March 26, 2007


Consultations, Respects & Speculation

26 03 07 0003

Alexander Sarkisyan, Republic Party HQ, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian, Oneworld Multimedia 2007

RFE/RL has a more detailed report on the resignation of the entire cabinet as demanded by Article 55 of the Armenian Constitution. According to the report, and as reported by other media outlets, the President must name a new Prime Minister with the approval of the National Assembly within the next 10 days.

As mentioned on this blog when news of Markarian’s death surfaced, there were really only two or three real possibilities, but now all eyes are on who many consider to be the most obvious choice, especially as he was widely tipped to replace Markarian after the May parliamentary election anyway.

The most likely candidate for the post is the influential Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, the number two figure in the party’s leadership. He was increasingly regarded as the governing party’s real top leader even before the 55-year-old premier’s death.

A source in the presidential administration told RFE/RL that Kocharian has already decided to name Sarkisian prime minister. Kocharian’s press service denied the information, however.

Sarkisian cancelled a planned visit to China and rushed back to Yerevan from Moscow late on Sunday. He visited the HHK headquarters in the city center at around midnight and left it several minutes later, refusing to speak to journalists. It was thus unclear whether he discussed the question of who should succeed Markarian with other members of the party’s governing board.

Nevertheless, it’s always too early to say for sure, especially as almost anything can happen in Armenian politics and generally does. Certainly, everything is simply speculation until the new Prime Minister is named. Until then, representatives from all parties on both sides of the political divide continue to visit the Republican Party HQ in central Yerevan to pay their last respects.

In just two hours of standing outside the HQ late this afternoon, figures as varied as opposition figure Arshak Sadoyan and Yezidi representative Hassan Tamoyan could be seen leaving the building while other senior figures such as Vardan Ayvazyan and former Social Security Minister Razmik Martirosian loitered outside and others such as the Defense Minister’s brother, Alexander Sarkisyan, came and went.

Earlier, and seemingly in high spirits, three senior members of the ARF-D — Armen Rustamian, Levon Mkrtchian and Norayr Davidian — visited the HQ before walking out straight into an interview with H1, Haykakan Zhamanak and RFE/RL. Later, one drunken man — presumably homeless — staggered into the HQ car park shouting “sheep” at senior members of the Republican Party, including the Minister of Environment, until a shaven headed bodyguard from one of the luxury motorcades parked nearby dragged him away.

As the light started to go, however, I decided to leave at about 6.50 pm, but only after the Defense Minister, and now number one figure in the Republican Party, arrived with a tell-tale police escort. Of course, he entered the HQ through the back entrance even though, other than myself, there were no other journalists around. Nevertheless, it was possible to clearly identify Sarkisyan sitting in the front of one of the vehicles.

Not sure where he was coming from, but I don’t suppose it matters. For now, most of us are waiting to hear whether the Defense Minister will be made Prime Minister or not. Probably, it will be one of the most important developments in the run up to the coming election, and it’s no surprise that RFE/RL have just this minute posted another story.

Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian appeared on Monday in pole position to become Armenia’s next prime minister amid indications that his Republican Party (HHK) will continue to control the post at least until the May 12 parliamentary elections.

[…]

Armen Rustamian, a Dashnaktsutyun leader, confirmed that the main pro-Kocharian parties agreed that the next prime minister should also represent the Republicans. “I think it would be very natural for the post of prime minister to be reserved for the Republican Party,” Rustamian told RFE/RL. “We are ready to support any candidate nominated by the Republican Party.”

“There are suggestions that [the next premier] will be Serzh Sarkisian. If that’s the case, we will support Serzh Sarkisian,” he said.

26 03 07 0004

Levon Mkrtchian and Norayr Davidian, Republic Party HQ, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian, Oneworld Multimedia 2007

26 03 07 0006

Armen Rustamian, Republic Party HQ, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian, Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Posted by Onnik @ 9:49 pm. Filed under: Armenia, Democracy, Politics, Caucasus, Elections, 2007 Parliamentary Election




18 Comments »

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  1. Hovik, that quote is from the RFE/RL article although upon hearing the news of Markarian’s death I also instantly thought first of Abrahamian, and not least because he is considered the unofficial Deputy Prime Minister anyway.

    However, the choice was only really going to be those two, I think. Serzh or Abrahamian, although I suppose we shouldn’t discount others in the Republic Party such as Tigran Torosian.

    Nevertheless, the main question on everybody’s lips now is not “Who will be the next Prime Minister?” It’s instead “Will it be Serzh or not?” This is especially the case since some analysts suspected him of replacing Markarian after the May election anyway.

