November 24, 2006


Karabakh Peace Close?

Armenia Now has an interesting if perhaps overly optimistic article ahead of the next scheduled meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents to resolve the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh for Tuesday. According to the article, a largely credible newspaper reports that gradual moves to implement a final peace plan are currently underway.

[…] the Russian newspaper “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” has reported that by the end of this year Armenia will begin a handover to Azerbaijan of territories now controlled by Karabakh forces, and Karabakh will remain joined to Armenia with a 40-kilometer corridor. According to this plan, the corridor will be controlled by peacekeeping forces.

The paper (http://www.ng.ru/cis/2006-11-22/6_meeting.html) cites diplomatic sources to report that: “The project under discussion envisages that Armenia withdraws troops from Azeri territories it controls, refugees return to their places of residence, diplomatic and economic relations will be settled between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh will benefit from international economic cooperation and a referendum will be held on its status.”

To be honest, after recent moves to come up with a framework document that would form the basis of a peace agreement failed, I had given up on anything happening for some years. Next year there will be parliamentary elections in Armenia and in 2008, presidential elections in both republics. A concessionary peace deal at the end of 2006 seems like political suicide to me.

Tom de Waal, Caucaus Editor of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR) and author of Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through War and Peace, was also unconvinced that peace was going to come anytime soon when I met up with him for dinner in Yerevan recently. Also, the details given by the Russian newspaper are pretty much what we’ve known for some time now.

Reference to a 40 kilometer “corridor” through Lachin also appears to correspond to the present trend of depopulation and official neglect in the controversial Kashatagh region sandwiched between Armenia and Karabakh. I detailed that in articles for Eurasianet and IWPR here and here, but even so, I’m not going to hold my breath for some breakthrough in Minsk next week.

Interestingly, the “independent” online media here has been stuffed with articles from Karabakh in recent weeks indicating that anonymous donors are perhaps commissioning such pieces. However, I think nothing will happen because of the timing. War veterans are already threatening a campaign of civil disobedience if any territory is returned.

Basically, this is just the issue that opposition forces in both countries could exploit.

Yes, there has apparently been talk of possible peace-keeping deployment and there are signs that Armenia and Karabakh are preparing themselves for an official peace and recognition of the latter’s independence from Azerbaijan, but I’m not convinced. The so-called “window of opportunity” for a deal seems to have slammed itself shut months ago, and mainly because of intransigence from the Azeri side.

Still, let’s wait and see. Maybe we’ll all be surprised, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Posted by Onnik @ 7:45 pm. Filed under: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Media, Karabakh, Caucasus




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  1. RFE/RL also had something on the next meeting of the two presidents yesterday.

    CO-CHAIRS HOPE KOCHARIAN, ALIEV WILL TAKE NEW STEP TOWARDS REACHING AGREEMENT

    The OSCE Minsk Group cochairmen on Thursday expressed a hope that the meeting in Minsk will enable the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to take a new step towards agreement around the basic principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

    In a statement of the Russian and French cochairmen, Yuri Merzlyakov and Bernard Fassier, spread in Baku the two mention that the sides agree that “the discussions of the foreign ministers in Moscow, Paris and Brussels in October-November were effective from the point of view of achieving progress in the negotiating process.”

    Armenian President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliev agreed to meet in Minsk on November 28 on the margins of the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

    Last week, the U.S. cochairman of the OSCE Minsk Group Matthew Bryza called progress that the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are thinking through the links between returning all Azerbaijani territories with Nagorno-Karabakh’s status.

    “Where there’s been progress is thinking through the links between returning all of the so-called occupied territories in Azerbaijan with the issue of status,” Bryza said at a roundtable in Vienna.

    “I cannot go into details beyond that, but the parties have thought through the issue in a creative, constructive way, in a way that reflects respect for each,” the U.S. cochairman added.

