Momentum Towards Karabakh Peace Continues
Church Service, Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994
RFE/RL reports that momentum towards a Karabakh peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues. Although largely ignored until the end of last year by the local media with the notable exception of RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan, failure to reach agreement at a presidential summit in Rambouillet doesn’t seem to have slowed down the process. In fact, given that 2006 is seen as the last opportunity to reach a settlement for some time, the pressure on both sides appears to be increasing.
International mediators urged Armenia and Azerbaijan on Thursday to take the final step towards a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, saying that a framework peace accord is now within their reach.
High-level diplomats from France, Russia and the United States made the appeal as they wrapped up an extraordinary joint visit to Baku and Yerevan which produced agreement on the next Armenian-Azerbaijani summit on Karabakh. A spokesman for President Robert Kocharian told RFE/RL that the Armenian leader and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliev, will meet on the sidelines of a summit of Black Sea nations which is scheduled to take place in Romania’s capital Bucharest on June 5.
In a joint statement read out to the media after their talks with Kocharian, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and a top French diplomat, Pierre Morel, indicated that they expect that meeting to yield a breakthrough in the prolonged peace process. They stressed that “now is the time for the sides to reach agreement on the basic principles of a settlement.”
The decision by the three men to accompany lower-level American, French and Russian diplomats co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group on their latest round of shuttle diplomacy is quite significant in itself. The three mediating powers seem to be making a last-ditch attempt to secure a Karabakh peace deal before the end of this year. They have warned that their failure to do so would delay a settlement until after presidential elections due in Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2007 and 2008.
Rumors surrounding the details of an apparent framework agreement that have been circuting since the beginning of 2005 seem to be largely confirmed, albeit unofficialy. That is, Armenia would withdraw from six of seven territories currently under its control surrounding Karabakh which would itself possibly be internationally recognized as an Armenian protectorate until a referendum to determine its final status is held 10-15 years in the future after confidence building measures are in place.
Meanwhile, RFE/RL carries a summary of commentary on the continued push to find a solution to the conflict from two local newspapers.
Haykakan Zhamanak” says the visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia by high-ranking American, French and Russian diplomats spearheading the Karabakh peace process is “unprecedented in terms of its seriousness.” The paper says their statement made in Baku on Wednesday was also unprecedented. “It shows that the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is entering an unprecedented phase, after which the process will not boil down to mere statements and comments.”
“Hayots Ashkhar” says the visit comes amid “unusually strong pressure” facing the Armenian side.
Ironically, it is believed that Armenia is ready to sign such a deal, but the problem lies with Azerbaijan and its president, Ilham Aliyev, who has threatened to resume hostilities now that it can significantly increase its military expenditure thanks to a huge influx of petrodollars. However, we still don’t know what Bush said to Aliyev when the two presidents met in Washington last month.
On the other hand, prominent if notorious war veterans such as the Deputy Defense Minister, Lieutenant General Manvel Grigorian, have spoken out against Armenia making concessions to Azerbaijan. With similar rhetoric coming from within Azerbaijani, only time will tell.
I don’t understand the point of the two presidents meeting again when Aliyev effectively walked away from the peace deal in February. If he and Azeris cannot let go of the fact that they lost Karabagh, it makes no sense to meet, especially when the same offer is on the table, which overwhelmingly weighs in Azerbaijan’s favor. Whatever. Let’s not expect something from this second meeting. I for one am not hopeful as I doubt anything is going to change. If anything Azerbaijan should now be forced to sign a document ensuring that the people of Karabagh hold an immediate referendum to determine their status and not wait 10-15 years. He already turned that offer down, and it makes no sense to give him a second chance at signing it. I think this is the most important issue regarding the resolution of this problem. And it won’t be resolved unless he once and for all agrees to give up Karabagh immediately in a peace deal.
Comment by Christian — May 26, 2006 @ 12:01 pm
Garo, that the two presidents are meeting again says a lot in itself. However, it depends a lot on what Bush and Aliyev spoke about in Washnington last month. On the other hand, Aliyev appears to think he is in a strong enough position to resist pressure to concede, and that’s probably the main point. A peace solution does not really depend on the two presidents, but more on international pressure applied on what are weak leaders in their respective countries.
Both came to power after questionable elections and maintain their positions through media censorship and the violation of human rights as well as democratic freedoms. So, on the one hand, if the West wants a deal now it can get it, but there’s also the idea that both authoritarian regimes represent a certain amount of “stability” in what is a very volatile region. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Armenia is ready to sign and will have no choice if Azerbaijan does agree to the idea of a referendum in 10-15 years.
Which brings us to Aliyev. With US concerns about Iran and the need for Azerbaijan as a strategic ally, the Azeri President might well think he can get away with opposing the ideas of very fundamental concerns that are necessary for a peace deal to be workable. Ara Manoogian has more on this over at Martuni or Bust.
Ara has it right when he says that if the U.S. stations military forces in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Karabakh are somewhat limited in what they can do in the event of a resumption of military hostilities. Likewise, one guesses that the U.S. would love to have the territory under Armenian control near the Iranian border back under Azerbaijani authority.
I’m not of Ara’s opinion that WWIII will break out, but actually that the U.S. and Europe want an economically integrated and politically stable South Caucasus region. Regardless, yes, it’s hard to say what will happen, and yes, it all depends on Aliyev, but I think that we shouldn’t discount larger U.S. intentions in the surrounding region within the next few years from the equation.
If Bush wants a solution to the Karabakh conflict, and if he wants the territory surrounding Karabakh returned to Azerbaijan, I don’t doubt that he can get it. Regardless, one things for sure.
Life in the South Caucasus certainly ain’t dull.
Comment by Onnik — May 26, 2006 @ 2:34 pm