    Remember, being Prime Minister does not prevent you from running for President. Indeed, the last person who did that was Kocharian. Anyway, I would agree that Abrahamian is a possibility and I’ve said so in most of these posts.

    However, most people are automatically assuming it will be Serzh. Now, we’re simply waiting to hear. Certainly, the focus of RFE/RL and other media outlets is on this possibility. As does EurasiaNet.

    Already speculation has begun about who will likely succeed the 55-year-old Markarian, Armenia’s longest serving prime minister and president of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). Most observers see Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, arguably the former cabinet’s most influential member, as the frontrunner for the post. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The defense minister, who served as chairman of the board of the ruling Republican Party, was named the party’s acting chairman following Markarian’s death.

    In a March 26 statement, Armen Rustamian, a representative of the Supreme Council of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Party, a fellow member of Armenia’s ruling coalition with the Republican Party, affirmed that his party would support Sarkisian for prime minister, the Regnum news agency reported.

    “According to the 2003 agreement, the prime minister’s portfolio belongs to the RPA, and for this reason the head of the government must be a representative of the Republican Party,” Rustamian said, in reference to the coalition formed following Armenia’s last parliamentary elections. “If the government decides to nominate Serzh Sarkisian for this post, then the ARF will support this candidacy.”

    The EurasiaNet article is here.

    Comment by Onnik — March 27, 2007 @ 10:25 am

  2. Armenia Now, however, also examines what was my initial gut reaction as well. It says that the most likely successor is Abrahamian, and explains why.

    The short-term nature of the activities of the new prime minister or acting prime minister is interpreted in the context of the balance of political power in the country and in this respect Margaryan’s possible successor acquires special importance. The name of Minister for Local Government Hovik Abrahamyan is often given in this aspect. The perception of 49-year-old Abrahamyan as Margaryan’s likely successor is conditioned by several factors.

    First, it was he who as a rule performed prime-ministerial duties when Prime Minister Magaryan was absent. For example, when Margaryan was on vacation from July 14 to August 6, in 2003, Abrahamyan performed the duties of the prime minister for the whole duration of Margaryan’s vacation. Similarly, that same year, when Margaryan went to Moscow for medical treatment, Abrahamyan filled the post. In fact, no one other than Abrahamyan has acted on behalf of Margaryan in the past seven years.

    Secondly, Abrahamyan is known as an irreplaceable executive and he was the one who was as a rule tasked with difficult problems that required forthright solution. In particular, it was Abrahamyan who headed the intergovernmental commission on the transportation to Armenia of the bodies of victims in last May’s A320 air crash and the organization of their funeral. He was the one who initiated the allocation of 1.5 million drams (about $3,400) to the families of each victim. Analysts say Abrahamyan’s executive abilities put him in good standing for the temporary premiership.

    Abrahamyan is highly regarded in spheres where he coordinates reforms – agriculture and public health in regions. He is also in charge of the implementation of administrative reforms. Abrahamyan himself (who has been nicknamed “mouse”) appears content to stay unnoticed, although given charge over important issues puts him in the spotlight – if only internally.

    However, it also looks at the possibility of Serzh taking over, and interestingly within the context of the Constitution and past precedents. Now that’s got to be a first for Armenian journalists…

    […] the starting positions of another possible candidate for the post of the republic’s prime minister or “acting PM”, Minister of Defense, Secretary of the President-attached Security Council Serzh Sargsyan may appear to be more attractive, but there are certain problems here. Unlike Hovik Abrahamyan, who is quite content with third positions under any authorities, Serzh Sargsyan is more independent and his ambitions are also more singular.

    Armenia’s MOD is obviously eyeing the position of Commander in Chief, while Hovik Abrahamyan feels only like a “trump card” of the authorities. Apart from other things, the head of the defense department cannot but know that his appointment as Margaryan’s successor will provoke a wave of public-political indignation and all sorts of speculations, which on the threshold of parliamentary elections and later the presidential election are not expedient. By force of his image Serzh Sargsyan ought to win new political heights in an “evolutionary” and not “revolutionary” way, which may be his corresponding appointment in the current force majeur situation. If he doesn’t withstand the temptation of this choice and “stake his all”, it may cost him dearly in the prospect of his political career.

