Well, we always knew that the 2007 parliamentary elections were going to be dirty and potentially volatile, but I don’t think any of us expected such a major event as that which happened this week to occur before the New Year. As posted here, here, and here, Lebanese-Armenian Zhirayr Sefilyan was arrested by masked and armed agents of the National Security Service (NSS) on Sunday accused of masterminding an alleged plot to overthrow the Government.

According to RFE/RL, contrary to earlier reports that Sefilyan migh be deported from Armenia, the former war hero will now face prosecution for planning a coup.

The National Security Service (NSS) says Sefilian, a veteran of the 1991-1994 war in Karabakh, set up a clandestine organization to mount an armed uprising against the government during parliamentary elections due next spring. Dozens of its alleged members were also briefly detained over the weekend.

A court in Yerevan was considering behind the closed doors late Tuesday the NSS’s request to keep Sefilian under arrest pending investigation. The suspect was expected to be remanded in pre-trial custody.

The NSS’s decision to formally charge Sefilian with publicly calling for a “violent change of constitutional order” suggested that he will not be deported from Armenia despite claims to the contrary made by his friends and associates.

[…]

The case against the decorated war veteran was condemned by more than a dozen Armenian opposition parties. In a joint statement issued late Monday, they accused the authorities of stifling dissent ahead of the upcoming elections and demanded his immediate release from jail.

A similar statement was also released by 18 members of Armenia’s parliament, most of them representing opposition factions. Three of them also offered to pay bail on Sefilian’s behalf.

Interestingly, Zhamanak Yerevan says that Sefilyan’s arrest was timed precisely to send a warning to other war veterans unhappy with the political situation in the country, and specifically Armenia’s position in negotiations with Azerbaijan to resolve the long-standing Nagorno Karabakh dispute. RFE/RL’s Press Review has an English-language summary of the paper’s op-ed.

“Zhamanak Yerevan” attacks the authorities over the arrest of Zhirayr Sefilian, a Lebanese Armenian who took part in the Karabakh war. The paper claims that not only Sefilian but the vast majority of other war veterans are highly critical of Armenia’s current leadership. Those who dare to challenge it openly are now risking imprisonment. “It was no coincidence that they arrested Zhirayr Sefilian, a representative of the defiant section of the freedom fighters, on the same day that they advised members of the Yerkrapah Union to stay away from politics.”

[…]

“Haykakan Zhamanak” says the case against Sefilian will likely become yet another example of political repression in Armenia. “Regardless of the circumstances of the case, it is somewhat unclear why they had to arrest Sefilian in a restaurant, in the presence of women, and why that could not have been done in broad daylight,” editorializes the paper.

Indeed, another story from RFE/RL yesterday confirmed that the influential war veterans will remain neutral. However, while Yerkrapah says they will not interfere in the political processes of the country, they also made it clear that they will not tolerate the military being used against the people. A rather ominous warning, I think.

Deputy Defense Minister Manvel Grigorian said Yerkrapah will not contest the elections in any way, even if some of its politically active members decide to enter the fray. He also stopped short of pledging support for Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian’s reputed plans to become Armenia’s next president.

[…]

Grigorian also spoke out against possible use of armed forces against peaceful demonstrators demanding regime change. “I personally won’t come out [against the people],” he said. “The army is supposed to defend the people. The army belongs to the people, it’s not private property.”

“He who uses the army against the people is not a member of the nation,” added the mustachioed general.

So, as we all knew, next year’s election, that will set the scene for succession to Kocharian in 2008, is shaping up to be quite an event. However, all signs are that it might also be the most volatile yet with many senior officials and businessmen set to lose everything in the event of a democratic vote. Of course, nobody is expecting the elections to be free, fair and transparent, but one can only hope that they’ll be better than what’s gone before.

Unfortunately, that’s probably the most we can hope for.

That said, while the stakes might be high for many individuals in power and business here, the elections are also crucial for Armenia’s slow democratization. There’s also a lot of international aid money that’s resting on the conduct of the election, and not least $236 million from the Millennium Challenges Account (MCA). Only $1.4 million has been disbursed so far with the remainder being conditional on the conduct of next year’s vote.

“In order for Armenia to continue to receive this funding, the Armenian government must maintain a high level of performance in ruling justly, investing in people and promoting economic freedom,” Anthony Godfrey, the U.S. charge d’affaires in Yerevan, told reporters in Yerevan. “Only by continuing to institute democratic reforms, including ensuring a free and fair process in the run-up to the 2007 and 2008 elections, can Armenia make sure that its people can continue to benefit from this $236 million program.”

[…]

Alex Russin, an MCC executive in charge of the compact’s implementation, made it clear that next year’s parliamentary elections will be a crucial test for the Armenian authorities’ stated commitment to democracy and rule of law. “We are concerned about the upcoming elections, and I hope that it will be a chance for the government and the Armenian people to demonstrate greater improvement over what happened last year,” Russin said in an apparent reference to the disputed November 2005 referendum.

The U.S. government strongly criticized the referendum and previous Armenian elections that were marred by serious fraud reported by local and international observers.

Yes, indeed. A lot rests on how elections in 2007 and 2008 are held, and not least the future of this small, landlocked, resource-limited and poverty-stricken country. What makes these elections interesting as well is that unlike two rounds of presidential elections in 2003, many of the Diaspora living in Armenia will be in the country for the vote next year.

They weren’t in February and March 2003 and many still don’t understand how elections are conducted here. Next May, when it’s not so cold as February and March so they’ll actually be in the country, they might just get their chance to witness elections Armenian-style. Hope they’re not disappointed, although most foreigners who get to see the farce first hand generally are.

On that, however, there’s some news I’m just dying to share with you , but for now I still can’t. Hopefully, I’ll be able to do so in the very near future. Watch this space.