Of course the issue is a political one as well. You cannot separate the economic from the political; you’re talking about relations between two states (economic or otherwise), and states are political units. Had it been from a purely economic perspective (which it NEVER is) I would have advocated open relations between the two countries (so long as one does not dominate the other and create hierarchies of course). With regards to being grateful to Turkey, not really, Turkey is using it as a leverage for the genocide issue (mostly has to do with that, and less to do with the Karabakh issue and Turkey’s attempts to get the region under its influence) and mark my words, soon enough the Armenian position will shift from a “neutral” one to a “positive” one (positive that is for the Turkish government). While it is true that the closing of the border is actually hindering economic growth in eastern Turkey, Armenia’s position on this issue (and its constant bashing of Armenian lobbies for pushing the Armenian Genocide issue) is no better and is doomed to fail in the long run, given geopolitical realities and considerations. The Genocide issue needs to be pushed now more than ever, especially by the Armenian government, before it’s too late . A stronger, economically developed Turkey (in terms of its eastern regions) would be more bold in attacking Armenia (politically - well, even militarily). Genocide recognition on the other hand, if it happens now (or in the very near future, which I cannot really see happening, thanks to our beloved government’s willing impotence when it comes to that) will place Armenian-Turkish relations on a different level.

As for Turks buying Yerevan (??), I never talked about buying. My point was strictly in terms of trade and products/production, not real estate or whatever…

Anyway, if the Armenian government is going to only speak on behalf of its citizens (I guess that is the whole point of citizenship), then it shouldn’t expect anything (no money, no lobbying, nothing) from the diaspora. At the moment it’s demanding both money, lobbying, etc. and in return it’s saying, “keep your mouths shut, we will do whatever is to the best interest of our citizens”. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. It’s that simple. So Mr. Oskanian should shut the hell up (I posted something on that a few days ago). If it’s that easy for the Armenian government to give up on the diaspora, then I can assure you, it’s doubly easier for the diaspora to give up on Armenia, and at the end of the day, it’s not the diaspora that will suffer, because the diaspora is mostly living a luxurious life. Keep in mind that even the most patient person (and I think the diaspora has been very patient so far - I recommend that you post about that instead of bashing Tashnags - although mind you, I am not a supporter of Tashnagtsutyun) will finally wake up and realize that he’s just being used.

I am disgusted by the elitist attitude of the Armenian government towards the diaspora. Well if they are so proud of “being the ones in control” (to the extent that they flaunt it in our faces every time we criticize them), let them “prove themselves”, and let them do it without our help.

A disgusted diasporan

I still believe that the economic “reasons” for not opening the border are really political dressed up. Besides, it isn’t Armenia keeping the border closed, it’s Turkey so maybe ANCA, the ARF-D and everybody else should be applauding Turkey for its “kindness” and interest in “developing” Armenia. Is that what you’re saying?

Instead, however, someone I know who says that the opening of the border would result in a flood of cheap Turkish goods into Armenia even thought that an “open border” meant that Turkish trucks and cars could cross over at any point whenever they felt like it. Turks would flook enmasse to Yerevan and buy everything up and take over Armenia. This is total paranoia, and not least because they didn’t do that in Georgia and they won’t do that here. Why?

Because you have only one or two border crossings controlled by the military and customs. Like other countries you’d also have immigration control. Besides, if they wanted to do what most Dashnaks say they would they could do that via Georgia. Instead, the official policy is to keep the border closed because it harms the long term economic future of Armenia. If not, someone better start protesting outside ANCA’s office in Washington and tell them to shut the f*** up when it comes to putting pressure on the State Department to force Turkey to open the border.

But nobody does because the argument against opening the border is not economic. It’s simply politics. For Turkish nationalists it’s to try to get Genocide Recognition off the Armenian agenda as well as out of solidarity for Azerbaijan who actually protested to Ankara the last time we seemed close to opening the border. For Armenian nationalists it’s just a way of saying we don’t like or trust the Turks and in no way do we ever want “normalized” relations whatever the cost to Armenia.

