake, my mind immediately pictured a crowd running scared, and chaos in the streets of Yerevan creating panic and disorder while the sun slowly vanished in the gloomy sky. Seriously, I love my dad’s sense of humor, and when I got to work, I searched for info on the web and found the following.

On Wednesday, 2006 March 29, a total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from within a narrow corridor which traverses half the Earth. The path of the Moon’s umbral shadow begins in Brazil and extends across the Atlantic, northern Africa, and central Asia where it ends at sunset in western Mongolia. A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon’s penumbral shadow, which includes the northern two thirds of Africa, Europe, and central Asia.

According to the Director of the Byurakan Observatory of the National Academy of Science in Armenia, Hayk Harutyunyan, the solar eclipse could be observed only partially in Armenia. Weather permitting, it was possible to see 91.8 % of the sun covered and is believed to be the first solar eclipse of the 21st century. If you missed it you might have to wait years for your next chance to see it.

This is a fantastic chance to see a great eclipse, and should be made the most of by Europeans in particular, as it will be their last easy chance to see a total eclipse of the Sun in many years. The next total eclipse in Eurasia is 1 August 2008, visible in central Russia, Mongolia and China, for more adventurous travelers; then 22 July 2009, visible in India and China; then 20 March 2015, visible from the Faroes, if the sky is clear. The next total eclipse of the Sun in mainland Europe is in 2026.

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RFE/RL reports that Richard Hovannisian, one of the Armenian Diaspora’s most respected Genocide Historians has launched a scathing attack on the Armenian Government and the President himself. Very few local Armenians would disagree with what Hovannisian is quoted as saying. However, it is very rare that prominent Armenians in the Diaspora speak out like this.

Richard Hovannisian, a senior professor of Armenian and Near Eastern History at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), claimed that domestic policies pursued by the administration of President Robert Kocharian have alienated a large part of the country’s population and the influential Armenian community in the United States.

“Watching from the outside, we follow with pain the continuing electoral and other illegalities committed in Armenia,” he told RFE/RL in an interview. “We would have loved to see freedom of speech and thought in Armenia, instead of repression, secret police persecution and lies spread by state media.”

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Armenian Forests Community Project, Gosh, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

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Armenian Forests Community Project, Ijevan, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

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Ijevan-Dilijan Road, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Hetq Online 2006

Leaving Ijevan for Yerevan earlier this afternoon the roads were full of people, old and young, transporting wood home to use as fuel and for heating. As an example, the kid in the photo above said that even though his village now had gas, it was too expensive for his family to afford. Wood was the cheapest and most readily available alternative. No wonder then, that deforestation in Armenia has reached catastrophic levels although contrary to popular opinion, this can not be put down to the energy crisis of the early 1990s.

Some would even argue that it is not even socially vulnerable families that have no option but to use wood fires even in Yerevan that are responsible. Simply, oversight mechanisms are not working, corruption is rampant, and businessmen and officials have a lot to gain from the wholescale destruction of Armenia’s last remaining forests. Environmentalists warn that there won’t be any left by 2024 at the present rate of deforestation.

Even so, several local NGOs and international organizations are working on this problem, and in recent years have actually achieved success in saving nature reserves such as Shikahogh — something I wrote about for Oneworld.net.

Government-connected businessmen and state officials engaged in the illegal export of timber from Armenia are mostly to blame for the former Soviet republic’s dwindling number of forests. Whereas 11 per cent of the republic was covered by forests in 1991, the figure stands at below 8 per cent today. Environmentalists warn that unless current trends are reversed, Armenia will be forestless by 2024.

[…]

Meanwhile, public outcry has at least united NGOs in Armenia. Dozens of NGOs working within a coalition to save the nature reserve say that an alternate route should be taken and, already, extensive media coverage has forced the government to suspend construction for 15 days. However, while construction in the reserve has not yet started, bulldozers are still clearing the way for the access road.

[…]

Concern over the fate of Shikahogh and Mtnadzor has also spread far beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet republic. In the influential Armenian Diaspora, Carolyn Mugar, founder of the Armenian Tree Project and Executive Director of the US Farm Aid organization, has already started a letter writing campaign to lobby the Armenian Embassy in Washington.

Since then, the Minister for Transport and Communication, Andranik Manukian, has told the ArmInfo news agency that the government would now look at alternate routes and requested that environmentalists put in as much energy into securing extra finance for the project as they have in protesting. Paradoxically, he also declared that this “change of heart” had nothing to do with the campaign by environmentalists to save Shikahogh.

One thing that struck me about the campaign to save Shikahogh was how a variety of people from all walks of life became involved, and despite all the odds, actually managed to force the Armenian government to overturn its initial decision to construct a highway through it. There were local Armenians, foreigners and Diaspora — young and old, rich and poor, pro-government as well as supporters of the opposition.

