2007 Parliamentary Election Monitor
Well, some good news for a change. While pro-democracy groups and the rest of us worry about the conduct of next May’s Parliamentary Elections, it seems as though we’re fretting over nothing. Today, for example, RFE/RL reports that the head of the Central Election Commission, Garegin Azarian, has ruled out the very idea of electoral fraud.
Unlike most other former Soviet Republics based on a system of corruption and nepotism, the Caucasian Armenian leopard is going to change it’s spots, Hoorah! Okay, so I’m being sarcastic. I don’t quite believe the news until I actually see it next year.
Garegin Azarian pointed to the enactment of fresh amendments to the Electoral Code and the CEC’s plans to put in place a computerized network which he said will allow for a more transparent and quicker counting and tabulation of votes.
The Armenian authorities say the amendments passed by the National Assembly this week will complicate ballot box stuffing and other forms of fraud that were commonplace during the previous parliamentary and presidential elections. In particular, voters will now have to put marked ballots into special envelops before casting them. Another amendment gives more rights to the proxies of election candidates as well as observers and journalists covering polling.
So all well and good, I suppose, but having observed two rounds of the 2003 presidential election as well as covered last year’s controversial and highly falsified referenum, making amendments to the law is one thing. Ensuring it actually works is quite another. Still, I’ll be only too happy to be proven wrong, but the only way we’re going to get democratic elections is making damn sure they are.
Meanwhile, an appeals court has ruled out the possibility that Zhirayr Sefilyan and Vardan Malhasyan can be released on bail pending investigation into still yet unproven charges that they were planning a coup d’etat. Sorry, but the evidence just isn’t there, and the timing and way the case has been handled sounds a little too fishy to me.
After seeing last week’s rally in their defense, I seriously doubt these guys could threaten a system so entrenched and controlled by oligarchs with their armed militia’s let alone the Interior Ministry Forces. Still, perhaps we can at least assume Sefilyan’s arrest means one of two things, or even both.
That is, Kocharian is ready to sign a concessionary deal with Azerbaijan, and secondly, the authorities are sending a warning message to anyone who might contest the conduct of next year’s vote. Keeping these guys in effective isolation and limbo seems pretty much what they always do when they want to get someone out the way for a while.
Anyway, RFE/RL has more.
Sefilian and Malkhasian, who deny their accusations as politically motivated, were remanded in pre-trial custody by a Yerevan court of first instance on December 12. The court refused to release them on bail, saying that they could flee the country, obstruct justice or exert “illegal influence” on investigators. The Court of Appeals accepted this line of reasoning despite claims to the contrary made by the suspects’ lawyers.
The charges stem from a December 2 meeting of HKH activists in Yerevan. Addressing them, Sefilian warned that “we will crack the head of anyone who will dare to surrender land” to Azerbaijan, adding that “there are many people in our country who are ready to do that.” The Lebanese Armenian, who is a prominent participant of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, urged supporters to organize themselves before attempting “to solve the matter with arms.”
“Getting rid of this criminal regime is a matter of national salvation,” Malkhasian stated, for his part. “We must fight them with their methods. Blood and fire on the enemy!”
Well, I’m guessing that it won’t be long before someone starts calling Sefilyan a “political prisoner,” but until then RFE/RL’s Press Review carries some translated commentary from the Armenian press. Obviously, pro-government and pro-opposition politicians take a different view of the same situation.
Gurgen Arsenian, the flamboyant leader of the pro-government United Labor Party (MAK), tells “Hayots Ashkhar” that Armenian voters must be made to undergo a “political detonation” ahead of next spring’s parliamentary elections. This, he says, is essential for ensuring a high voter turnout in the polls. “It is wrong to constantly tell the people that the elections will be rigged,” Arsenian attacks the opposition.
“Hayots Ashkhar” also quotes opposition leader Vazgen Manukian as saying that the past year has seen no political evolution in Armenia. Manukian sees a continuing “political crisis” in the country. “In that sense, Armenia has gone from bad to very bad,” claims the leader of the National Democratic Union.
Anyway, who cares? Much of the population has already taken Prosperous Armenia’s vote bribes, most Armenians are totally disillusioned with the very idea of the democracy promised by an often hypocritical U.S. and Europe, and anyway, as corruption remains unchecked, does it really matter who is in power? “They’ll all steal from the State,” is something very common to hear nowadays in Armenia.
Of course, I beg to differ. Politicians and politics usually stink the world over which is why there needs to be accountabiliy and transparency in elections so that those that don’t satisfy their electorate get voted out of power. Of course, this is Armenia and not the West, and next year’s vote looks likely to be decided in every other way than a democratic vote.
