November 30, 2006


Further Progress on Karabakh?

While most observers are not expecting any breakthough in continuing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, RFE/RL carries what some might consider to be surprising news. That is, progress has been made after Kocharian and Aliyev yesterday met in Minsk on the sidelines of a CIS summit.

“I can say that we are already approaching the final phase of negotiations,” Aliev told Azerbaijani state television, commenting on his face-to-face talks with Kocharian held in Minsk late Tuesday.

[…]

Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who accompanied Kocharian on the Minsk trip, echoed Aliev’s positive mood as he spoke to journalists on his return to Yerevan on Tuesday night. “They [the presidents] mainly concentrated on the issues in the document [put forward by international mediators] on which no agreement has been reached,” he said. “I cannot say concretely whether progress was made or not, but both presidents assessed the meeting as positive in terms of atmosphere and constructive approaches.”

[…]

Kocharian’s most influential associate and potential successor, Serzh Sarkisian, also failed to shed more light on the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit, claiming that he is not yet informed about its results. Sarkisian reiterated instead that he is committed to achieving a “dignified peace” with Azerbaijan based on “mutual compromise,” even if that means liberating most of the Armenian-controlled Azerbaijani territories around Karabakh.

Well, I still doubt that any ground breaking agreement will be reached before parliamentary elections in Armenia next year and even before presidential elections in both republics the following year. Indeed, while there are signs that some moves are being made by both sides, the whole negotiation process seems as much of a pretense as it always has.

Still, who knows? Aliyev’s statement is certainly interesting.

Posted by Onnik @ 12:01 am. Filed under: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Karabakh, Caucasus, Russia, Military




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  1. And nobody here seems less confused than they normally are about Aliyev’s statement with the media divided on the issue, and Karabakh itself remaining unconvinced as today’s RFE/RL reports.

    “Hayots Ashkhar” says a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating process looks possible after the Minsk meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents. “We think we are seeing a much more complex game, the main player of which is neither the conflicting parties, nor Russia,” says the paper. “The latter is faced with a difficult choice because the international community and the United States in the first instance assign to Russia the key role in securing a breakthrough in efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict.” The paper speculates that the West is ready to go as far as to halt NATO’s further expansion if Moscow helps to end the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute.

    “It is evident that Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliev agree on dragging out the problem’s resolution as long as possible,” “Hayk” says, adding that they turned to Russia for that purpose ahead of the Minsk meeting. But, claims the paper, during the meeting both leaders were issued with an “ultimatum” on Karabakh. It says this fact exposed a “new radical change in Russian foreign policy which is not beneficial for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

    […]

    A senior Nagorno-Karabakh official brushed aside on Thursday Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev’s claims that Armenia and Azerbaijan moved closer to resolving their long-running territorial dispute during their latest high-level negotiations.

    “We are already approaching the final phase of negotiations,” Aliev told Azerbaijani state television following his talks in the Belarusian capital Minsk on Tuesday with President Robert Kocharian. He said they reached agreement on a number of contentious issues that have precluded the signing of a framework peace accord so far.

    The comments raised new hopes for a near-term solution to the Karabakh conflict. But a senior aide to Arkady Ghukasian, president of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, saw no cause for optimism.

    “If President Aliev is saying that the process is moving in a positive direction, that is quite dangerous in itself,” Arman Melikian told RFE/RL. “To my knowledge, his idea of positive direction is that Nagorno-Karabakh can not be an independent and sovereign state.”

    It is not clear if this was also a thinly veiled rebuke addressed to Armenia’s leadership that shared Aliev’s positive assessment of the Minsk talks.

    Comment by Onnik — November 30, 2006 @ 8:48 pm

  2. A1 Plus says that the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister considers that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached agreement on all but on issue in continuing negotiations to resolve the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh.

    “ONLY ONE ISSUE LEFT”

    “As I have already said, there are 8-9 components in the process of settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The majority has been agreed upon. Now we can say that there only one issue left to agree upon”, said Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov referring to the latest meeting between Kocharyan and Aliev.

    Nevertheless, the Azeri Foreign Minister did not mention which issue it is.

    “I can’t comment on it as it is a sensitive issue; any statement which is not agreed with the negotiating sides can harm the negotiation process”, Mammadyarov underlined.

    He said that after the last principle is agreed upon the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will become subject of public discussions.

    Sounds interesting, but as we don’t know what the particular issue is. — for example, if it’s the status of Karabakh — then we kind of have no progress at all. PanArmenian.net has the same story.

    Mammadyarov: There is One Unsettled Issue between Yerevan and Baku

    01.12.2006 13:24 GMT+04:00

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ There is one issue regarding the Nagorno Karabakh conflict Armenia and Azerbaijan have not settled yet, Azeri FM Elmar Mammadyarov said. “There are 8-9 principles in the Karabakh process and we have coordinated the majority of them. However there still remains an unsettled item and if we manage to come to an agreement on it we will make an advance,” he said. At that Mammadyarov did not clarify which item he was speaking about. “When the time comes I will say. I refrain from making comments now, since it’s a very delicate issue and any statements can damage the negotiation process. As a matter of fact, some forces in the region do not want the Nagorno Karabakh conflict to be settled. That is why we maintain confidentiality of the talks. When a decision is taken we will certainly make it public and discussions will be launched,” the Azeri FM said, reports Day.az.

    Still, today’s press conference given by the Armenian Foreign Minister is also interesting, and not least because the two Foreign Ministers will apparently be meeting next week in Brussels to “elaborate a package of documents.”

