Landlocked and blockaded by two of its four neighbours, Armenia can hardly be considered fortunate in terms of its geographical location. However, as Europe shows increasing interest in the South Caucasus, there are fears that Armenia will soon find itself in greater isolation than at anytime before. Plans by Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan to build a new regional railway that would bypass Armenia are starting to ring alarm bells in Yerevan. Writing for Eurasianet, RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan has more.

Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey revealed their intention to pursue the railway project in May 2005 during the ceremonial opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. The presidents of the three nations said the rail link, estimated to cost roughly $400 million, would promote regional economic integration and create a new transport corridor between Europe and Central Asia.

The project essentially boils down to laying an almost 100-kilometer-long rail track between the eastern Turkish city of Kars and the southern Georgian town of Akhalkalaki. Armenian officials insist that the project makes no economic sense, pointing to the existing railroad running from Kars to the northern Armenian city of Gyumri and on to the two other South Caucasus countries. The Kars-Gyumri link has stood idle for over a decade due to the continuing Turkish economic blockade of Armenia.

Even if the border with Turkey were to be opened in the future, Armenia would still be unable to benefit from the new railway. Perhaps with this in mind, or even simply as a political ploy to disrupt financing of the railway with European and U.S. money, the Armenian Government came up with a quite radical suggestion that was hardly going to be accepted by anyone.

“Armenia is ready to let Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan use the existing railway line on Armenian territory without Armenia’s participation,” Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian reiterated during an official visit to Tbilisi on June 27.

The issue was high on the agenda of Oskanian’s talks with Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili and Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili. A statement issued by the Armenian Foreign Ministry said Oskanian “stressed the economic and political importance of the operation of the Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi rail line.” Armenian officials took little comfort in Bezhuashvili’s public assurances that the Turkish-Georgian-Azeri project is “purely commercial.” They fear that the new railway would deepen Armenia’s economic isolation.

One trump card Armenia does have, however, is its large and sometimes powerful Diaspora, especially in the United States. Not surprisingly, they have already been quite active in frustrating Georgian, Azerbaijani and Turish attempts to see external funding for the project.

Influential Armenian lobbying groups in the United States have joined Yerevan in trying to thwart the project. They were instrumental in securing a US congressional committee’s June 15 vote to endorse an amendment that would prohibit the US Export-Import Bank from funding the railway’s construction. “With this amendment, we are sending a message to the governments of Turkey and Azerbaijan that continually excluding Armenia in regional projects fosters instability,” said US Rep. Joseph Crowley, a New York Democrat who is the measure’s main sponsor.

The amendment is expected to be considered by the full House of Representatives later this year. Similar legislation is pending in the US Senate, and the Bush administration has not voiced objections to either bill. The ambassador-designates to Armenia and Azerbaijan assured pro-Armenian US legislators during recent congressional hearings that Washington is against the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railroad. Without ex-im bank backing, US companies would likely be reluctant to invest in the project.

According to the article, while Azerbaijan and Turkey appear undaunted by these developments, Georgia is becoming more hesitant, and at the very least, plans to construct the railway have been delayed. Nevertheless, with the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline in place, the deadlock over Nagorno Karabakh and closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan can hardly do Armenia any favors in the future. This will be particularly true if the railroad is constructed.