“Hayastani Hanrapetutyun” carries an Armenpress interview with Washington’s chief Karabakh negotiator, Steven Mann, in which he makes a case for a quick settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute. Mann warns that failure to make further progress in peace talks is fraught with “serious dangers.” He believes that the signing of a framework peace deal this year is “not only possible but necessary.”

Karabakh is also a major theme of Armenpress’s separate interview, also published by “Hayastani Hanrapetutyun,” with the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana. “The regional conflicts do not allow for the development of democracy in the South Caucasus countries,” Solana is quoted as saying. “They are also thwarting regional cooperation. The regional conflicts must be resolved and that is the obligation of those countries.” The European Union is ready to help them do that, Solana adds.

http://www.armenialiberty.org/press/press/en/2006/03/70AF30FF-4908-4914-906D-9E2D70F4C263.ASP

http://www.newneighbors.am/

For example, no sooner than we have this exchange of comments comes the following news:

Yesterday the head of the International Crisis group Sabina Fraser rendered a press conference in Washington during which she announced, “The Nagorno Karabakh conflict is not frozen: the informational about human losses in the region testifies to this”.

[…]

Sabina Fraser has also mentioned that the territories under the control of the Armenians outside the territory of Karabakh “are destroyed and there is a need of reconstruction”. “The conflict region is especially sensitive taking into account its geographical setting”, she said mentioning that the restart of military activity in Karabakh can involve Russia, Iran, Georgia and Turkey into the conflict.

It won’t be easy, it won’t be quick and most probably it will be problematic to the extreme, but one day it will happen. When is the only thing we don’t know.

This is a debate about Armenians and Turks. It’s not about what happened in Dresden, Bosnia, Hiroshima or anywhere else. Fact is this is a volatile region. Foreign powers would be hesitant to invest a penny unless they get guarantees that a peace deal will actually be enforced once it is signed. Logic does not apply to peoples living in this region, especially to Armenians. True sustainable democracy as well as diplomacy still have yet to come into place in this region, and until they start to I would not expect a peace deal, return of refugees, lands or anything else. What will happen as a result is really hard to say, although may observers seem to believe that Armenia will suffer long term.

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but this is what I am believing more and more each day. And it’s too bad I do, I admit.

http://www.iht.it/arte/bih/pan2e.htm

Or what about Dresden?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dresden

http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWdresden.htm

And they will return because nobody is going to leave them empty. Other than Armenians, of course, because there is very little settlement going on in anywhere other than Lachin and Kelbajar. There is absolutely none in Fizuli and Aghdam and an insignificant number of people in Zangelan.

Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, refugees and IDPs are living in squalid refugee camps so if the international community comes and says here’s a lot of money to go rebuild your homes they most probably will. They have not become integrated into larger Azerbaijani society. Actually, this has been official policy.

Armenians are unique in that they have a logic system that defies what coherent, logical thought may be for those looking in or outsiders trying to live with them. Although Armenians lived side by side in many villages throughout Armenia before the war, such as in “Voskedab”, now called “Shirazlu” located not far from Ararat, I really doubt that they will ever live closely again or any time soon. It will take decades if it does, it won’t happen overnight when a peace deal is signed. And sorry but I have a hard time believing that cities like Aghdam will ever be rebuilt. It will be up to the Azeri side to do so regardless.

Besides, Aliev keeps threatening to restart the war with the most recent threats on March 28. It’s hard to get everything your way when you break a cease fire and thus throw out the cards you had already laid out on the table, even though all bets were not yet off. So the return of refugees, lands, or anything else is still up in the air and far from reality as far as I’m concerned.

Certainly, it’s not a symbolic gesture on the part of Armenia — it’s as crucial to a peace settlement as is the status of Karabakh. Five or possibly six regions outside of Karabakh would be returned to Azerbaijan and refugees — or actually, IDPs — would return. Such aspects of peace settlements are not new. People returned to their homes after total devastation during Vietnam, Bosnia and Kosovo.

It will just take a long time and be very problematic. If you’re referring to Shushi/a — as opposed to Aghdam and other Azeri villages and towns outside of Karabakh — then yes, maybe this is symbolic and crtainly, another matter entirely. However, it is not referred to in the context of the right to return to territory outside of Karabakh proper.

Likely it is being discussed, but not in the context of what the international community hopes is a withdrawal of Armenian forces from 5 or 6 of 7 regions at the beginning of a possible phased peace deal. Incidenty, this article recently went out on RFE/RL and says a lot about the fact that a return of refugees/IDPs would need to occur in the opinion of the international community.

U.S. Urges Return Of Displaced Azeris

The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Asia, Daniel Fried, today called for the return of all internally-displaced Azerbaijanis to lands that have been occupied by ethnic-Armenian forces since 1994, RFE/RL’s Azerbaijani Service reported.

Addressing reporters in Baku, Fried also cautioned against resumption of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The process of Azerbaijanis returning to Azerbaijani lands should begin as soon as possible and the war would be a catastrophe for everyone.”

An estimated 600,000 Azeris and Kurds from areas surrounding Karabakh were driven from their homes when Armenian forces moved into Azerbaijan in the early 1990s.

The United States co-chairs the Minsk Group of nations that have been charged by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to help Armenia and Azerbaijan settle their 18-year-old dispute. France and Russia are the other co-chairs.

Steven Mann, the U.S. envoy to the Minsk Group, today said in Baku that both Armenia and Azerbaijan have an opportunity to achieve some of their demands this year.

Mann and Fried are expected to travel to Armenia later this week before attending a Minsk Group meeting in Istanbul.

(with additional material from Turan, Day.Az, APA)