President Robert Kocharian, Spitak, Lori Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1998

Until I get round to announcing some exciting news regarding the 2007 Parliamentary Election in Armenia, I’m going to post weekly updates on the run-up to next year’s vote. I think almost everyone understands that these elections will determine the future course of the Republic in terms of democratization as well as set the scene for succession to the incumbent President, Robert Kocharian, in 2008.

Although campaigning has not officially started yet, almost everything that happens between now and next May can be seen in the context of perhaps the most important election in Armenia’s albeit short history as an independent State. First up is news from RFE/RL that Kocharian has promised to formally invite international observers to monitor the conduct of the election.

However, Yerevan seems to be dragging its heels on the matter much to the frustration of the international community.

President Robert Kocharian on Friday assured European diplomats in Yerevan that his government will allow the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to conduct a comprehensive monitoring of Armenia’s next parliamentary and presidential elections.

The assurances came in response to apparent Western concerns about Yerevan’s failure so far to formally ask the OSCE to send observers for the parliamentary elections slated for next spring.

The U.S. ambassador to the OSCE headquarters in Vienna, Julie Finley, exposed those concerns as she visited Armenia last week, stressing the need for a “long-term” observation of the polls. “The OSCE is the gold standard for monitoring elections,” Finley said. “They are coming to the United States to monitor our mid-term elections in November. Why the heck shouldn’t they be over here to monitor the Armenian elections?”

Vladimir Pryakhin, head of the OSCE office in Yerevan, echoed those worries at a meeting with parliament speaker Tigran Torosian. A written statement by the office quoted Pryakhin as saying that the OSCE can send an observation mission “provided an invitation was issued by the Armenian authorities in a timely manner.”

[…]

Western observers acting under the OSCE aegis have criticized as undemocratic just about every presidential and parliamentary election held in Armenia since its independence. Their findings have been endorsed by both the EU and the United States.

Aram Sarkisyan, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004

Meanwhile, various figures in the Armenian opposition have indicated their intent to establish a pro-Western Election bloc. RFE/RL says that Aram Sarkisyan, brother of the assassinated Defense and Prime Minister, has hinted that he is interested in joining forces with the recently ousted Speaker of Parliament Artur Baghdasarian and U.S. born Raffi Hovhannisian.

All of those forces stand for Armenia’s deeper integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures. Some openly advocate the country’s eventual accession to NATO. In particular, Orinats Yerkir has reportedly been in talks with Hanrapetutyun and Zharangutyun over the possibility of forming an electoral alliance since its ouster from the governing coalition last spring.

[…]

It remains to be seen whether Baghdasarian and Hovannisian will be willing to team up with the HHSh and other allies of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian whom many Armenians continue to associate with economic hardship of the early 1990s. Most major opposition parties have so far avoided any cooperation with the HHSh for that reason.

And to prove that electioneering has started long before it should officially, RFE/RL also reports that Artur Baghdasarian is now facing a smear campaign allegedly orchestrated from the pro-Government camp.

In a written statement, Orinats Yerkir condemned several regional television stations for broadcasting advertisements allegedly “discrediting” Baghdasarian and his allies. It said the attack ads have been aired in various regions of Armenia where Orinats Yerkir leaders have held indoors gatherings with voters over the past month.

“According to our information, [the campaign] was organized by certain high-ranking officials who have also banned TV companies from disclosing the names of those who pay for the ads,” the statement said without naming names. It urged Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian to identify and punish the “individuals discrediting the party and tens of thousands of its members.”

[…]

Orinats Yerkir, which was forced out of Armenia’s governing coalition last spring and is now in opposition to President Robert Kocharian, signaled last month the start of its preparations for next year’s parliamentary elections with a fiery speech delivered by Baghdasarian in the National Assembly. Risking fresh accusations of populism, Baghdasarian accused the Armenian authorities of artificially strengthening the national currency to pocket a large part of multimillion-dollar cash remittances sent home by Armenians working abroad.

Well, as May approaches the situation is likely to get very tense indeed and almost every major international donor and organization is looking at elections in 2007 and 2008 to see if they will fare any better than previous ones conducted in 2003 that the OSCE considered as falling far short of “international standards for democracy.”

Even recent and newly proposed changes to the electoral code don’t convince many that things will be different next year.

Political analyst David Petrosyan says the ratio of proportional/majority representation matters little when elections are free and fair.

“In the majority vote some part of the votes (and sometimes a major part) is ‘lost’. Besides, political parties usually have to spend more to field there candidates in single-mandate constituencies,” he said. “The advantage of the proportional system is that it ensures better representation, it is easier for political parties to campaign, it requires less spending, and in our conditions this system also makes it easier to control the course of the ballot and the vote count. That’s why opposition parties seek an all-proportional system.”

Petrosyan thinks that only in case of all-proportional elections opposition parties have a real chance to offer more or less successful resistance to what he describes as ‘a colossal administrative, financial, oligarchic, strong-arm and criminal resource.”

[…]

“I don’t think these changes can seriously influence the course of the electoral process. I still think that the freest elections in Armenia were held in 1988-1991 when the country had a very poor [Soviet] electoral legislation,” Petrosyan says.

Let’s see how we’ll do this time round, although few people expect much of an improvement if any. Still, that’s as much to do with whether Armenians value and protect their votes next year. Unfortunately, there’s not yet much of a sign that things will be better, but we can at least hope and strive to make sure that these next two elections are the most transparent yet.

Incidently, Armenia Now has already started its election coverage here.