Prosperous Armenia Office, Shamiram, Aragatsotn Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2006

Armenia Now, an online publication that has already started its own coverage of next year’s parliamentary election well ahead of the May vote, this week highlighted the fact that the campaign is already in full swing. Political parties cannot officially campaign for the elections until two months prior to election day, but the stakes are too high this time round.

Indeed, Armenia Now says that what is arguably bribe-giving has already started from the likes of the Prosperous Armenia party of oligarch Gagik Tsarukian (AKA Dodi Gago).

Two weeks ago, Gagik Tsarukyan’s “Prosperous Armenia” party announced on television its plan to start distributing autumn sowing wheat seeds and potatoes to villages. The party says its efforts are humanitarian, aimed at relief from drought.

Welcome to the unofficial start of the 2007 election campaign - called benevolence by some, but viewed as bribes for votes by others.

Bribes paid to voters play a major role in the pre-election campaign and the mechanisms of bribe-giving are being perfected continuously. While an aspiring deputy would distribute 2000-5000 drams to voters directly without an extra thought some five years ago, or would lay asphalt on the streets the month before the election, the campaign for this election has started with large-scale benevolent actions.

Article 18 of the Electoral Code stipulates that during pre-election campaign: “The candidates and parties are prohibited from personally or otherwise giving (promising) citizens money, food, shares, goods, or providing (promising) services free of charge or at privileged conditions.”

Aware of the provision, the parties have launched a non-official campaign six months before the parliamentary elections, which is, in fact not prohibited by the electoral code.

How are the voters’ bribes differentiated from benevolence?

The article also suggests that Tigran Karapetyan’s ALM TV station is also engaged in some kind of political campaign by allowing the children of villagers throughout the country to sing on his show. This has been going on for four years now according to the article, but as Karapetyan’s station is allegedly part-financed by Tsarukian, and as he has his own party, many have been concerned by his involvement in politics for some time now.

Most likely, politicians attach little importance to ALM’s march on the Armenian marzes. This means they don’t understand the power of television. In fact, all of Karapetyan’s programs are campaigns advertisements, and he already has his own electorate. On November 14, 2004 during the program New Voices, a historian from Ashtarak naively called upon the authorities not to paint the innocent show on a political background, for “Tigran Karapetyan is just helping to discover our talented children.” But all those who plan to participate in the next parliamentary elections had better come to their senses. Because it is possible that in 2007 Tigran Karapetyan’s Popular Party will become the parliamentary majority.

168 Zham has already suggested a possible collaboration between Tsarukian and Karapetyan.

According to “168 Zham,” the most powerful of those oligarchs, Gagik Tsarukian, has already formed his party called Prosperous Armenia. The paper says he intends to have a “big faction” in the next Armenian parliament. The faction would include “a number of prominent entrepreneurs and politicians.” “In order to have a majority in the National Assembly, Gagik Tsarukian will form an alliance before the [2007] elections with the People’s Party of [TV station owner and commentator] Tigran Karapetian and the newly created ZhUK party of [parliament deputy] Manuk Gasparian.”

Vahan Ishkanyan gave us a look into the world of Tsarukian and other oligarchs that will likely control what happens during the parliamentary election in their own personal fiefdoms for Armenia Now in March, while Hetq Online has already been busy documenting some of the illegalities connected with his new Prosperous Armenia party.

Piles of passports like these can be seen in various photo shops throughout Yerevan, passports of those citizens of Armenia who have agreed to join the political party Prosperous Armenia . The heads of local chapters collect the passports in exchange for promises of well-being to their fellow citizens, and employment to the unemployed. This activity is personally supervised by two party leaders who also happen to public officials, Chairman of the State Committee on Physical Fitness and Sport Ishkhan Zakaryan and by Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications Vardan Vardanyan. Which means that we as taxpayers are paying these men their salaries to work for Prosperous Armenia instead of performing their official duties.

