Azerbaijani Prisoner of War (PoW), Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

RFE/RL reports that the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has again threatened resuming hostilities in order to resolve the long-standing conflict with Armenia over the mainy Armenian inhabited territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Addressing members of the former KGB, the Azerbaijani National Security Service (NSS), Aliyev did at least state that there was still the opportunity for the peaceful resolution of the conflict. Of course, this could all be brinkmanship, but it’s nonetheless dangerous.

“I think that the peace potential has not yet been exhausted. Therefore, we will of course remain faithful to the peace process,” Aliev said in remarks broadcast by the Azerbaijani TV station ANS. “But at the same time, we must be ready for any eventuality and that is why Azerbaijan has stepped up its army building efforts in recent years.

“Our military spending has increased over the past years, and it will increase further. This is our sovereign right, this is our job. Our country is in a state of war.”

“The opposite side must know that Azerbaijan is capable of securing its territorial integrity through war at any moment,” he added.

In response to Aliyev’s increasingly bellicose statments in recent months, the Armenian President Robert Kocharian has threatened to recognize the independence of the self-declared Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. Sounds a little dangerous to me and pretty much akin to a declaration of war from the Armenian side, but anyway, the European Union has already stepped in to criticize Aliyev’s statement.

“An attempt on the Azeri side to resolve the conflict by military means will have very serious consequences,” Peter Semneby told RFE/RL. “It may not be successful in the first place, and it will also seriously damage Azerbaijan in terms of its investment climate and reliability as a partner.”

Aliev’s chief foreign policy aide, Novruz Mamedov, was quick to dismiss the warning. “If Azerbaijan can indeed discredit itself as a partner if it starts war to liberate its own lands, how come that Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories in a war and has kept them under occupation for 15 years, but this has not discredited Armenia anyhow?” Mamedov told the Azerbaijani ATV channel.

Meanwhile, the international mediators insist that the peace process may still be salvaged but seem undecided about their next steps. Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said last week that they will either visit the conflict zone or arrange another round of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations soon.

It’s difficult to say what will happen next. Certainly, while it is unlikely that war would resume in the next year at least, increased military spending in Azerbaijan might put the Republic in a position to win back Karabakh and territory currently under its control within the next five. Today.az reports that others consider that failure to resolve the conflict will cripple Armenia economically while the rest of the South Caucasus moves ahead.

“The resolution of conflict in the South Caucasus is one of the EU’s priorities. It signals to more active attraction of the organization to the resolution of the problem situation,” Semneby underlined in his interview for Radio Liberty. EU’s mandate in the issue has been expanded and resolution of conflict situation has been included in it.

“Unless the conflict is resolved, Armenia might turn out in isolation,” the Swiss diplomat stressed.

Meanwhile, some less than moderate voices in neighboring Turkey believe that the time for negotiations is over and that Azerbaijan should indeed break the 1994 ceasefire. A Major General reservist says that after resolving what I assume he means are Azerbaijan’s own internal political problems, hostilities should resume.

“Neither the EU nor the US will prevent Azerbaijan from making an attempt to resolve the problem. Turkey must be ready to give any help because Azerbaijan is important country for the world powers.”

According to some analysts, Armenian-backed forces would not necessarily be in such a favorable position if the war was to resume. In a recent interview with Hetq Online, for example, the Caucasus Editor of the Institute of War & Peace Reporting summarized Armenian victory on the battlefield in the early 1990s as contributable to three issues.

I see the end of the conflict in 1994 as being the result of three factors: the Armenians were better prepared and more disciplined; Azerbaijan was in political chaos for most of the duration of the conflict; the Russians helped both sides but undoubtedly helped the Armenians more.

Meanwhile, nationalists in Armenia have stated in the past two months that with or without a phased peace settlement, war will resume in the future and therefore, the defensive positions that Armenian forces currently hold are vital in preparing for what they say is now inevitable. Seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me, and I can only hope that international pressure is put on Azerbaijan to concede with regards to the status of Nagorno Karabakh.

Incidently, a recent analysis by Noyan Tapan’s David Petrosyan which I can’t unfortunately find at the moment reckoned that neither side would be able to gain territory from the other in case of a new outbreak of war in and around Karabakh. Instead, fighting would claim several thousand lives and end with a new ceasefire several weeks later. What would happen in the future, however, is anybody’s guess.

Currently, Armenia’s armed forces number 60,000 with a military budget standing at 6.4 percent of GDP to make $162 million in 2005. Azerbaijan has around the same number of troops (67,000-72,000), but has increased military spending in 2006 to reach $650 million or 3.2 percent of GDP. When it comes to taking defensive positions, however, it seems likely that air power will play its part and for now, neither side seems well equipped.

Although there are 30 Mig 29 fighters in Armenia they are apparently attached to the Russian base in Gyumri so are hardly likely to be used in any fighting in Karabakh. Other than that, both sides have only a few dozen strike or interceptor aircraft. On this basis alone, until Azerbaijan increases its military budget to $1 billion (equal to Armenia’s entire state budget) and specifically strengthens its airforce, I don’t think there will be war just yet.

However, information on Azerbaijan’s military spending is hard to come by.

If anyone knows of any links to any links to a breakdown of how that extra money is being spent, please post them. Incidently, Nagorno Karabakh apparently has around 20,000 troops with 60,000 reservists, but this figure sounds too high to me considering emigration from the territory since the 1994 ceasefire. Armenia has between 32-350,000 reservists while Azerbaijan boasts between 82,000-1.3 milion due to its larger size.

Even so, for now at least, the matter is how do you take dug-in and mined defensive positions without an airforce or a large number of surface-surface missiles. Someone needs to be monitoring the procurement of arms in both Republics, and Azerbaijan in particular.