    Comment by Onnik — November 24, 2006 @ 7:52 pm

  2. If we are to believe what this Russian newwspaper states as semi-official insider facts re; the Karabakh peace process than there is much to be fearful of. Not only is Karabkh’s status to be determined by a future referendum , but the liberated lands linking Armenia and Artsakh to be returned to the LOOSER. What folly??? Where is the Karabakh leadership in all this behind the scenes politicking?? How does President Kocharian plan to justify such a compromise to the families of those who gave their life to defend and free Artsakh?

    All Armenians need to seriously contemplate an urgent drive to resettle Armenians on the border lands . The Armenian Republic lost close to half its territory due to the Kemalist offensive of 1919-1920. Today some in Armenia are willing to return certain territories even though Armenian forces emerged victorious in a war started by Azerbaijan. Does this sound rational to you??

    The Organization of Karabakh War Veterans proposes a program of civil disobedience to protest such a move. I totally agree!!!

    The diaspora needs to move quickly on this issue and make its voice known. This is not a compromise but a SELL-OUT!!!!

    Comment by Chello — November 25, 2006 @ 11:54 pm

  3. Stinks of propaganda to me. I’d be interested to find out who the shareholders of that paper are.

    The gangsters and suits need to realise; they may be able to buy out everyeone else, but they cannot buy out nationalists and martyrs. We will not give up our ancestral lands to the devils that started the war - lands which we have cultivated and had our blood spilt upon for millenia - just because some foreign investors want to make a quick buck.

    If some corrupt, spineless officials buckle under the weight of laden coffers and betray our country, they will pay with their blood. There is nothing more resolute than a person defending his home.

    Comment by Esoteric — November 27, 2006 @ 8:08 pm

  4. You know, the more I think about this story, the more I wonder why I’m even bothering to. Yes, there are signs that Armenia is willing to sign the peace deal being proposed, but there are no signs that Azerbaijan is.

    Moreover, let’s face it, this story didn’t even make the top of the page on Armenia Now, and I’m really sorry, if anyone there thought that a possible peace deal was imminent, it would have. So, for now at least, I just don’t buy into it.

    Still, we’ll know more tomorrow.

    Comment by Onnik — November 27, 2006 @ 8:15 pm

  5. ICG: Specific Steps Will Hardly Be Taken at Kocharian-Aliyev Meeting
    28.11.2006 13:54 GMT+04:00

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ The International Crisis Group (ICG) does not intend to publish new reports on Nagorno Karabakh, because no changes have occurred in the situation, stated ICG South Caucasus Project Director Sabine Freizer. She said that the Group will prepare a report concerning the situation in the region in 2007. As for the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents to be held within the Summit of CIS Head of States in Minsk Sabine Freizer said she does not believe important decision will be taken on the settlement of the NK conflict. “Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian are not resolute in compromising. They have not prepared the society for the possible compromises. If the matter comes to agreeing over the principles, the presidents will have to explain the essence of agreement elements and the necessity of compromise to the public,” she said, reports APA.

    Only Putin Can Convey Impulse to Kocharian-Aliyev Talks
    28.11.2006 13:25 GMT+04:00

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ There is minimal probability for the meeting of the Armenian and Azeri Presidents to end in signing of a document, Azeri political scientist Rasim Musabekov believes. In his words, “there is no hint for agreeing upon the language of such a document by the FMs.” “To the contrary, the statements of I. Aliyev and R. Kocharian on the eve of the Minsk meeting are not optimistic, as they evidence that it will be hard to bring the positions of the parties to a common point,” he remarked. “Thus, it would be good if upon completion of the meeting the Presidents come out together in order to join journalists and state that the talks were productive. While statements that it was managed to make positions of the parties over disputed elements closer and that the two FMs are later commissioned to hold an additional round of talks, taking into account the progress made during the meeting of state leaders – this should be considered success,” Musabekov said. He also remarked that “though Belarus President Lukashenko hosts the CIS Summit, while Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is the Chair of the Council of CIS Heads at present, only Russian President Vladimir Putin is capable to convey certain impulse to Aliyev-Kocharian talks.” “Another point is whether he would like to do it and to whose benefit he will direct his influence and what he will demand in exchange,” the political scientist stated, reports Day.az.

    The meeting of the Armenian and Azeri Presidents within the settlement process of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will be held in Minsk within the Summit of the CIS Heads November 28.