[…]

This process began last March. At that time, the local party bosses who collected the passports arranged a deal with the photo shops to pay 250 Drams for each two photos. But they were getting 500 drams from the headquarters, and thereby swindling their boss, Gagik Tsarukyan. Now that the membership of Prosperous Armenia has reached 150,000 and the amount spent on pictures is no longer negligible, functionaries at party headquarters have begun to address the issue. They have come to realize that a passport picture can be copied for 50 drams, having already spent some $100,000, no small amount even for Tsarukyan.

Last March Hetq asked all political parties registered in Armenia for information regarding their financial resources and their annual budget.

According to Article 28 of the Law on Political Parties, all parties are required to publish in the media their annual financial reports no later than March 25 th of the following year. We asked the party leaders to provide us with the name of the media outlet where their accounts for the year 2004 were published and the publication date. At the same time we asked to send us their reports for the year 2005 or to name the newspaper where the information was to be published. Only eight parties responded to our inquiry; Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia, the financial activity of which is largely in the shadows, was not among them.

[…]

Prosperous Armenia has published its program in the press. But when you look at the party’s financial activity it becomes clear that its program provisions have nothing to do with reality. No laws exist for Gagik Tsarukyan. No one from any state agency can go to the party headquarters and say that certain laws are being violated. One thing that Armenian oligarchs know for sure is that money determines the law.

What the owners of all these passports fail to grasp is that all the handouts from the oligarchs are at the expense of unpaid taxes. But the taxes are supposed to support hospitals, schools, the army, pensioners. These taxes are supposed to pay the salary of the president of the republic as well. By handing over their passports, these citizens of Armenia are becoming unwitting accomplices to tax evasion and lawlessness.

And there’s just no stopping Tsarukian. Surely, he’s man of the moment in the Armenian press although thankfully he’s not being accused of attacks on journalists or for his guys’ armed shootouts in the suburbs of Yerevan like he has been in the past. Instead, as one significant analyst here believes Tsarukian is a front for the joint “investments” of various officials at the highest levels, even the President is coming out with indirect support.

A luxury hotel belonging to a wealthy businessman was inaugurated in the resort town of Tsaghkadzor on Thursday, with President Robert Kocharian and several other government and parliament members attending the ceremony.

Multirest House, a newly built 42-room hotel complex, is the latest investment by Gagik Tsarukian, arguably the most influential oligarch who leads the ambitious Prosperous Armenia party believed to enjoy Kocharian’s backing ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

[…]

Kocharian brushed aside media speculations that his visit was the sign of political endorsement of Tsarukian’s party. He said he attended the event primarily to encourage more investment in the sphere.

The president steered clear of questions about his possible support for Prosperous Armenia in the upcoming elections. He only promised to have a special meeting with media dealing with all sorts of political questions before the end of this year.

Tsarukian also denied any link between the event and politics.

Yeah, right. Still, it highlights one fact which is that these elections will determine who succeeds Kocharian in 2008 when he has to leave office under the constitution, and as we all know, there is too much to lose to allow just anybody to take over as U.S. Analyst Richard Girgosian explains.

Ahead of the parliamentary election there are two main alignments within the elite of Armenia: Serge Sargsyan and the Republican Party of Armenia, and Robert Kocharyan with the Prosperous Armenia Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. (Kocharyan cannot seek a third term, but will play a vital role in securing the spot for his approved successor.)

Although the presidential election largely depends on which of the political scenarios of the two groupings will win the parliamentary election, analysts are already making some predictions.

Washington D.C./Yerevan political analyst Richard Giragosian says to expect a different face on the same power structure. He argues that the political field of Armenia is a closed system with powerful and clearly cut limits and the new president will be someone from inside that system.

“The connection between the state and corruption is the evidence that one needs to pay money to enter the closed system of the political elite. It’s like buying a ticket for a performance; one needs to pay to play in the ‘political theater’,” says Giragosian.

Victor Dallakian, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004

What confuses speculation about the political goals of Prosperous Armenia, however, is still as of yet rumor that prominent opposition MP Victor Dallakian will likely lead the party. Dallakian has been quite vocal in his criticism of Kocharian and the Defense Minister Serzh Sarksiyan although he has been rather warm towards Tsarukian of late.