    Whatever the speculation, prediction or rumor, the Constitution stipulates that:

    1. The current Government must resign (it did so, pro forma, today)
    2. The president must appoint a new prime minister within 10 days after the resignation of the Government
    3. A new Government must be established 20 days after appointment of a new prime minister

    here is some speculation that there will be no specially appointed prime minister at all until May 12 and his functions will be performed by an official in the status of “acting prime minister”. There is such a precedent in Armenia – the early presidential election of 1998 passed in conditions when then Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan simultaneously was “acting president”. It is not excluded that Kocharyan may act as prime minister, as according to the constitution, he is head of the executive and formally presides over government meetings.

    Certainly, given the potential battle between Prosperous Armenia and the Republicans if the political environment in Armenia were to become unbalanced, I’m not personally sure that Serzh would be a good choice. Also personally speaking, I’m not sure Abrahamian would too, and not least because his area around Artashat as been the scene of significant conflict with the opposition in the past.

    That’s why I also wonder if someone like Torosian isn’t a better choice, although I suppose he’d be “weak” in comparison to Serzh or Abrahamian. Probably, the option of Kocharian being in control with an “acting Prime Minister” under him might be the most “stable” option, regardless of whether Serzh officially takes over control of the Government. Dunno. Let’s see.

    Comment by Onnik — March 27, 2007 @ 12:26 pm

  3. It is pathetic to see almost each and every compatriot in priory reconciled with the idea that the post of PM of RA “reserved” for the sort of Serzhik or H. Abrahamyan (nickmamed “MOOK”) or Tigran Torossian, or even “wonderkid” Davit Harutyunian or any other collaborator of the same club, who was either a conspirator in ” October 27″ State Treason, or cowardly lied down face to ground during the mentioned terrorist operation and afterwards dealt with the situation as “fait acomplit”. Indeed, a tribe of unimportant people who have no spirit whatsoever to revolt against the imposed reality and lack honesty and guts to struggle in order to take over the proper fate into his proper hands. Really Pathetic!

    Comment by Hye Azad — March 27, 2007 @ 1:33 pm

  4. I see some happy and satisfied dashnak faces around here. Attentively examine the “mourning” faces of “Valem Plaza” co-owner dashnak Levon Mkrtchyan and “Dro” terrorist case ex-convict Armen Roustamian and you should notice fulfillment, face expressions talk hide great expectations. Akhorzhagnerout qatsakh!

    Comment by Hye Azad — March 27, 2007 @ 1:40 pm

  5. In above picture Levon Mkrtchian looks like Tony Soprano (from “The Sopranos”) when he is satisfied after something nice happens to his dealings e.g. clipping a rival, beating up trade unionists or getting a fat envelope.
    I guess Serge was the person who gained the most. He will probably become the prime Minister and swap it with Kocharian when he makes himself as a president. But it is also possible that they would put somebody not that much known as an interime person, like they did after oct 27 and then Serge becomes prime minister after the May 12 ellection. That way he will be presented as a more a person who is not appointed because of fate but because he wants to.

    Comment by Haik — March 27, 2007 @ 4:02 pm

  6. It is strange to read all above comments and yet not draw one conclusion.No, not the obvious one that some might expect as another similar. However, I do not think and judge the way most do. Nothing special about mine for that matter, except that avoid heresy and conjectures, delving upon the sad and rather poor , hastily formed political (are these?) con-clusions. To begin with the arena so to speak is aplenty with dozens of political party-mainly unlike any other on the Western Hemisperic country ones-activists trying a hand at it and going for the upcoming Parliamentary Elections…..each on its own. I dare say some even aspiring more important posittions. Whereas given the population size, hence an electorate that ought to be actually elected to be their true delegates from amongst theselves, are haphazardly there on the scene vying for seats at the arliaments.
    The concept of an elected delegate is to be like the forefathers of a great nation propheced and declared,FROM THE PEOPLE BY THE PEOPLE AND FOR THE PEOPLE. Which is NOT practiced unfortunately,at least not for the a population that has exploded worldwide immensely. In those times the electing populace was limited and the method employed and followed through ” campaigning’ later intensified over the two three centuries by mainly money spending. Whereas thus doing the those who were in a position to “spend gained votes, seats, AS NOW, in almost every country.
    “A New Concept of Electoral System and Governace” that this writer came up with when the 1990 Newly Independent RA parliament was being formed and submted for perusal, was later repeated and published in an English language Armenian newspaper “Hye Gyank ” of .a. and afterwards registered a t the D.C. Registrar’s office as intelectual property”. In Brief, it advocates Elections through a crystalization method of “Prffessional colleagues Associations ” appointing /nomiating their delegates to parliaments,congresses,Senates to have their place ALONGSDE THE POLTICAL PARTY DELEGATES.For today’s PCA’s are not yesteryear’s telegraphists, usurpers, but IT exerts, Bankers etc., these are the major elements that constitute the backbone of an electorate in their constituencies NOT attracted by “campainging” but elected for their real Worth. And I set forth 3 Merits for which from each constituency ’s 15/16 fields of proffessions these should be elected. One culturally nat’l, Int’l advanced a nd with networking capacities, One economically advanced in his/her field a nd one professionally so.Political party delegates with their idealistic stance indeed will gon on performing their roles as before.However THESE NEW ELEMENTS HIGHLY ADVACED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIELDS , but not ideologically ORIENTED have to have a say and represent A POPULACE THAT IS INSCREASINGLY PROFFESSIONALZED. Please enter my www.ARMENIDAD-WORLDWIDE.org for further details and thak you for reading me.
    Hamahaigagani Siro, gaytzag palandjian