    Vartan Oskanian: Karabakh Talks Going On

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ The meeting of the Armenian and Azeri Presidents in Minsk was positive and proceeded in a good atmosphere, RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian told a news conference in Yerevan. In his words, the Presidents discussed the issues that needed coordination. “The talks have not reached a deadlock, they are going on. The Presidents ordered the Foreign Ministers to meet and elaborate a package of documents. The meeting will Elmar Mammadyarov will take place in Brussels on December 4 and we will consider the possibility of a new presidential meeting. As for the proposals I rate them as realistic and logical,” the Minister said.

    Vartan Oskanian also remarked that the Co-chairs of the OSCE MG on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement will be present at the meeting. Besides, the OSCE Foreign Ministers will discuss the activities of the organization and pass a political statement on conflicts, including the Nagorno Karabakh one. “We are holding talks with the Azeri side but agreement has not been achieved on some items yet,” Minister Oskanian underscored.

    Is this really all one final push to find a solution to the Karabakh conflict, or more games from both sides for international consumption?

    Comment by Onnik — December 1, 2006 @ 3:55 pm

  3. Two somehow very different stories on the same subject of the meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents have been published by RFE/RL’s Armenia Liberty and the International Herald Tribune.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan on Friday made differing assessments of the latest peace talks between their presidents, with Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian saying that progress reportedly made by them is overstated by the Azerbaijani side.

    His Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov insisted, however, that Presidents Ilham Aliev and Robert Kocharian agreed on all but one of the basic principles of a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict favored by international mediators.

    “As I have always pointed out, in the process of Karabakh settlement there are eight or nine principles, on most of which we have agreed,” Mammadyarov told the Day.az online news agency, commenting on Tuesday’s meeting in Minsk of Aliev and Kocharian. “And we can now say that there remains only one [unresolved] issue. If we manage to make progress on it as well, it will be possible to speak of a breakthrough.”

    Mammadyarov refused to disclose that issue, saying that it is “very sensitive.” His remarks are in tune with Aliev’s remarkably positive assessment of the Minsk talks. The Azerbaijani leader declared on his return from the Belarusian capital that the conflicting parties are nearing the “final stage” of the Karabakh peace process.

    While confirming that the talks were “positive” and “constructive,” Oskanian clearly did not share Aliev’s optimism. “It is really hard to say what stage were are in,” he told a news conference in Yerevan. “So I wouldn’t like to say that we are in the final stage. We still have numerous unresolved issues to deal with.”

    “There is still the question of bringing Nagorno-Karabakh into the negotiations,” continued Oskanian. “If Mr. Aliev thinks that we have really entered the final stage, then he must immediately agree to Nagorno-Karabakh’s participation [in the negotiations]. Because without Nagorno-Karabakh’s participation, at least in that final stage, the problem’s resolution is just impossible.”

    […]

    YEREVAN, Armenia: Armenia and Azerbaijan are discussing terms of holding a referendum on the status of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia’s foreign minister said Friday.

    […]

    Armenian foreign minister Vardan Oksanian said that the question of whether the region could be autonomous within Azerbaijan was a key issue in negotiations.

    “A resolution to this problem can be found only by a referendum, a proposal for which is contained in the document that the sides are discussing.”

    He said the referendum was proposed to take place “on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, with people who live there and lived there taking part.”

    Or maybe the stories aren’t so different at all. Basically, something is going on, and as we know that there is depopulation occuring in the area around Lachin, perhaps the phased solution to the conflict is actually going on unofficially leading the way to the signed agreement.

    However, RFE/RL’s Press Review seems to indicate that we’re not really sure what is happening. Maybe that’s what negotiators are counting on? Even so, with elections on the horizon, this is quite sensitive indeed.

    “Iravunk” says the Minsk meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will have “some continuation.” “It is quite likely that the continuation will be initiated by [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and will take place in Moscow,” the paper says, referring to a possible follow-up meeting between Ilham Aliev and Robert Kocharian. “In effect, the Armenian president has found himself in between two fires: either to resort to any steps to avoid any settlement of the Artsakh issue, or to quickly sign something and put himself at the mercy of the Americans. But this option too is fraught with pre-term presidential elections, their most extreme revolutionary version.”

    “The Karabakh conflict can not be solved at the negotiating table,” Levon Melik-Shahnazarian, a political analyst, tells “Hayots Ashkhar,” dismissing Aliev’s claims that the peace process is approaching its “final phase.” “I don’t think that Armenia is ready to cede those [occupied Azerbaijani] territories,” he says.

    Comment by Onnik — December 2, 2006 @ 2:05 pm

  4. Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    December 1, 2006 Friday

    MEETING OF PRESIDENTS OF AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA WAS HELD IN SECRECY

    The meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia was held in the Embassy of Russia in Minsk. At first, negotiations were conducted within a broad group with participation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, acting Chair of the OSCE Karl de Gucht, Russian co-chair of the Minsk OSCE group Yury Merzlyakov and personal representative of the OSCE Chair Andjei Kasprshik. According to unofficial sources, in the course of the meeting the parties reached certain agreements related to liberation of a number of districts around Nagorno-Karabakh. According to some other sources, the agreements deal with resolving the conflict in general. The parties have reached a verbal agreement and are going to fix them on paper a little later.

    Source: Turan news agency (Baku), November 29, 2006

    Comment by Onnik — December 2, 2006 @ 11:49 pm

  5. I support the world map as it is right now, is Nagorno-Karabakh is given to Armenia then why not give Eastern-Turkey to Kurds or why not Kismir to Pakistan, why no free Taiwan or Tibet. To many problems, for the easy answer Armenia should just give back Karabakh to Azerbaijan, maybe sell it for some money and investement by Azerbaijan.

    Comment by Duke — December 4, 2006 @ 8:27 pm

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