Otherwise, I’d say that both Turkey and Azerbaijan would have agreed to open the border long ago if the Armenian nationalist argument that it would destroy Armenia was correct. However, they haven’t and don’t seem particularly keen to do so anytime soon. Now, Armenia might not benefit at all in the short term, but long term opportunities will be there as long as the Armenian Government fights corruption and promotes the local economy including foreign direct investment.

In terms of an opened border benefitting regions along the border such as Shirak–when I went to the Gyumri open market the last time I visited in 2002 nearly all the goods on sale were Turkish. So if selling such cheap goods which are in plentiful supply are benefitting people there now, I really don’t understand how the opened border would help them more, besides the fact that the goods they buy would probably be cheaper and sell cheaper. Really, so what? Who can really say that prices would fall on Turkish goods? Given the paradoxes that exist in Armenia’s supposed booming economy, I can’t say I believe that.

Perhaps we should ask the people in Gyumri what they think, and certainly the Diaspora lobbying groups should not oppose the new Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan railway that will bypass Armenia.

But let’s face it, the problems of the local economy is down to the Government and closed borders. That I don’t see a huge amount of Turkish goods in Georgia seems to indicate that, and let’s also admit the number one issue.

Economic issues used against the opening of the border are not based on fact, but rather an individual’s opinion of Turkey and whether that person harbors dreams of the return of territory. Then arguments against the opening of the border are created to hide a nationalist agenda.

Otherwise there have been plenty of studies on the long term implications of opening the border with Turkey and not least, one fact most of all. Armenia is TOO SMALL a market for foreign investors and local businessmen. They need open borders to export their goods, and some are even having to consider investing in Georgia as a result.

Again, I repeat. The situation with imported Turkish goods apears greater in Armenia than in Georgia whichhas an open border with Turkey as well as sea ports to the outside world, so what’s the reason for that?

So, I would argue that the influx of cheap Turkish goods has as much to do with the state of the local economy, and manufacturering base in particular, as wellas poverty. Of course, Armenian logic defies the concept of openborders that most countries follow, I was forgetting that…

Basically, it’s a political and NOT economic issue, which is why while the ARF-D opposes the opening of the border because its agenda is to see the return of lands in Eastern Turkey, the same party’s lobbying wing uses the closed border to bash Ankara at any given opportunity. For example:

The ANCA supports a hard-earmark of at least $90 million for Armenia for fiscal year 2007 to help offset the devastating effects of the Turkish and Azerbaijani blockades, estimated, according to World Bank figures, at over $570 million a year, and to help the Armenian people overcome the obstacles they face as they expand their economic partnership with the United States and their integration into the international economic system.

According to the World Bank, the blockades of Armenia are costing Armenia between 30% to 38% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and blocking up to 50% of Armenia’s potential exports.

Using the World Bank figure for Armenia’s 2000 GDP of $1.9 billion, the Turkish and Azerbaijani blockades costs Armenia between $570 million to $722 million annually.

In human terms, these blockades have resulted in economic hardships that have caused over 800,000 Armenians to leave their homeland out of desperation.

Despite strong Congressional opposition to these illegal blockades, the Administration has not taken any meaningful steps to bring them to an end.

http://www.anca.org/hill_staff/position_papers.php?ppid=7

Perhaps ANCA should just keep their mouths shut or at least stop pretending that their real line is the opposite to what they say in Washington?

I don’t know what this means, but whatever. I guess people who are against the border unconditionally opening are not “level headed.” I suppose I must be a “nationalist” then.

In terms of an opened border benefitting regions along the border such as Shirak–when I went to the Gyumri open market the last time I visited in 2002 nearly all the goods on sale were Turkish. So if selling such cheap goods which are in plentiful supply are benefitting people there now, I really don’t understand how the opened border would help them more, besides the fact that the goods they buy would probably be cheaper and sell cheaper. Really, so what? Who can really say that prices would fall on Turkish goods? Given the paradoxes that exist in Armenia’s supposed booming economy, I can’t say I believe that.

I’m sounding like a broken record regarding this topic. Really, if the only thing Diasporans are happy about is being able to drive across the border for a closer look at Mt. Ararat or visit Ani, they need to seriously weigh the long-term pros and cons. But everyone should know that there are flights a couple of times a week to Istanbul from Yerevan, then connecting flights to Eastern Turkey, which I’m sure are pretty reasonable. All you need is a US or European passport I would imagine to enter. In terms of seeing Ararat up close, just drive out to the Ararat region and park along the road, have a picnic, talk to farmers, or whatever.

