Laid to rest, but the elections will go on © Onnik Krikorian / EurasiaNet 2007

Writing for EurasiaNet, RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan says that the death of the Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian will have a minimal impact on the parliamentary election campaign. The article also touches upon the question of Markarian’s successor as well as possible post-election tension in Armenia if the outcome of the May vote is falsified.

As Armenians come to grips with the sudden death of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, there are growing indications that his passing will not have a major impact on parliamentary elections scheduled for May 12.

Past experience suggests that that outcome will be decided not so much by the electorate, but by actions taken by the country’s two most powerful men: President Robert Kocharian and Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian. […]

[…]

Serzh Sarkisian is now tipped to be appointed prime minister by Kocharian. Media reports citing government sources have said the appointment will be announced in the coming days. Kocharian’s office and leaders of his loyal majority in parliament, who held urgent consultations on the matter on March 26, have not officially confirmed this yet. Majority leaders have said only that the RPA will continue to control the post of prime minister at least until the parliamentary elections.

[…]

[…] He is expected to heavily rely on the RPA’s control of most central and local government bodies, extensive patronage networks, and a strong presence on election commissions. The use of “administrative resources” proved decisive in the party’s victory in the 2003 parliamentary elections, which were marred by reports of widespread fraud.

[…]

“The RPA will have to resort to much more vote rigging than was planned,” agreed Hayk, another paper that is often critical of the government.

Widespread vote-rigging would increase the likelihood of post-election unrest in Armenia. Markarian played a major role in easing bitter standoffs between the government and the opposition in the past. He was among the few top members of the government camp who seemed reluctant to attack opposition leaders, and who privately communicated with even the bitterest foes of the Kocharian-Sarkisian team. This explains why virtually all prominent opposition members lavished praise on Markarian in the days following his March 25 death from heart failure. As opposition lawmaker Stepan Zakarian put it, “Nobody in Armenia hated him. Both the opposition and pro-government forces maintained good relationships with the prime minister.”

[…]

A lot depends on how Kocharian will behave in this situation. He is believed to be planning to hand over power to Sarkisian and remain in government in some capacity after completing his second and final term in office in less than a year from now. To that end, Kocharian is reportedly sponsoring another election frontrunner, the populist Prosperous Armenia Party of businessman Gagik Tsarukian, both as his new support base and as a counterweight to the RPA. The Armenian press has for months been speculating about a possible electoral clash between the two political groups.

But analyst Yenokian is among those who see little prospect for such confrontation. “Everything continues to be decided by Kocharian and, to a lesser extent, Sarkisian, and a serious conflict between these two individuals is, therefore, extremely unlikely,” he said.

The full article is here.

RFE/RL reports that the Defense Minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, looks likely to become the next Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia following the death of Andranik Markarian last weekend. According to the report, a decision on Sarkisyan’s nomination by the ruling Republican Party looks to be nothing more than a formality when it meets to discuss the matter on Monday.

“Since a political agreement has been reached to leave the post of prime minister to the Republican Party, the April 2 meeting of the HHK council will discuss and decide the HHK candidate for the post,” the party spokesman, Eduard Sharmazanov, told RFE/RL. “In all likelihood, the board will nominate its chairman, Mr. Serzh Sarkisian.”

“At this point, no other candidacies are being considered,” he said.

[…]

Sarkisian was linked with the post even before Markarian’s death. Observers speculated that he will head the Armenian cabinet after the May 12 parliamentary elections as part of his reputed plans to succeed Kocharian as president next year. The HHK’s victory in the polls is essential for the success of those plans.

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Oneworld Multimedia recently received this from a reliable source within one of the international community’s representations in Armenia. Obviously, it concerns the upcoming May election and specifically whether the Armenian postal service is up to the task now expected of it.

Haypost negotiated last year with government and police about delivery of the voting notice cards. Initially it seemed the government wanted to cut costs for example by only sending one notice per family. However, it was decided in the end that it will be one notice per voter. This means that Haypost has to deliver 2.3 million cards in 4 weeks. Regular postal turnover at Haypost is about 100 000 pieces a month. So in one month, their turnover will be that of 2 years.

Haypost is managing the order of the cards. Extra measures have been to ensure as many people as possible receive the notice cards. However, many addresses not having a mailbox will make the task very difficult.

Haypost is also dealing with printing (addresses, logos, etc) of the cards - a special print and enveloping location with equipment has been put in place.

The voters (address) list will be provided about 6 weeks prior to the elections by the police [voters can still make changes 5 days prior to the elections]. This of course determines the critical path of print and delivery process on the one hand and on the other quality and accuracy.