    Comment by gaytzag palandjian — March 27, 2007 @ 6:32 pm

  7. Թե ՀՀՇ-ն ինչի սրանց բերեց ու երկրի գլխին փորձանք բացեց, չգիտեմ.

    Comment by nazarian — March 27, 2007 @ 6:35 pm

  8. Hayk, whoever you are, have left the impression of a wise person upon me. Having read you comments in Onnig’s blog for some time now, I deeply appreciate your analyses of the developments in the Fatherland? If you are a diasporan Armenian, then you are a rare, valuable case of course. Apres!

    Comment by Hye Azad — March 28, 2007 @ 10:18 am

  9. Inch e yergar-parag jamardagum es Paylag Palanjian@, ban ch@hasgatsa! Yete hasgatsogh yeghav, togh 1 poqr barberutyamb batsatri, yete gareli e.

    Comment by Hye Azad — March 28, 2007 @ 10:23 am

  10. We keep assuming that Serge Sargsyan will undoubtedly be the next Prime Minister, then the President in 2008. Although the former may turn out to be true, I can’t help but stress that it is the Armenian people who will determine the next Armenian President, not news analysts, journalists, or anyone else. Assuming that the presidential elections are free and fair, if Serge is elected so be it. But I don’t understand this bowing down to rumors and speculation. Democracy must pevail in Armenia, that’s all.

    Comment by cgarbis — March 28, 2007 @ 11:27 am

  11. David Harutyunyan will never become a president not only because he will not be ellected but because he will never be allowed by patriots. This is because at thenext day of his term he will sell the country and start his early retirment in Bahamas. He is a type of a person who look right in your eyes and lie. Remember his bullshit when he was representing Armenian government in negotiations over VoiceOver IP with ArmenTel. He was supporting Armentel. The same story on the Yerevan landappropriations,.He has a strong history in supporting oligarchs over the people. On the other hand his department is the most corrupt.
    In short he is an evil wonderkid ( i althoughdoubt in this as in Soviet time in most of the times it was the opposit) like the Brain in “Pinky and the Brain”.

    Comment by Haik — March 28, 2007 @ 1:37 pm

  12. Thanks Hye Azad
    I am not sure if I am a Diasporan or a local as I lived in both environments for almost equal amount of time. I am just a concerned Armenian who would like to see Armenia as a country better than any other country where I lived in, basically because I know that the foreign land is not firm enough under my feet and I wouldnt like my kids and kids of any other person to experience that.
    What’s your name Hy Azad as we might know each other.

    Comment by Haik — March 28, 2007 @ 3:21 pm

  13. Hayk jan, I’m sure we have something in common, as it became obvious that one of our main concerns in life is to see Armenia a free, democratic and prosperous country. Not just by slogans (as many declaratively do), but by daily effort. Remember General Andranik Ozanian’s will? “Think about your people, induce efforts for their well-being even for 5 minutes a day, but let it be on a daily basis”.
    Please contact me at my e-mail address azadhye88@hotmail.com , if you consider it appropriate.
    You’re absolutely right about “Vunderkind - Wonderkid” David Harutyunian, and his “odd” behaviour in the Armentel case has to do exclusively with personal ends, at the expense of state interests. D. Harutyunian, being one of Kocharyan’s most trusted business subordinates (along with [in]famous “Armenchik” Gevorkian) and maintains similar “honest” connections “Vivacell” investors, the Lebanese Fattoush family. Kocharyan’s last “private” visit to Lebanon targetted these “state” business, the manager of which happens to be the “Wonderkid”.

