Montenegro Precedent for Karabakh?

Azerbaijani Prisoner of War (PoW), Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994
RFE/RL reports that the Armenian Foreign Ministry has welcomed Montenegro’s 21 May referendum to determine whether it should declare independence from Serbia. The statement comes just days before the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents are due to meet once again in the hope that a framework agreement to resolve the long standing conflict over Nagorno Karabakh can be agreed upon.
Central to the current proposal on the table is a similar referendum that would be held in Karabakh 10-15 years in the future.
For official Yerevan, the Montenegro referendum sets another important precedent of the principle of self-determination of peoples superseding that of territorial integrity of states. Leaders of some of Armenia’s main political parties said last week that its outcome will make it easier for the Karabakh Armenians to win international recognition of their secession from Azerbaijan.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry statement said: “In this peaceful separation, Armenia considers particularly important the fact that the Montenegrin people’s right to self-determination was expressed by means of a referendum, which proves that in international relations referendum remains a universally accepted and civilized way of resolving such problems.”
The statement clearly referred to an international peace plan currently considered by the parties to the Karabakh conflict. The plan reportedly calls for a referendum on Karabakh’s status within 10 to 15 years from the start of a gradual Armenian withdrawal from six of the seven Azerbaijani districts surrounding the disputed enclave. The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be facing growing international pressure to accept this formula.