Haypost has a feeling that the voters address list isn’t accurate because many people are registered somewhere else than where they actually live.

Due to this problem, precautionary measures will be taken to ensure that even these people receive the notice [HOW wasn’t specified]. However, the risk still remains that many voters will not have a notice as the list is not clean.

Haypost ensured that they will do their best to deliver to everyone, fully realizing that it remains a huge operation with political risks.

Interesting exercise…

As part of the CRD-TI Armenia Election Monitor 2007 blogging project, both myself and Zarchka from Life Around Me hoped to find, nurture and assist young potential bloggers in Armenia. Indeed, one such find was “Stubborn,” a student who we met last week. After speaking to him about a potential post, he’s now made a guest entry on the CRD-TI Armenia Election Monitor 2007 site. After the project officially ends next week, we hope to help him establish his own blog.

[…]

It’s not a secret that the election campaign has started long before it officially should, and some of the parties are busy distributing financial aid, spectacles, and other items as well as promising to solve all the problems faced by the electorate even though they lack the necessary resources to do so.

For example, Prosperous Armenia Party has organized free transportation for students from the regions to attend classes at their colleges and universities in Yerevan.

Well, elections don’t happen every day and it’s not surprising that students take any given opportunity to save several hundred drams every day. Obviously, rather than this happen only at times just before elections, it would be desirable if this took place permanently or if the financial situation of families were improved.

[….]

The reason for this is apathy, indifference, and not seeing anything past their own noses. And there’s no need to look for who’s guilty, as everyone who doesn’t demand that the promises given at elections are kept is. “Uh… they lied,” they say and keep silent. That’s what the parties understand, and that’s why they flood their pre-election programs with promises they can’t keep.

[…]

Some of the students worried that their identification documents which had been collected in order to receive a pass for the buses would now result in their names appearing in the party’s membership list. A member of the party could not confirm or deny this possibility when asked and instead appeared shocked by the sudden interest from the students, thus giving them reason to be concerned.

However, other students didn’t seem to care at all. It was a free service, so forget about principles!

The full post is here.

Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / EurasiaNet 2007

Yevrobatsi has translated the text that accompanied photographs from yesterday’s State Funeral of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian into French. EurasiaNet has aready made the text available in Russian, but its nice when others also take the time to translate it, as Yevrobatsi has.

L’Arménie a dit adieu, le 28 mars, au Premier Ministre ayant servi le plus longtemps pendant la courte histoire de l’Arménie indépendante post-soviétique. Andranik Markarian est mort le 25 mars d’une crise cardiaque, moins de deux mois avant les élections législatives.

Même si le Premier Ministre, âgé de 55 ans, était connu pour sa santé fragile et qu’il se déplaçait fréquemment à l’étranger pour suivre des traitements pour les maladies cardiaques, cette mort a tout de même été un choc pour beaucoup de gens. Cet évènement se révèle être un des évènements politiques les plus importants avant les élections de mai, qui sont vues comme un des tests de démocratisation les plus importants pour cet Etat du sud Caucase.

[…]

Des délégations des États-unis, de Russie, de Grèce, de l’OTAN, de l’OSCE, et des membres des Etats indépendants furent parmi ceux qui ont assisté aux funérailles à l’Opéra Académique d’Etat, et au Théâtre de Ballets du centre de Erevan. La Turquie, accompagnée de l’Azerbaïdjan, n’ayant pas de relation diplomatique avec l’Arménie, ont envoyé leur ambassadeur géorgien à la cérémonie.

Yevrobatsi’s translated version of the EurasiaNet photo story is here.

Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Armenia today said farewell to the longest serving prime minister in its short history as an independent, post-Soviet state. Andranik Markarian died on March 25 from a heart attack less than two months before parliamentary elections considered to be the most important test for democracy yet faced by Armenia.

Today, thousands of Armenians turned out to bid farewell to Markarian whose coffin was brought to the Yerevan Opera to lie in state for just under three hours before being taken to the Komitas Pantheon in a State Funeral which involved Government members, representatives of the international community, and of course, the Armenian President.

I was there covering the event for EurasiaNet which has just published my photo story on Armenia burying its Prime Minister.

[…]

The political ramifications of Markarian’s death are so far unknown, but any speculation on how it will affect the ruling Republican Party, of which he was chairman, was lost on the hundreds of Armenian citizens who converged on his home to pay their respects at a March 27 wake intended for relatives, friends and political associates. Hundreds waited for as long as two hours to get their chance to enter his modest apartment, situated in a typical Soviet era block on the outskirts of the capital, Yerevan.