Dallakian has still yet to confirm or deny any links with the party, although perhaps his words last week are indication enough.

Speculations about Dallakian’s move were fueled by his shock defection from the opposition alliance in summer. Further suspicions that the politician may ally himself with some party arose when the parliamentarian three times elected from single-mandate constituencies appeared as a strong proponent of abolishing majority elections when amendments to the Electoral Code were brought up for discussion in parliament last month. But Dallakian’s new affiliation still remains unconfirmed.

The former Artarutyun member promised to the media “to inform about his decision” when the time is due.

According to Dallakian, he has not changed his opposition stance since quitting the bloc, as he still believes that the 2003 elections and last year’s referendum were rigged by the authorities.

He also said he did not consider Prosperous Armenia a pro-government party.

“Both government and opposition are formed as a result of elections. Prosperous Armenia has not participated in any elections as a party yet, it did not have its members in election commissions and therefore could not rig election result. Prosperous Armenia has no ministers in the government. Therefore, it is not a pro-government force, but a new force,” Dallakian said.

Shavarsh Kocharian, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004

All fun and political games at the moment in Armenia, but there is some serious news as well that might give us hope for cleaner elections this time round. That is, there is some discussion in civil society going on in the country. On Wednesday, for example, the largest domestic observation organization It’s Your Choice held a meeting on amendments to the electoral code.

This follows Tuesday’s ruling from the Constitutional Court that a provision allowing Judges to sit on Electoral Commissions was unconstitutional.

The provision was contested by a group of 27 opposition parliamentarians led by lawmaker Shavarsh Kocharian who argued that it contradicts the principle of separation of powers and potentially endangers citizens’ right to fair trial.

The Constitutional Court’s verdict means that judges of Armenia’s Court of Cassation already appointed as election commission members cannot continue in this capacity as all related amendments to the Election Code passed in 2005 are considered invalid.

Constitutional Court Chairman Gagik Harutiunian spelled out the ruling: “The first reason [for passing this ruling] is that a judge must not engage in any activities in state or local government bodies but should perform only his immediate duties. The second very important point is the establishment of an independent and unbiased judiciary. There might be a situation when a majority of judges will be involved in electoral processes, which will mean that justice will idle and citizen will not have the opportunity to defend their rights in courts.”

Deputy Chairman of the “Democracy” organization Hrair Tovmasian, who represented the opposition at the Constitutional Court, said: “The Electoral Code was amended in a hurry, at the last moment. The objective was to recruit representatives of most publicly trusted structures in election commissions and a decision was made that it is the judiciary that enjoys that trust, a decision that was clearly against the constitution.”

Under the amended Electoral Code, two members of the nine-member commission are now appointed from among Court of Cassation judges.

“The number is not important, but the mechanism is. Political authorities and opposition should have equal representation in election commissions,” Tovmasian said.

Well, I’m not sure that the judiciary is trusted by the population, but anyway. Still, it’s discussing and contesting such things that are a crucial part of democracy building in any country. Others would also argue that if Europe and the United States were to threaten Armenia with sanctions, or any other punishments, if there is no progress registered in the conduct of the next elections, that would also help to.

No wonder that Freedom House is already urging such measures.

A leading U.S. human rights organization urged the U.S. administration on Friday to withhold promised economic assistance to Armenia and six other developing countries which it believes fail to meet “reasonable standards” for democracy and civil liberties.

[…]

The New York-based Freedom House charged that the Armenian government has been “backsliding on promised reforms” since it signed last March a $235.6 million MCA compact with a U.S. government agency managing the scheme designed to promote good governance around the world. “Armenia has failed in its pledge made to the [Millennium Challenge Corporation] to improve its institutional commitment to democracy and tolerance of opposition,” it said in a statement.

In particular, Freedom House accused the Armenian government of ignoring U.S. calls to investigate serious fraud reported during the November 2005 referendum on a raft of Western-backed amendments to Armenia’s constitution. “Implementation of the referendum’s tepid reforms stalled in 2006, and the opposition expects upcoming parliamentary elections to once again be marred by fraud,” it said. “Multiple anti-democratic methods are used to maintain a hold on power.”

