Freedom House has released its 2006 Nations in Transit report, “a comprehensive, comparative, multidimensional study focusing on 29 countries and administrative areas from Central Europe to Eurasia.” The report does not make for pleasant reading or provide much optimism for the future, as the official press release indicates.

The Freedom House study Nations in Transit 2006, released today, evaluates key indicators that track the movement of countries toward or away from democracy. This year’s report shows that while states such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan are increasing their economic influence based on energy resources, they are plagued by weak institutions, deteriorating governance standards, worsening media and judicial freedom, and rising corruption.

Measuring the Electoral Process, Civil Society, the Independent Media, National Democratic Governance, Local Democratic Governance, Judicial Independence, and Corruption on a scale of 1 to 7, with lower numbers being better, the results were probably to be expected. Armenia scored 5.14, Azerbaijan scored 5.93, and Georgia ended up with a final score of 4.86.

Last year Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia scored 5.18, 5.93 and 4.96 respectively. So, things changing slowly in Georgia, not much happening in Armenia, and no progress at all in the area of democracy, corruption and governance in Azerbaijan.

Interestingly, only Armenia and Georgia showed any progress, with the latter showing improvement in the areas of Local Democratic Governance, Corruption, and the Judiciary. Armenia only showed any improvement over last year’s score in the area of the Judicial Framework and Independence, while Azerbaijan regressed in the areas of the Electoral Process and Civil Society.

Perhaps what’s most interesting about the reports is the inclusion of forecasts for those countries surveyed. So, let’s look at what the rest of the year holds in store for the South Caucasus.

ARMENIA

Tension between the government and the opposition will remain high in 2006, particularly toward the end of the year as the next general election, due in mid-2007, approaches. Vested interests in the political hierarchy are likely to prevent substantive improvements in governance, but ongoing reforms should result in an increase in tax revenue. This will enable increased spending in sectors such as health care and education, which will go some way toward ensuring that the benefits of Armenia’s strong economic growth of recent years are spread more widely — essential if public belief in the country’s progress toward democracy is to be restored.

AZERBAIJAN

President Ilham Aliyev is expected to maintain his position thanks to the impressive level of economic growth based on substantial oil revenues, which will increase further as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline starts exports in the second quarter of 2006. The president, however, more than two years into his term, will encounter increased domestic and international pressure to promote younger and more reform-oriented faces to his cabinet and demonstrate genuine efforts against corruption. The opposition parties will remain weak until the 2008 presidential elections loom closer, but individual opposition National Assembly members may strengthen their profiles. There appears limited chance of progress toward resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2006, although the possibility of a military standoff between Azerbaijan and Armenia is also remote.

GEORGIA

In 2006, the Georgian government is expected to take important steps in several areas. Local elections scheduled for the fall are expected to be the most important political event of the year. They will test the ability of the opposition to compete with the ruling United National Movement. Most important, they are supposed to lay the foundation for a new system of local government. Education reforms are intended to produce a new system of self-government in Georgian universities, and a number of self-government bodies will be created in Georgian schools. The government will be under pressure to demonstrate at least some success toward an independent judiciary. It is expected that jury trials may be instituted, at least in some areas. Steps aimed at resolving the “frozen conflicts” in Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be high on the agenda. There are fears, however, that demanding the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces will lead to mounting tensions in these areas as well as in relations between Georgia and Russia.

The full Nations in Transit 2006 with comprehensive country reports can be found here.