    Comment by Onnik — November 28, 2006 @ 4:46 pm

  6. Today.Az » Politics » Diplomacy awakens on Nagorno Karabakh conflict

    27 November 2006 [13:47]

    The Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are set to meet on Tuesday on the sidelines of the summit of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders, reviving diplomacy on the long-running territorial dispute of Nagorno Karabakh after top-level talks collapsed in February.

    Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Robert Kocharian, are to meet on the sidelines of a CIS summit in Minsk to give a mandate to their foreign ministers to explore ways for progress on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

    The new round of diplomacy comes as a surprise to many since it comes at a time when Armenia is bracing for parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2007. Few expected that the two leaders would meet again after their high-hope February talks behind closed doors at Rambouillet Castle near Paris failed to announce any progress.

    Mediators from the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE) said at the time that the position of the parties on certain “sensitive principles” have remained identical to those they had before the meeting.

    International pressure and Armenia’s growing isolation in the region may be the key reason why Armenia is opting for a fresh diplomatic drive on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, one of the most intricate disputes threatening stability in the southern Caucasus, home to considerable Caspian gas and oil resources. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced during a 1988-1994 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh, an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan.

    Armenia, say diplomats familiar with the issue, is feeling increasingly isolated in the region as its rival Azerbaijan proceeds with regional energy and transportation projects with Turkey and Georgia.

    Azerbaijan is sending part of its Caspian oil to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan via neighboring Georgia with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which was officially launched in the summer of this year. A parallel pipeline to transport part of its natural gas to Turkey’s eastern terminal of Erzurum is also drawing near for completion.

    Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia are working on a regional integration project, as they proceed with plans to build a railway linking the three countries.

    Armenia’s position on Nagorno Karabakh is costing the Yerevan administration dearly. Neighboring Turkey closed its border gates more than a decade ago and severed diplomatic ties to protest the occupation of Nagorno Karabakh by Armenian troops, bringing huge trade losses for the landlocked country.

    Ankara says normalization of ties depends on Armenia’s withdrawal from the enclave and whether Armenia drops its support for Armenian diaspora efforts to win international recognition for allegations of an Armenian genocide at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire.

    Armenia’s economic hardships have grown further recently due to a Russian transportation blockade on Georgia, the main route for Armenia to reach the outside world.

    Azerbaijan, on the other hand, sits on a significant part of the Caspian energy wealth and has been channeling money to boost its defense structure. Oil and gas money has brought a record high economic growth to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev has pledged to equal his country’s defense budget to the entire budget of Armenia.

    But the Aliyev administration, under domestic pressure to do more on the Nagorno Karabakh dispute, is inclined for diplomacy to achieve some progress since a military option would cost the country much more. After all, the country has only recently begun to enjoy wealth and political stability as the oil and gas money has started entering the national budget.

    “The Aliyev administration wants to be seen as doing something on this,” said Sedat Lachiner of the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK). “In addition, they think they are in a powerful position in terms of international law, [they think] that they are right and thus push for diplomacy.”

    But although diplomacy is coming to the fore again, few hold out hope that it will pave the way for noteworthy progress in the long-running conflict.

    According to Lachiner, even without parliamentary elections approaching, Kocharian, who comes from Nagorno Karabakh and whose hawkish stance helps him keep political support at home, is adamant on his uncompromising views, which include insistence on the independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

    Ilter Turkmen, a former Turkey’s foreign minister, ruled out the possibility for a breakthrough from Tuesday’s talks, saying no progress is likely without serious international pressure on the parties, notably on Armenia, to move ahead toward a solution. Turkish Daily News

    Comment by Onnik — November 28, 2006 @ 4:49 pm

  7. Congragulation all the views are almost presented that careful reader could form an opinon….though Karabagh indepence is indisputable….and Azeri oppossition not much stemming from its so called territorial integrity , but almost ridiculous Pan Turkist (Pan Turanist …) project with Turkey….to unite with Azeri enclave in Iran included….

    Comment by Garo — November 30, 2006 @ 1:15 am

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