    Comment by Hye Azad — March 28, 2007 @ 5:55 pm

  14. cgarbis, in a fair and free environment what you are saying may be considered true. But as a person who has lived in Armenia for the last few years and has witnessed ‘elections’ and a ‘referendum’ there, I am guessing that what you are saying is a wishful thinking.

    Comment by nazarian — March 28, 2007 @ 6:29 pm

  15. Right. Garo, you haven’t been here during a national election — presidential or parliamentary although I can’t remember if you were here for the November 2005 Referendum. Think you were in the U.S., but anyway, the May vote will be your first time.

    Would love for it to meet international standards for democratic elections even if you get to miss a taste of how things are usually done in the post-Soviet space, but let’s see. Nazarian’s point is it, though. If the environment was free and fair what you say would be true.

    To date, it hasn’t been, and now we’re waiting until April and the official campaign period to see what will be this time round. Here’s hoping that these elections will set a precedent…

    Comment by Onnik — March 28, 2007 @ 8:18 pm

  16. Sireli Nazarian,
    Ankam ishkhanutyun@ handznelouts aveli qan 9 tari ants, HHSh-its haladzakhtov es tarrapum, aper?
    Aynouhetev, HHSh-n, i gitutyun qez, inqnamaqrvets mechi patehapasht zibili (i nkati ounem aysorva ishkhanutyan “seroutsq@”` Kocharyan+Serzh+Arthur Baghdassarian & Co. - hashvi charnelov ARF-dashnaktsutyun@) dours galov. Ayntegh mnatsin batsarapes skzbounqayin ou irents gaghaparnerin nvirvadz ou havatarim gordzichner, martik. Angam “Mazouti Gordz”-@ chkaroghatsan kptsnel HHSh-in, ayn Boomerangi effectov yekav ou kpav gordz tkhelou varpet esorva ishkhanavornerin.

    Comment by Hye Azad — March 29, 2007 @ 4:49 pm

  17. IT IS VERY SRPRISING.I ENTERED HERE PERCHANCE ,NEAR AFTER A YEAR AND THERE IS NO ANY POST-SOME CALL IT BLOG?whatever.
    TODAY 19TH FEBRUARY 2008 the elections day RA,was one would think there would be comments here.
    MY COMMENTS? here goes. i wrote that IT WOULD BE A PITY TO HAVE ALL REMAINING NON-ELECTED DISTANCE AWAY FROM EACH OTHER-a imagiable thing within ‘GOGOZVIZ ARMENIANS-let me put it more mildly.I ADVOCATED AND IT IS ON A FEW CANDIDATES WEB PAGE. THAT THESE GOOD PEOPLE GET TOGEHER AROUND A “shrjasyun” meaning a round table and CARRY ON THEIR NATION BUILDING TASKS…INSTEAD OF BECOMING MORE AND MORE ‘khortatsats” ESTRANGED FROM EA OTHER FELLOW.we aspire and presume to be a civilized nation.and let me add i had not really decded for any ONE CANDIDATE, I WAS THINKING NEAR ALL WERE GOOD FELLOWS.TAKE ARTUR BAGDASARYAN, ARTASHES GEGHAMIAN, VAZGUEN MANOUGINA(MORE EXPERIENCED0 THEN VAHAN HOVANESSIAN, LEVON TOO, WHY NOT .then my scheme suggested was, AFTER OR EVEN BEFORE, OR WHILE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGNING WAS ON, MEDITATE AROUND MY SUGGESTION THAT AFTER A FEW FORTNIGHTLY EETINGS AROUND THE “SHRJASYUN” decide and opt ofr the first time in THE HISOTYR OF THE ARMENIAN PEOPE FOR A “S E N A T E’ ,DZERAGOUYD.we need that small nations like Uruguay have ad it for near a century or more.WHY NOT US.especxially now..THINK ABOUT IT AND SUPPORT THE IDEA DO NOT BE CENTRIFUGAL PLEASE…BE UNJEALOUS GET THE “suggestion” and promote it.THUS WE SHALL RE-GROUP ALL THOSE CANDDATES PLUS THOSE WHO DID NOT SET FORTH THERI CANDIDACY AND MANY OTHERS…..
    HAMAHIGAGANI SIRO, GAYTZAG PALANDJIANmy web site isand request to read it .www.ARMENIDAD-WORLDWIDE.org

    Comment by gaytzag palandjian — February 20, 2008 @ 2:57 am

  18. I just did say it.But it is not yet there on this page.Well maybe later on…hopefully,
    gaytzag palandjian

    Comment by gaytzag palandjian — February 20, 2008 @ 2:58 am

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