30.09.2006 15:43 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The events taking place in Georgia always have an impact on Armenia. Roads close, problems emerge in the economy and the Armenian-Russian relations, RA President Robert Kocharian said at joint press conference with French President Jacques Chirac. According to the Armenian leader, the problems between Georgia and Russia will be resolved in the near future. “I have always said both to Georgia and Russia that Armenia is interested in normal relationships between these two states,” the RA President underscored.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=19466

The Georgian Interior Ministry claimed that the government had detected signs of movement among Russian forces near the Georgian border, and preparations for “large-scale navy maneuvers in the Black Sea.”

“Russia’s 58th Army, which is deployed in North Ossetia, is being mobilized and there is information that [the Army] is moving in [the] direction of Georgia,” Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili told a news conference late September 28, according to a bulletin posted on the online news site Civil Georgia. “In addition, certain movements are being noticed on the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki [in southern Georgia]. I cannot understand why Russia needs [these] moves.”

Moscow did not initially respond to the claim.

Eurasianet also reports that Russia has suspended its planned pullout of bases from Georgia. However, this is all a game as it consistently failed to pull out its troops on schedule in the past.

Russia September 30 it has temporarily suspended a pullout of its troops from two Russian bases in Georgia until the security situation has returned to normal. Russia made the announcement as most of its diplomatic staff prepared to leave Georgia.

The latest crisis in Georgian-Russian relations was sparked by the arrest this week in Tbilisi of four Russian military officers on spy charges.

General Aleksandr Baranov, the Russian commander of the North Caucasus military district, said an ongoing troop pullout from Russia’s two Soviet-era military bases in Georgia has been suspended. He said the troops’ security could not be fully guaranteed as they crossed Georgian territory.

Now, the unanswered question is what happens next. For the West at least, Russia will probably again be seen as a bully unwilling to give up its former [Soviet] empire regardless of the wishes of newly independent countries.

To note Russians have stopped withdrawal of troops from Georgia and I saw a report on TV that said two Russian army groups had mobilised, one being the 55th in Armenia (I think it was), the other in Abkhazia and that the airforce was undergoing exercises over the Black Sea. Anything said about this in Armenia? I haven’t found anything from various press sources.

Georgian Defense Minister told Imedi television on September 29 that extradition of Russian military officers arrested in Georgia with spying charges is possible.

“They [the Russian authorities] have only one resource at their disposal: to convince our foreign friends to [recommend] us to show a good will and expel these people [spy suspects] out of the country,” Okruashvili said.

“International practice shows that as usually a person [spy suspect] was always expelled from the country. We may come to this decision, I do not rule out this. But those Georgian citizens and who are charged with treason will be strictly punished,” Okruashvili said.

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=13701

On the other hand, the pig-headedness of Russia — as well as Georgia — in all of this is also manifesting itself in even more bullying of a country formerly under its control and which does not want Russia meddling in its internal affairs, especially when it comes to stirring up separatist movements in various regions of the country.

Underlying the spy scandal is the issue of Georgia’s “frozen conflicts,” Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Russia’s concern over NATO’s decision last week to deepen cooperation with Georgia.

Moscow has been supporting Abkhazia since the province won effective independence from Georgia in 1993 after two years of fighting.

Georgia accuses Russia of backing separatist forces in the region, a claim Moscow denies.

Speaking in Slovenia, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said that Georgia’s arrest of the military officers was connected to its breakaway provinces:

“It is absolutely clear to us that Georgia has chosen a military way of resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and that is where all other [problems] stem from,” Ivanov said.

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/09/b13a396d-cf93-46f2-96eb-798b433b9a68.html

But yes, both sides seem to be milking the situation. Russia wants to pretend it’s still the former Soviet Union, while Saakashvili is again behaving like a hothead, especially after his U.N. speech.

Chairman of the Council of the Federation of Russia Sergey Mironov said on September 28 that the detention of Russian military officers charged with spying may be a sign that Tbilisi is preparing for “military actions,” Interfax news agency reported.

“History knows numerous examples when such acute inspiration with spy-mania, as it is in [now] Georgia, became a step in a country’s preparations for launching military actions,” Interfax quoted Mironov as saying.

“This is not just another manifestation of an anti-Russian stance by the Georgian leadership, but a purposeful and demonstrative provocation,” he added.