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Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition Protest Presidential Elections, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

Following on from what appears to be the continuing persecution of Raffi Hovannisian as we enter pre-election year in Armenia, it seems only right to post the following press release from his newly founded Heritage party. Given that this is not the first time that “undesirables” have faced eviction from their premises, and that this is just one in a series of incidents experienced by Hovannisian and even his wife, it seems particularly relevant given news of the MCA compact signed in Washington yesterday.

IN DEFENSE OF HERITAGE

Since March 4, 2006, Chairman Raffi K. Hovannisian of the Heritage Party and the staff of its central office have been forcibly denied the right of entry into their own place of work, which under the existing contract is theirs until June of this year.

Considering this to be a flagrant infringement, on the part of the incumbent presidency and its ruling clique, of fundamental civil liberties and political freedoms, MP and chairman of the National Democrats’ Alliance Arshak Sadoyan has launched an initiative whereby he has petitioned all political parties in Armenia as well as institutions that are interested in the establishment of democracy in the Republic to raise their voice of protest against this blatant lawlessless.

The authors of this initiative declare that the letter is open to all political forces and public and private organizations which choose to demonstrate their solidarity on this matter.

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Opposition protest outcome of 2003 Presidential Elections, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

RFE/RL reports that the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Armenian Foreign Minister participated in the signing ceremony of a compact that will see Armenia receive $235 million in financial assistance over the next five years. According to RFE/RL the signing and disbursal of the money had been delayed “pending a demonstration by Armenia of its commitment to strengthening democratic institutions and ensuring fair elections in 2007-08.”

The money from the MCC will be disbursed over a five-year period and will be contingent on Armenia’s policy performance in three areas: “ruling justly, investing in people, and encouraging economic freedom.” More specifically, Rice said that the United States expects Armenia to deliver on its pledges to improve the conduct of national elections.

“Armenia must continue to advance its democratic reforms,” she said. “International and domestic monitors did express concerns about the conduct of the recent constitutional referendum. And the Armenian government has acknowledged these difficulties and pledged to improve the conduct of the elections to be held in 2007 and 2008.”

Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanian agreed. “The elections of 2007 and 2008 that you refer to will test our democratic practices,” he said. “Our task until then is to partner with the United States and European governments to implement the necessary corrective steps.”

Lovely. Declarative statements and no sign of anything changing on the ground in terms of democratization, although the money can apparently be stopped if next year’s parliamentary elections and the 2008 presidential election resemble those that preceded them. Unfortunately, however, Washington-based analyst Richard Giragosian is not so convinced.

[…] according to Giragosian, “the feeling is that the Armenians have not really learned any lessons from past electoral violations and are still likely to resort to their habitual ballot rigging.” The key question, he said, is one of degree, that is, how blatant will the vote rigging and other types of election fraud be in practice.

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Azerbaijani Prisoner of War (PoW), Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

RFE/RL reports that the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has again threatened resuming hostilities in order to resolve the long-standing conflict with Armenia over the mainy Armenian inhabited territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Addressing members of the former KGB, the Azerbaijani National Security Service (NSS), Aliyev did at least state that there was still the opportunity for the peaceful resolution of the conflict. Of course, this could all be brinkmanship, but it’s nonetheless dangerous.

“I think that the peace potential has not yet been exhausted. Therefore, we will of course remain faithful to the peace process,” Aliev said in remarks broadcast by the Azerbaijani TV station ANS. “But at the same time, we must be ready for any eventuality and that is why Azerbaijan has stepped up its army building efforts in recent years.

“Our military spending has increased over the past years, and it will increase further. This is our sovereign right, this is our job. Our country is in a state of war.”

“The opposite side must know that Azerbaijan is capable of securing its territorial integrity through war at any moment,” he added.

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Refugee, Silikyan, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

After mentioning the problem of Internally Placed Persons (IDPs) as a result of cross border shelling, landmines, the deterioration of infrastructure and a lack of investment in areas bordering Azerbaijan it was coincidental but interesting to be asked by Hetq Online to interview the new Country Director of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) this morning. I had previously interviewed Engebretsen’s predecessor a year and half or so ago.

Central to this brief interview was the issue of possibly inflated figure for the number of refugees and IDPs in Armenia and the necessity for allowing refugees and IDPs to return to their homes in the event of a peace deal being signed to end the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Regardless of what many Armenians might think, the return of territory and the right to return for Azerbaijani refugees will be part of any deal.

OK: When I interviewed your predecessor, Tim Straight, about a year and a half ago, he mentioned that a survey on Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) was going to be taken in Armenia in cooperation with the Armenian Government. This is a new focus for the NRC, and I wondered has the survey been held and what were the findings?

