Comments on: Momentum Towards Karabakh Peace Continues http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2006/05/25/momentum-towards-karabakh-peace-continues-2/ Journalism and Photography from Armenia and the Surrounding Region Fri, 25 Jul 2008 12:37:02 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1-alpha by: Onnik http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2006/05/25/momentum-towards-karabakh-peace-continues-2/#comment-1944 Fri, 26 May 2006 14:34:54 +0100 http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2006/05/25/momentum-towards-karabakh-peace-continues-2/#comment-1944 Garo, that the two presidents are meeting again says a lot in itself. However, it depends a lot on what Bush and Aliyev spoke about in Washnington last month. On the other hand, Aliyev appears to think he is in a strong enough position to resist pressure to concede, and that's probably the main point. A peace solution does not really depend on the two presidents, but more on international pressure applied on what are weak leaders in their respective countries. Both came to power after questionable elections and maintain their positions through media censorship and the violation of human rights as well as democratic freedoms. So, on the one hand, if the West wants a deal now it can get it, but there's also the idea that both authoritarian regimes represent a certain amount of "stability" in what is a very volatile region. We'll just have to wait and see. Armenia is ready to sign and will have no choice if Azerbaijan does agree to the idea of a referendum in 10-15 years. Which brings us to Aliyev. With US concerns about Iran and the need for Azerbaijan as a strategic ally, the Azeri President might well think he can get away with opposing the ideas of very fundamental concerns that are necessary for a peace deal to be workable. Ara Manoogian <a href="http://aramanoogian.blogspot.com/2006/05/us-may-allocate-43-million-for.html">has more on this</a> over at Martuni or Bust. <blockquote>/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Pentagon requested the U.S. Congress for $43 million for the reconstruction of four military airdromes in Azerbaijan and organization of anti-missile defense and radio-electronic intelligence, reported Express Baku-based newspaper citing sources within the Pentagon. According to some independent sources, some airdromes in Azerbaijan have been already conveyed to the United States. Analysts say the U.S. may use the airdromes in case of a military operation against Iran.</blockquote> Ara has it right when he says that if the U.S. stations military forces in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Karabakh are somewhat limited in what they can do in the event of a resumption of military hostilities. Likewise, one guesses that the U.S. would love to have the territory under Armenian control near the Iranian border back under Azerbaijani authority. I'm not of Ara's opinion that WWIII will break out, but actually that the U.S. and Europe want an economically integrated and politically stable South Caucasus region. Regardless, yes, it's hard to say what will happen, and yes, it all depends on Aliyev, but I think that we shouldn't discount larger U.S. intentions in the surrounding region within the next few years from the equation. If Bush wants a solution to the Karabakh conflict, and if he wants the territory surrounding Karabakh returned to Azerbaijan, I don't doubt that he can get it. Regardless, one things for sure. Life in the South Caucasus certainly ain't dull. Garo, that the two presidents are meeting again says a lot in itself. However, it depends a lot on what Bush and Aliyev spoke about in Washnington last month. On the other hand, Aliyev appears to think he is in a strong enough position to resist pressure to concede, and that’s probably the main point. A peace solution does not really depend on the two presidents, but more on international pressure applied on what are weak leaders in their respective countries.

Both came to power after questionable elections and maintain their positions through media censorship and the violation of human rights as well as democratic freedoms. So, on the one hand, if the West wants a deal now it can get it, but there’s also the idea that both authoritarian regimes represent a certain amount of “stability” in what is a very volatile region. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Armenia is ready to sign and will have no choice if Azerbaijan does agree to the idea of a referendum in 10-15 years.

Which brings us to Aliyev. With US concerns about Iran and the need for Azerbaijan as a strategic ally, the Azeri President might well think he can get away with opposing the ideas of very fundamental concerns that are necessary for a peace deal to be workable. Ara Manoogian has more on this over at Martuni or Bust.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Pentagon requested the U.S. Congress for $43 million for the reconstruction of four military airdromes in Azerbaijan and organization of anti-missile defense and radio-electronic intelligence, reported Express Baku-based newspaper citing sources within the Pentagon.

According to some independent sources, some airdromes in Azerbaijan have been already conveyed to the United States. Analysts say the U.S. may use the airdromes in case of a military operation against Iran.

Ara has it right when he says that if the U.S. stations military forces in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Karabakh are somewhat limited in what they can do in the event of a resumption of military hostilities. Likewise, one guesses that the U.S. would love to have the territory under Armenian control near the Iranian border back under Azerbaijani authority.

I’m not of Ara’s opinion that WWIII will break out, but actually that the U.S. and Europe want an economically integrated and politically stable South Caucasus region. Regardless, yes, it’s hard to say what will happen, and yes, it all depends on Aliyev, but I think that we shouldn’t discount larger U.S. intentions in the surrounding region within the next few years from the equation.

If Bush wants a solution to the Karabakh conflict, and if he wants the territory surrounding Karabakh returned to Azerbaijan, I don’t doubt that he can get it. Regardless, one things for sure.

Life in the South Caucasus certainly ain’t dull.

]]> by: Christian http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2006/05/25/momentum-towards-karabakh-peace-continues-2/#comment-1943 Fri, 26 May 2006 12:01:58 +0100 http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2006/05/25/momentum-towards-karabakh-peace-continues-2/#comment-1943 I don't understand the point of the two presidents meeting again when Aliyev effectively walked away from the peace deal in February. If he and Azeris cannot let go of the fact that they lost Karabagh, it makes no sense to meet, especially when the same offer is on the table, which overwhelmingly weighs in Azerbaijan's favor. Whatever. Let's not expect something from this second meeting. I for one am not hopeful as I doubt anything is going to change. If anything Azerbaijan should now be forced to sign a document ensuring that the people of Karabagh hold an immediate referendum to determine their status and not wait 10-15 years. He already turned that offer down, and it makes no sense to give him a second chance at signing it. I think this is the most important issue regarding the resolution of this problem. And it won't be resolved unless he once and for all agrees to give up Karabagh immediately in a peace deal. I don’t understand the point of the two presidents meeting again when Aliyev effectively walked away from the peace deal in February. If he and Azeris cannot let go of the fact that they lost Karabagh, it makes no sense to meet, especially when the same offer is on the table, which overwhelmingly weighs in Azerbaijan’s favor. Whatever. Let’s not expect something from this second meeting. I for one am not hopeful as I doubt anything is going to change. If anything Azerbaijan should now be forced to sign a document ensuring that the people of Karabagh hold an immediate referendum to determine their status and not wait 10-15 years. He already turned that offer down, and it makes no sense to give him a second chance at signing it. I think this is the most important issue regarding the resolution of this problem. And it won’t be resolved unless he once and for all agrees to give up Karabagh immediately in a peace deal.

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