Raffi Hovannisian, Opposition Rally, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

Well, even though there are six months to go until next year’s parliamentary elections, the political temperature in Armenia is starting to rise. In fact, much of the preparations for the 2007 vote started as long ago as last year when the referendum to amend the constitution was pretty much falsified.

Back then, prominent U.S. born politician and first Foreign Minister of an independent Armenia, Raffi Hovhannisian, resurfaced and was subsequently subjected to a campaign allegedly orchestrated by the authorities to discredit his family name. Now, the saga continues, as RFE/RL reports.

Together with several fellow partisans the leader of the Zharangutyun (Heritage) party Raffi Hovannisian protested near the Prosecutor-General’s Office on Tuesday demanding a reply to the action the party filed more than a month ago.

“On March 4, they illegally entered our office and we were locked out. Four days later, at midnight, they entered the office and stole our computer network and all our internal information from databases. We demand that a case be brought for the illegal closure of our office and the stealing,” Hovannisian said, adding that pressures are already being put on some of the most active members of the party.

He claimed that the actions connected with the office closure and their eviction had been directly orchestrated from the presidential palace. “I think the truth will be revealed if there is an unbiased, comprehensive and normal investigation,” Hovannisian said.

Hovannisian says the pressure is the result of authorities’ fear that Heritage may prove a major opponent in next year’s election.

Stepan Demirchian, Opposition Rally, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2003

Meanwhile, as the authorities create their own new political parties and alliances to contest the vote, the opposition is also looking to find its own bedfellows. Stepan Demirchyan, Kocharian’s main opponent during the 2003 presidential elections, is already eyeing up potential allies. RFE/RL also says that Demirchyan is also considering possible strategies ahead of what might be the dirtiest elections in Armenia’s short history as an independent State.

Demirchian did not rule out the possibility of cooperation with Orinats Yerkir, a former ruling coalition member party led by ex-parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian.

“We are ready for cooperation if Orinats Yerkir declares that it is in opposition,” he said, adding that they already cooperate with this party in the legislative process in parliament.

[…]

Demirchian also hailed the idea of all prominent opposition leaders having their nominations in single-mandate constituencies, but added that it is also important for opposition leaders to concentrate on work for the benefit of their parties.

The oppositionist accused different wings of power for already using administrative resource and channeling part of their illicit profits at influencing political processes in the country.

“There are already pressures, including against journalists. People in different fields are forced to become partisans, now this is being done in the tax and customs spheres as well,” Demirchian claimed.

Already there are murmors of a campaign of anti-Government civil disobedience, including from veterans and commanders from the Karabakh conflict. According to RFE/RL, there are concerns that attempts to retain power at any cost will manifest themselves as concessions in post-2008 negotiations to resolve the conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

In a written statement spread on Wednesday several dozen ex-commanders urged all war veterans to unite “to save Armenia and Armenians and restore justice in all spheres”.

“The lands that we liberated are in danger today. We urge all our compatriots, all parties and individuals to put aside ideological differences and stop our homeland from falling into an abyss,” they said.

For this purpose the “Brotherhood of Liberation Struggle” Council of Commanders urges everyone to join the movement of civil disobedience.

Commander of Karabakh self-defense forces and head of Yerkrapah’s Karabakh structure Arkady Karapetian says this disobedience will mean that people no longer want the authorities to govern the country and it will eventually result in a power change. “If you don’t accept that this person is your president, then you are ready for everything,” Karapetian said.

The Karabakh war veterans say they will consider anyone who attempts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem at the expense of territories as their enemy. “Terrible things will happen if such an attempt is made,” Karapetian warned.

A1 Plus reports that former Foreign Minister Alexander Arzoumanian is one of those behind the new movement.

“We fight against the despotism which rules in Armenia today. The press and the television are in the hands of a group and engage in the reproduction of the authorities. We call on all the individuals, organizations and deputies to join the movement in order to protect our statehood and the future of our children which is in danger today”, Alexander Arzoumanyan said.

[…]

“The present authorities have to leave; as for where they will go, that’s another question. This system must be destroyed. Factually, the ways chosen by the opposition resulted fruitless; we need new measures. We must establish law and order in the country”, announced Alexander Arzoumanyan.

And this is why the stakes are so high. With corruption in Armenia remaining at alarming levels it is unlikely that many senior officials or Government-connected businessmen will allow anything to happen that will threaten their positions and often illegally gained wealth. As many people here will tell you, the duo of the Armenian President and Defense Minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, control everything.

It’s also why few doubt that the parliamentary elections will determine whether Kocharian can pass power on to his most trusted lieutenant in the presidential election the following year. Armenia Now has more on that.

Despite the fact that Armenia’s internal political life is currently focused on the parliamentary elections due next year, there is much talk about the presidential election slated for 2008. That’s because today, the country is on the threshold of a cardinal change of power, with many politicians, including the most probable contenders for the highest state post, noting the shift in authority from the president to the parliament.

Interestingly, Armenia Now points to a new reality in Armenia. After constitutional amendments were passed by what almost everyone considers was a fraudalent vote in November 2005, more power will be afforded to parliament at the expense of the presidency. It’s why some suspect that a planned scenerio exists where the current Defense Minister becomes President and Kocharian becomes Prime Minister.

“It is not a secret to anyone that after the 2007 elections the real power in the country will pass to the prime minister and the chairman of the National Assembly, and the president will possess much more modest powers and will act as the English queen,” parliamentary expert and political analyst Marina Mkrtchyan says. “It seems that under the amended Constitution, the post of the Minister of Defense will not play a key role in political processes.”

In the meantime, the Defense Minister is believed to be charting a careful course through Armenia’s so-called complimentary foreign policy which seeks to remain on good terms with both the West and Russia. As more and more strategic assets are literally handed over to Moscow on a plate, American-Armenian analyst Richard Giragosian recently said in Yerevan that Sarkisyan has Washington’s backing for the 2008 vote.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The U.S.’s informal opinion is that Serge Sargsyan will be the next President of Armenia, military and political expert Richard Giragossian said in Yerevan. According to him, the incumbent Defense Minister suits both Washington and Moscow. “Only he can secure the stability of the state. This is the most important thing for us. Democracy in Armenia will develop step by step, without shocks and it’s convenient for all. The opposition is too weak to come to power and all the more to secure stability,” the American expert said.

Armenia Now sees the Defense Minister’s closer cooperation with the U.S., and in particular Armenian soldiers being sent to Iraq, as just one component of Sarkisyan’s presidential ambitions. Basically, the 2007 Parliamentary Elections are vital in guaranteeing those ambitions. They will also determine the future course of Armenia, and whether it fails or succeeds as a country on the path to democracy.

Anyway, Armenia Now has its 2007 parliamentary election coverage here, and I’ve added a category for the elections here.