That is, vote bribes, ballot box stuffing, intimidation, and so on, while being sadly tolerated or not by the geo-political whims of Europe, the U.S. and Russia. Voting day itself just seems to be some kind of ritual that people have to at least pretend to go through. Still, I’ll say again — I’ll be happy to be wrong in my assumptions on this, but there’s no real sign that anything will be different than what’s gone before.
Still, never mind, I’m not a citizen of this country so it’s up to the population to make this country what they want it to be — or not, as the case may be. It’s their bed, so I suppose it’s up to them to lie in it. Besides, if some speculation on USAID’s position on the elections is correct, the authorities won’t be paying too much heed to any warnings from the West as nobody will risk stability in the Caucasus and progress in talks over Karabakh.
Instead, everybody with the ability to do so will falsifiy to as much an extent as they can before the U.S. and Europe cries foul, and even then, Washington in particular will only speak out if it appears as they have no choice or can use it to get some key concessions from elsewhere. Politically expedient press releases and justification for more money, I think, are the only things that matter to many in European and U.S circles anyway.
It’s a game. We saw that in last year’s parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan and we’ll see the same in Armenia next year. Enjoy the show.
Comment by Onnik — December 27, 2006 @ 11:23 pm
There’s one danger that the author of the above article hasn’t noted (but which doesn’t really affect the logic of the article). About $1000,000 annualy are allocated by the US/EU to Armenia for Physics research. Strangely enough these grants are awarded rather silently, without the usual fuss and showoffy attitude of often much smaller grant allocated to the NGO sector. This figure is estimated by a friend of mine, a prominent lazer physicist whose name I will refrain from naming(so this figure is a little subjective, but he has shown me enough proof to think it rather close to the point), but whose point can be illustrated by the following info: 1 | 2| 3 | 4, and there’s more if you like to google a little bit.
So why is all this money flowing to Armenia (and the other Ex-Soviets?Because if the Armenian Physics Scientists (who have in many cases studied in Russia and have all the theoretical knowledge and access to Uranium via the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant) are left completely without money and get an offer from Iran to develop a nuclear weapon they will do it, and they can!
At any rate - sadly as it is - Onnik and the 168Hours disclose a sad but true picture… we’ll wait and see…
Comment by Observer — December 28, 2006 @ 12:27 am
Re the Physics grants. Among other things Armenia has the most important thing in physics that is the tradition and strong school to develop some major stuff. Grants are given to keep the people closer to the books and away from neighbouring places. It is that simple. It is two birds with one stone as also the research and knowledge is passed to the funding party.
Coming to the ellections I am more positive as when the cup is full Mher wakes up. In 1988 who could imagine that a small country like Armenia would cause the break up of the USSR. It was unheard to protest in the streets after the 1960s when couple of demos in Russian provincial towns were silenced and the same people who were later involved in Karabakh Movement were bitten and spent some time in KGB cells and basement of the Opera house.
It is maturing and I can see it . The good thing in Bargavach Hayastan is that it is speeding up the proccess.
Comment by Haik — December 28, 2006 @ 1:46 am
Writing for RFE/RL, U.S. Analyst Richard Giragosian adds his 2 cents to the arrest of Sefilyan in the run-up to the 2007 parliamentary elections. Indeed, he discounts any links with Karabakh and says that the arrest, along with that of a Georgian-Armenian activist, is directly linked to concerns and paranoia from the authorities.
However, it’s worth pointing out that as far as I’m aware, Sefilyan has NOT been deported as Giragosian says. If anyone knows any different, please leave a comment.
Amen to that. Regardless of what the U.S. and Europe might expect in return for not penalising Armenia too hard for any misconduct, I really believe that this is the last chance for the country to evolve into a suitable state for its citizens. If it fails this test, Armenia will be a weaker country with less chance of a future than it had if the elections mark real progress.
Doesn’t matter who wins, in fact. It simply matters how.
Comment by Onnik — December 28, 2006 @ 3:48 pm
Who the hell is this US analyst Richard Kirakosian? I keep coming across his name. Since when have every Tom, Dick and Harry become ‘analysts’?
Comment by nazarian — December 28, 2006 @ 10:43 pm
Actually, Richard Giragosian has been around for a number of years, starting off writing digests of news from the Caucasus for ANCA, but now working full time as an analyst for RFE/RL and I guess some think tanks in the U.S. To be honest, I don’t think he’s close enough to events here, but on the other hand, that’s just my subjective opinion. Eh, the more information out there the better, no? I take it you disagree with Giragosian, so if that’s the case, I’m sure we’d all be interested in learning why.