The statement also alleged a lack of judicial independence and press freedom in the country.

U.S. officials have made it clear that the release of the MCA funds is contingent on “corrective steps” that would demonstrate Yerevan’s commitment to human rights and free elections. In a May 15 letter to President Robert Kocharian, the MCC chief executive John Danilovich warned that a “continued negative trend in Armenia’s policy performance would endanger the continuation of the recently signed Compact.”

Harutiun Hambartsumian, IYC Chairperson (center), observes as the PEC Chairperson refuses to accept a written complaint of ballot box stuffing, Shahumian, Ararat Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2005

Well, there’s an MCA Monitor Blog stateside so I hope they’ll keep an eye on the elections, and I also hope that next year’s parliamentary election will be the coming of age for blogs and bloggers in Armenia. Interestingly, Zarchka over at Life Around Me is a member of the It’s Your Choice domestic observation mission, as well as being its Erebuni youth coordinator, so I guess we’ll be seeing her doing the same here in 2007.

At the end of March, for example, she blogged her account of observing the parliamentary election in Ukraine and made some interesting points about the differences between there and here.

Unlike Armenians, Ukrainians don’t display a widespread apathy for elections and they really care for who they cast their vote. A thing that amazes me not for the first time is the Ukrainians ability to make queues and wait without pushing and shoving. This is another phenomenon absent in Armenian society in general.

[…]

Again I want to say my subjunctive stand point, Armenians are never ready for elections. The public displays great apathy and doesn’t attend polling stations. They do not care who will win and they reiterate that their voices do not change anything, as the results are predicted beforehand. And yes, don’t get surprised when the number of voters is extremely exaggerated, because with their apathy and not attendance they give pleasure opportunity to those people who are eager to vote instead of them. The attitude they hold is used by the others, who, instead of challenging people to vote, brake all their hope, and later, they use their voices to their heart content. This is another way of will and self expression. Then why not to use it? Even when you are sure that it’s going to be a fraud, why do you let the others poll instead of you. No one gives them that right, and it’s you who must vote, it’s your choice.

Again this timeless question: how long will it take until we have transparent, open and democratic elections ????

Riot Police, Marshal Baghramian Avenue, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004

Still, we need more blogs taking on the issue of the election, and hopefully by February 2007. After the New Year celebrations die down after 13 January, I daresay that we’ll well and truly enter into election season in Armenia, and the stakes will be very high indeed this time round. Incidently, bloggers over at Cilicia.com were important in bringing first hand accounts of the violent dispersal of an opposition protest in Central Yerevan in 2004 to the English speaking Diaspora.

At about 1:50 a.m. I heard a couple of explosions with some lightning. went out on the balcony toward my courtyard, just as Lena was calling me to tell me that this was not fireworks, but bombs. we assume they were fake noise bombs used as a deterrent.

I went to the opposite side of my apartment facing saryan street, with a view of the baghramian intersection. i saw crowds building. put on clothes and ran downstairs. as i was talking to two women who were explaining to me that people were being beaten up by the National Assembly building. “there was a man who’s head was bashed in, with blood spilling all over,” said one woman. then she turned to the building–my building–and started crying for people to wake up and come out to fight.

as i was catching my breath, i noticed two police officers directly across the street from me, with a bunch of riot gear police running after them. one police officer–have no idea what the rank was–had another man by the neck and he was inflicting kick after kick on the man’s body.

Here’s hoping that there are no similar events next year, especially as even journalists were not spared the wrath of the riot police. Haykakan Zhamanak’s Hayk Gevorgyan was personally beaten by the Deputy Head of Armenia’s Police, for example, and while I managed to document the 2003 Presidential Elections without coming to any harm, I did get hit during the opposition protests in April 2004. Still, at least my camera was spared.

Really, we all have to hope that next year’s vote will be conducted better than past elections in Armenia.