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=13671

Yet, even so, the statement from the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi seems a little vague, to be honest.

The U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi said in a statement on September 29 that the United States government encourages both Russia and Georgia to cooperate and resolve dispute related with spy row “in an appropriate and prompt manner.”

“The U.S. government learned on September 27 of the arrest by the Georgian government of four Russian citizens and eleven Georgian citizens in connection with alleged espionage activities and that the Georgian government may be seeking the arrest of additional Georgian and Russian suspects. While this is a bilateral matter for the Russian Federation and Georgia, the U.S. government encourages both the Russian and Georgian governments to cooperate and resolve this matter in an appropriate and prompt manner. We hope that both governments can discuss and resolve such matters through cooperative efforts and mutual respect. For further details, we refer inquiries to the Georgian and Russian governments,” the statement reads.

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=13700

Anyway, perhaps its worth remembering that 90 percent of trade to and from here goes through Georgia. Even Russia closing the border with Georgia let alone “pummell[ing Georgia] back into the stone age” ain’t gonna do any favours for Armenia either. Around 90 percent of Armenian trade goes through Georgia. Nobody needs any military confrontation — look at the map.

The espionage dispute between Georgia and Russia intensified September 29, with a statement from the Georgian Interior Ministry that Russian military “movements” had begun in territory bordering Georgia, and accusations from Moscow that the arrest of four Russian officers is part of a scheme to advance Georgia’s ambitions to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Preliminary hearings for the four Russian officers in Georgian custody have been held, while an evacuation of the families of Russian diplomats from Tbilisi has begun.

The Georgian Interior Ministry claimed that the government had detected signs of movement among Russian forces near the Georgian border, and preparations for “large-scale navy maneuvers in the Black Sea.”

“Russia’s 58th Army, which is deployed in North Ossetia, is being mobilized and there is information that [the Army] is moving in [the] direction of Georgia,” Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili told a news conference late September 28, according to a bulletin posted on the online news site Civil Georgia. “In addition, certain movements are being noticed on the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki [in southern Georgia]. I cannot understand why Russia needs [these] moves.”

Moscow did not initially respond to the claim.

[…]

Russia on September 28 asked the United Nations Security Council to condemn Georgia for taking “dangerous and unacceptable” steps that could destabilize the region, but the initiative was not carried. Members have requested greater information about the situation.

While the international community considers its response, Moscow has criticized Georgia’s NATO ambitions for contributing to the crisis. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov implied that the arrest of the officers was part of Georgia’s plan to secure membership in the Western defense alliance, adding that Saakashvili had chosen the “military way” to resolve conflicts with the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. “First, they want to get out the Russian peacekeepers by any means possible . . . then use force to resolve the conflicts . . . and then, submit their application to NATO,” he told a news briefing in Slovenia broadcast by Russian State Television.

[…]

Western members of NATO are reacting with caution. NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer called for “moderation and de-escalation” by both Georgia and Russia. De Hoop Scheffer went on to stress that “this is not an issue in where NATO will play any direct role.”

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told reporters that he had discussed the topic with Ivanov, and stated that the situation is “a subject of great interest” to Washington, the American Forces Press Service reported.

Any military action in the South Caucasus isn’t going to help anyone except for nationalists in both Russia and Georgia. Typically, military confrontation and ethnic hatreds typify nationalism everywhere, and both will use it for their own purposes.

Reactions among Georgians to the spy spat differed.

“I am glad these spies were arrested. I hope that Georgia will not step aside from the chosen strategy in the future,” Nuka Basharuli, a refugee from Abkhazia who now lives in Moscow. “But the recent developments are likely to have a negative impact on me and my family,” he added referring to a possible worsening of attitudes among Russians towards the thousands of Georgians living and working in Russia.

The daily Georgian newspaper Rezonansi (Resonance) played on this worry with a front-page story September 29 that warned readers that massive deportations and arrests of Georgians in Russia will begin soon.

Others saw a political angle. “This spy arrest suits both countries in their struggle for votes,” Giorgi Lezhava, a 26-year-old Tbilisi resident, said, “Russia pretends that it has no spies, while Georgia pretends that there is something extraordinary about Russian spies in Georgia. It’s all about politics.”