Comment by Onnik — December 28, 2006 @ 10:52 pm
I also think it is premature to forsee the coming elections as being fraudulent or unfair or whatever else based on past elections and those recently held in neighboring countries. Yes, Prosperous Armenia has pretty much succeeded in bribing people around the country to become party members. But we have to understand that we are dealing with the Armenian phenomenon of unexpected decision change at the last minute. In this case, the decision to vote with conscience rather than 1000 dram in the pocket. Public service announcements by “civil society” building organizations on the radio, TV, and in newspapers stressing that an individual citizen’s vote really does matter would also help to sway voters to elect the candidates they really want and thus in a way make the election a bit more democratic than before, if that is in the end possible. But I do think it is possible, but it is up to the citizens of Armenia as you say and as I have written many times to ensure that their elections are free and fair no matter the costs. The people need to have faith in the electoral process to succeed in having fair elections. I don’t know really how people are going to figure all this out or if they ever will, but here’s hoping they do by the beginning of May.
Comment by cgarbis — December 29, 2006 @ 8:34 pm
Nah, we’re going to see a re-run of elections in Azerbaijan if we’re lucky. The only thing that might make it different will be if the parties of power start attacking each other given the issue of succession to Kocharian a year later.
However, apart from the ARF-D, who appear insignificant and impotent as a political force anyway, most people seem to consider apparant friction within the government to be a game to confuse people. Certainly, I’m undecided on this matter, so let’s see.
Anyway, God help anyone who takes Prosperous Armenia’s bribes and then doesn’t vote for them. That’s when I assume things will turn violent. On the other hand, we might witness a miracle and great progress towards democracy, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
There’s too much at stake. It’s as simple as that. On the other hand, perhaps hundreds of thousands of everyday Armenians taking Tsarukian’s bribes is the most we can expect in terms of democratization here if they then go and actually vote for him.
Interestingly, many downtrodden villagers seem to be attracted to the likes of him and Tigran Karapetyan so perhaps that is the evolution and progress we’ll see in a few months. To be honest, looking at the state of the opposition and civil society in Armenia, it probably is.
Comment by Onnik — December 29, 2006 @ 10:46 pm
RFE/RL carries an interesting story on voter disatisfaction on the eve of the polls, and the creation of the Prosperous Armenia party.
Comment by Onnik — December 29, 2006 @ 11:42 pm
i think some people have very short historical memory. It is acceptable and natural but not for a person who is a political analyst. Mr. Giragosian says
..From a broader perspective, and for much of the past 15 years of Armenia’s independence, politics have been largely confined to an ever narrowing set of issues, with little debate and even more limited discourse. Within the increasingly restricted political parameters, democratization has become disabled. This too is “nothing new for Armenia.”
This in not true as from February 20, 1988 till at least 1995 and maybe even as far as 1998 we had a functional democracy when people were involved in decision making. That makes not 15 years. As we are independent only for 15 years according Mr Giragosian the country was better off was when it was Soviet Armenia. He is probably one of those anti-independence kind.
Comment by Haik — December 31, 2006 @ 2:53 am
Well, from meeting Richard on one of his visits to Yerevan, I don’t think he’s one of the anti-independence types you talk of although he might be as cynical as the rest of us regarding democratization. That said, you make a good point regarding what has certainly been the erosion of the democratization process from 1996 onwards. Indeed, from reading the OSCE reports on presidential elections in 1996 and 2003, the last one seemed worse than LTP’s notorious “re-election.”
Anyway, I don’t agree with Richard’s take on some things, but then again he’s got his ear closer to other circles — Washington, for example. Therefore, it’s always interesting to read what he says about U.S.-Armenian relations because he’s privy to information that we’re not. Recently, for example, he spoke of Serzh Sarkisyan’s presidential ambitions and the U.S. position.
http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2006/10/05/washington-and-moscow-back-serzh-sarkisyan/
However, I’mnot inclined to buy fully into what Richard says about Sefilyan, and not least because what he was threatening was that if promises to return land were made to Azerbaijan they’d “crack heads.” Therefore, I don’t see this as some nationalist paranoia because we know that the Government will do that. The only thing that’s stopping them is Azerbaijan’s refusal to sign a deal.
Certainly, accelerated depopulation in the Kashatagh region adds some credibility to the information that we think we know about what’s being discussed. Besides, the process of preparing for a deal can actually occur before a framework is announced rather than waste time. On the other hand, I’m not even sure Sefilyan and his guys were in a position to do anything even if they wanted to.
Probably, his arrest served many purposes — a warning to the opposition here, a declaration of being serious about a compromise deal to the outside world, and probably the paranois that Richard speaks about in his article. Time will tell, and not least when 2 months of official detention are up. Will that period be extended, will Sefilyan and Malkhasyan be officially tried in a court of law, will the former be expelled etc.
Comment by Onnik — December 31, 2006 @ 3:04 am