Anyway, the border will open soon enough because Armenia has repeatedly stated it has no preconditions for doing so. Turkey on the other had has some, including Armenia relenting on the Genocide issue as well as Armenia making drastic concessions regarding the NK conflict. If the Diaspora and Armenian citizens are OK with that, which Onnik argues they are, then by all means, let’s open the border. I can’t wait. No, really.

As for Armenian leaders who milk all the money, well, that is indeed very sad, but to make such a compromise as unconditional submission to Turkish demands (what’s next, closing Armenia’s “border” with Karabakh just to suit Turkish interests?) cannot be justified by it… Instead people should work on changing the system, getting rid of those corrupt people, etc. Actually it is these corrupt people who advocate unconditional economic ties with Turkey, and they do so both for their own benefit as well as to divert the people’s attention from the real problem and instead put a bandaid on the wound…

Personally, I think Turkey needs to recognize the Genocide not just as a matter of historical justice, but also because it’s necessary for them to put their own house in order as well.

Whatever the ARF-D (Dashnaks) might say about such things, for most Armenians it doesn’t matter at all. Of course, that doesn’t mean they don’t care about the Genocide. They do. However, they also know that a closed border doesn’t help the economy much. In the Shirak region of Armenia that borders Turkey that’s especially true. Interestingly one smart young Armenian I know who works on a Cafesjian funded enterprise put it simply.

“We need the border open for the economy to develop, but for our own peace of mind to know that it can’t happen again, we need Turkey to acknowledge the massacres as Genocide,” he said. Basically, most level headed Armenians want the border open, and some probably without Genocide recognition although they will still commemorate it on 24 April. Simply it’s the nationalists who don’t, and they constitute a minority in Armenia.

Yerevan Poll Finds Public Support For Open Border With Turkey

By Emil Danielyan

Most residents of Yerevan support the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border and do not firmly object to Turkey’s membership in the European Union, according to an opinion poll published on Thursday.

Vox Populi, an independent polling organization, said 57 percent of 650 people interviewed by phone in the capital this month are in favor of an unconditional establishment of direct commercial links between Armenia and Turkey pursued by their government. It said only one third of them are opposed to that, while the other 10 percent are undecided.

The findings of the poll reflect the dominant mood among Armenia’s leading businesspeople. Most of them believe that an open border with Turkey would reduce the disproportionately high transportation costs in Armenia’s external trade and open the Turkish market to Armenian exporters. They as well as other proponents of the idea say the existence of an alternative trade route would also put Armenia in a much stronger position to negotiate lower cargo transit fees with Georgia, its main conduit to the outside world.

However, skeptics, notably the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), a junior partner in the ruling coalition, warn of Armenia’s potential economic dependence on its historic foe. They say that cheap Turkish consumer goods would flood the Armenian market and weak havoc on local manufacturers.

Dashnaktsutyun leaders also believe that a full normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is impossible without Ankara’s recognition of the 1915 genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.

Official Yerevan also insists on Turkish recognition of the genocide, but unlike Dashnaktsutyun, does not regard it as a precondition for improved ties. It has long been pressing Ankara to lift the embargo which it imposed on Armenia out of solidarity with Azerbaijan more than a decade ago.

Vox Populi said only 19 percent of those polled are convinced that modern-day Turkey is responsible for the slaughter of some 1.5 million Armenians. Twenty-five percent of them are inclined to share that view, while the others disagree, have doubts or find it difficult to answer the question.

The pollsters also found that 43 percent of their respondents are opposed to Turkey’s accession to the European Union which became a real possibility with the publication of a positive report by the bloc’s executive Commission on Wednesday. Only 17 percent voiced their support for the Turkish entry into the EU, with the remaining 40 percent having no clear opinion on the issue.

In an interview with RFE/RL this week, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said Armenia believes that Turkey is still far from meeting EU membership criteria and is therefore not prepared to begin accession talks.

http://www.cilicia.com/2006/04/april-fools_02.html