Some Georgian opposition members have evaluated the recent developments as part of the government’s campaign strategy for nationwide local elections scheduled for October 5, while others maintain that Georgians should stand together in the face of Russian “aggression.”

“The arrest of the Russian officers is definitely connected to the election campaign,” David Berdzenishvili, a leader of the Republican Party, commented to EurasiaNet. “The authorities want to show that they are strong and able to destroy any enemy of Georgia.”

David Zourabichvili, a parliamentarian from the Democratic Front uniting the Conservative and Republican Parties, took a different tact. The Russian officers’ activities constitute “an [act of] aggression and [a] threat towards the entire state and the Georgian people,” Zourabichvili told a September 29 news briefing, Civil Georgia reported. “Against this background, we call on everyone [to unite] in order to avoid giving Russia a reason for speculation about alleged . . . fighting inside Georgia.”

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav092906a.shtml

Activists of a Russian nationalist youth movement have staged a protest action in front of Georgia’s embassy in Moscow. Protesters hurled a pig’s head at the embassy building, breaking the glass window.

The action gathered five activists of Eurasian Youth Union, a radical nationalist organization, Interfax reports.

http://mosnews.com/news/2006/09/29/pigshead.shtml

It’s a test not only for Georgia and Russia, but also for the entire region and so therefore we should all hope that it sorts itself out peacefully with conciliatory tones coming from both sides. Until then, if any anti-Georgian attitude materializes among skinheads in Russia, I’d guess that Armenians [and Azeris] will also be “pummelled” or actually, even worse.

Besides, they have no hope of winning a prevailing war with Russia. They’ll be pummelled back into the stone age. Their situation doesn’t look too rosey.

Get it?

EITHER WAR OR NEW BLOCKADE?

29 September, 2006

«The conflict in Georgia will result in a war in the region, and Serge Sargsyan feels that», announced leader of party «New Times» Aram Karapetyan. His opponent, NA deputy Hamlet Haroutyunyan who represented the Republican party considered there was 50% of probability of war. Today in «Mirror» club the politicians discussed the regional developments and the status of Armenia in that context.

Aram Karapetyan substantiated his point of view saying that as the military ally of Russia Armenia will be involved in the Russian-Georgian relations irrespective of his desires, and we should not cherish fond hopes that it won’t.

Hamlet Haroutyunyan did not quite agree with his opponent, but his predictions weren’t less alarming. According to the representative of the Republican party, the crisis of the Russian-Georgian relations will result in the closing of roads and the gas pipeline which will be especially hard to be in winter.

“History repeats itself. The Georgians have always changed their orientation depending on the situation and their interests. And the Russians do not want to lose their influence in the region. Armenia has always been a stable military basis for Russia. All we have to do is not to meddle with their affairs”, Hamlet Haroutyunyan thinks.

Four Russian officers detained in Georgia have been charged with spying, Georgian officials have said.

A court in Tbilisi ordered all four officers to be detained for two months pending investigations.

Russia has recalled its ambassador to Tbilisi after Wednesday’s arrests and has begun a partial evacuation of its staff from Georgia.

[…]

Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have deteriorated in recent weeks, since Georgia and the Western military alliance Nato agreed to hold talks on closer relations, correspondents say.

On Friday, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov accused some new Nato members of illegally supplying Georgia with Soviet-era weapons. He did not name the countries.

Nato appealed to both sides to defuse the crisis.

[…]

The four Russian officers were formally charged at a preliminary hearing in the Tbilisi court.

The court also ruled that seven Georgian nationals accused of treason should be detained for two months.

Georgian police are still surrounding a Russian military HQ building in the capital. They say another Russian officer they want to question is sheltering inside.

A Russian contract serviceman who was detained together with the four officers has been released, Georgian and Russian officials said.

Georgian officials have shown video footage which they say shows the Russian officers discussing military installations with Georgian citizens and exchanging money.

But the Russian ambassador said the evidence made public so far was not proof that the Russian officers were spies.

Tbilisi has also linked them to an attack in the town of Gori which killed three police officers and injured dozens of people.

[…]

Tbilisi also says Moscow is waging economic war against the country through embargoes on imports of Georgian products, which Russia denies.

Relations between the two nations have become increasingly tense since Mr Saakashvili came to power in 2004, pledging to take the Caucasian nation out of Russia’s orbit and join Nato and the European Union.