KE: It was held and the result was that the figures for the number of IDPs in Armenia decreased considerably from 70,000 to 8,000.

OK: That’s quite a decrease. We’re talking about those regions of Armenia bordering Azerbaijan where there’s still a problem with landmines as well as a lack of infrastructure and investment so what’s the reason for this reduction?

KE: That’s still a problem, but I don’t know what the reason is for this reduction. However, I would suspect that the explanation is the same when it comes to refugees and the population in general. A lot of people flee the country for a while. They go to Russia or the United States and we hope that they’ll come back one day.

OK: There’s been a survey on IDPs, but another contentious issue is the number of refugees [from Azerbaijan] in the country. We’re still working with the figure of over 250,000, but I’ve heard anecdotal evidence that it might be as low as 80-90,000. It’s significantly smaller as well. Does anybody know?

KE: No one knows, but UNHCR is holding a survey now and I think that the number of refugees in Armenia will also be lowered quite a lot as well. The Government has its figure, but we think that it’s too high and UNHCR is absolutely certain that this number will go down after the survey is completed this year.

OK: At the moment there’s a lot of talk about the return of IDPs in Azerbaijan and refugees in Armenia to their former homes in and around Nagorno Karabakh once a peace deal is signed. Most recently, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State referred to this issue and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) is also including the matter on its agenda. Is the Norwegian Refugee Council and UNHCR involved in this matter?

KE: No, in Armenia we are not. However, our office in Baku is looking into this very carefully, of course. It should happen, but the situation in Azerbaijan is very different from that in Armenia because here we’re still struggling with the economy, whereas Azerbaijan has become very, very rich. If something were to happen regarding Nagorno Karabakh or the areas surrounding it, that would have to happen after some kind of peace deal.

OK: When some people talk of the return of IDPs to territory surrounding Nagorno Karabakh, and we’re talking about Azerbaijanis and Kurds, some Armenians don’t understand why there should be the “right to return” included in any peace deal. Maybe this is a political question, perhaps, but in your opinion, why is it important that refugees and IDPs have the “right to return?”

KE: Well, lets put Nagorno Karabakh aside and talk about the area surrounding it. As far as I understand, and this is accepted by Armenia as well, that land is considered to be an occupied area — a security zone around Karabakh. If there was an agreement then I guess that this area surrounding Karabakh would be given back to the Azeris. I don’t know much about this, but I think that this would be the situation.

If this happened, then of course the people that lived there would be entitled to return to their homes. That’s the way I see it.

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The BBC reports that even if the pro-Russian Yanukovych looks set to take more votes than his Orange Revolution counterparts, democratization appears to continue. This is marvellous news, and if that is the case, I’m glad, although a little jealous because of the situation here. Still, we can but hope that something unprecedented will happen during the parliamentary elections scheduled for Armenia next year.

The rival leaders of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution are considering reuniting to try to keep out a pro-Russian party that seems to have polled most votes.

Early results in the parliamentary poll suggest President Viktor Yushchenko’s party was beaten into third place.

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Former PM Viktor Yanukovych appears to have taken the largest vote share.

With 20% of the vote counted, election commission officials put Mr Yanukovych’s party in the lead with 25.6%, closely followed by Ms Tymoshenko’s party with 23.6%.

The president’s party trails in third place with 17.2%.

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Observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe have described the election as “free and fair”.

A victory for Mr Yanukovych - who was written off a year ago - would be a dramatic comeback.

He was declared the winner of the presidential election in November 2004, but allegations of widespread vote-rigging sent hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians out on to the streets to demand change.

In what became known as the Orange Revolution, the election result was overturned and Mr Yushchenko went on to win a re-run.

The full story can be read here, but suffice it to say that if it can happen in Ukraine, it can happen in Armenia. The only unanswered question is whether a “velvet revolution” is necessary first. It also implies that elections in Armenia’s northern neighbor, Georgia, will probably continue to be democratic in the future. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

I suppose I should have included reference to a very cool Armenian priest with his own blog in the previous post, but think that he deserves a mention in his own right. Via the rather aesthetically pleasing Artyom Reader comes word that not only is the Armenian priest in question cool, but he’s a new addition to the Armenian blogosphere. This guy sounds fantastic.

A couple of weeks ago I posted about the trip organized by Fr. Vazgen, the pastor of the St. Peter Armenian Church in Glendale, to Rwanda where he planned to collect testimonies from people that survived the genocide in Rwanda as well as to raise awareness of the ongoing genocide in Sudan. Fr. Vazgen has given us all an example of the virtue of raising one’s voice for the victims of genocide, not just of those from the past, but more importantly for those who suffer it now.

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