That affinity for the ordinary may be how many people, including his political opponents, many of whom attended the wake, will remember Markarian. He had served as Armenia’s prime minister since 2000. Although many Armenian officials are renowned for their lavish lifestyles, the late prime minister was generally considered a more modest man, known for treating political rivals and citizens alike as his equals.

[…]

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Avan, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

RFE/RL reports that hundreds of Armenians flocked to the apartment of the late Prime Minister, Andranik Markarian, to pay their last respects. Actually, I was there as well as I’m putting together a photo story for EurasiaNet.

Security forces had trouble controlling a crowd that filled the courtyard outside Markarian’s second-floor apartment in the city’s northern Avan district. His body lay in state there in a private ceremony which was supposed to be attended by his relatives, friends and colleagues.

The incessant stream of people turned it into a public event, even though not everyone was able to enter the apartment and offer their condolences to the family of the deceased. Many silently stood in the courtyard for several hours.

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RFE/RL reports that the former military commander of Nagorno Karabakh, Samuel Babayan, has withdrawn his candidacy from the Goris constituency where he was set to face off with Alexander Sarkisyan, brother of the Defense Minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, in a showdown that many anticipated would be fiercely contested.

Babayan and businessman Aleksandr Sarkisian have been the main candidates in the constituency encompassing the town of Goris and the surrounding area, setting the stage for one of the most exciting individual contests in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Sarkisian is strongly backed by the governing Republican Party (HHK), while Babayan’s Dashink (Alliance) party claims to be in opposition to the Armenian government.

In a written statement issued on Tuesday, Dashink said the once powerful general will withdraw his candidacy and will contest the May 12 elections only on the nationwide party list basis. It also endorsed another opposition candidate running for parliament from the Goris district. The candidate represents the opposition Zharangutyun party led by former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian.

The full post is here.

Alexander Sarkisyan, Republic Party HQ, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian, Oneworld Multimedia 2007

RFE/RL has a more detailed report on the resignation of the entire cabinet as demanded by Article 55 of the Armenian Constitution. According to the report, and as reported by other media outlets, the President must name a new Prime Minister with the approval of the National Assembly within the next 10 days.

As mentioned on this blog when news of Markarian’s death surfaced, there were really only two or three real possibilities, but now all eyes are on who many consider to be the most obvious choice, especially as he was widely tipped to replace Markarian after the May parliamentary election anyway.

The most likely candidate for the post is the influential Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, the number two figure in the party’s leadership. He was increasingly regarded as the governing party’s real top leader even before the 55-year-old premier’s death.

A source in the presidential administration told RFE/RL that Kocharian has already decided to name Sarkisian prime minister. Kocharian’s press service denied the information, however.

Sarkisian cancelled a planned visit to China and rushed back to Yerevan from Moscow late on Sunday. He visited the HHK headquarters in the city center at around midnight and left it several minutes later, refusing to speak to journalists. It was thus unclear whether he discussed the question of who should succeed Markarian with other members of the party’s governing board.

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RIA Novosti reports that after holding an emergency session with the Armenian President, Robert Kocharian, the Government has resigned following the death of the Prime Minister, Andranik Markarian. The session included a minute’s silence in his memory.

YEREVAN, March 26 (RIA Novosti) - Armenian President Robert Kocharyan has accepted the government’s resignation following the death of Prime Minister Andranik Markaryan, a government spokesman said Monday.

PM Markaryan, 55, the leader of the Republican Party, part of a ruling coalition, died of a heart attack March 25.

“The head of state has directed Cabinet members to continue with their duties until a new Cabinet of Ministers is formed,” the spokesman said.

Under Armenia’s Constitution, the president can accept the government’s resignation if the post of prime minister becomes vacant for any reason.

A new prime minister is to be appointed within 10 days, while a new government is to be formed within 20 days following the prime minister’s appointment.

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A1 Plus reports that the civil funeral procession of the late Prime Minister Andranik Markarian who died yesterday will take place on March 27 from his home in the Avan district of Yerevan. His body will be taken to the Opera House where it will lie in state before being buried the following day.

The state special commission at the head of RA NA Speaker Tigran Torosyan, informs that the civil funeral of the Armenian Prime Minster will take place at Sayat-Nova 8, Avan District, at 5:00 p.m., on March 27.

The last farewell will take place in the Academic Opera and Ballet Theatre after Alexander Spendaryan at 12:00 p.m., on March 28. The funeral will take place in the Pantheon after Komitas at 3:00 p.m.

A1 Plus also reports that a national day of mourning has been declared the same day. On 28 March, all government buildings in the republic as well as abroad will fly the Armenian flag at half-mast.