RFE/RL reports that the Defense Minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, looks likely to become the next Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia following the death of Andranik Markarian last weekend. According to the report, a decision on Sarkisyan’s nomination by the ruling Republican Party looks to be nothing more than a formality when it meets to discuss the matter on Monday.

“Since a political agreement has been reached to leave the post of prime minister to the Republican Party, the April 2 meeting of the HHK council will discuss and decide the HHK candidate for the post,” the party spokesman, Eduard Sharmazanov, told RFE/RL. “In all likelihood, the board will nominate its chairman, Mr. Serzh Sarkisian.”

“At this point, no other candidacies are being considered,” he said.

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Sarkisian was linked with the post even before Markarian’s death. Observers speculated that he will head the Armenian cabinet after the May 12 parliamentary elections as part of his reputed plans to succeed Kocharian as president next year. The HHK’s victory in the polls is essential for the success of those plans.

Meanwhile, considering a huge advertising campaign throughout the country and charitable assistance that some suggests amount to widespread vote buying, the Prosperous Armenia party has somewhat paradoxically declared that it has spent nothing on the election to date. RFE/RL has more.

A political party led by Armenia’s reputedly wealthiest businessman close to President Robert Kocharian claims to have made no expenditures last year, despite opening hundreds of offices and handing out politically motivated aid, it emerged on Friday.

Under Armenian law, all officially registered parties must issue annual financial reports detailing their real incomes and expenditures. Few of them are believed to comply with the requirement.

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According to the chief BHK spokesman, Baghdasar Mherian, the party has spent nothing on that because all of those offices are owned by its members and “people close to the party.” Speaking to RFE/RL, Mherian also claimed that none of the thousands of people working for the party, including himself, gets paid by Tsarukian. “All of them are volunteers,” he said.

The tycoon spent last year millions of dollars on providing agricultural relief, free medical aid and other supposedly public services to scores of impoverished Armenians. The heavily advertised assistance, portrayed as “benevolence” by the BHK but condemned as vote buying by critics, was technically distributed by an obscure charity bearing Tsarukian’s name. However, promotional reports aired by several Armenian TV stations last fall clearly attributed it to the party.

According to some analysts and election observers, these two stories are linked, with many suspecting that Sarkisyan would have been named Prime Minister after the election anyway in order to pave the way for his 2008 presidential bid. Under this scenario, Kocharian would later take over as Prime Minister with the backing of Prosperous Armenia.

The opposition Chorrord Ishkhanutyun newspaper, however, says that forming a new balance of power is where the real election battle lies.

According to “Chorrord Ishkhanutyun,” Markarian’s death did not change the “game scenario in the Armenian political arena.” “In fact, the game scenario is simple and clear to many people. That is, in 2008 Serzh Sarkisian shall become president of Armenia, Robert Kocharian [shall become] prime minister, and they shall continue to jointly govern the country,” writes the paper. “But clearly the two do not trust each other. That is why Robert Kocharian created Prosperous Armenia and is seeking to have a very serious presence in parliament so that Serzh Sarkisian does not fool him after becoming president and, what is more, becomes president solely thanks to him. For his part, Serzh Sarkisian fears that if he does not win the parliamentary elections, Kocharian will not appoint him even as prime minister.”

And if last weekend’s mayoral election in Armavir is anything to go by, that battle has already started.

A political ally of businessman Gagik Tsarukian has asked an Armenian court to annul the official results of a weekend mayoral election in the southern town of Armavir that was controversially won by a candidate of the governing Republican Party (HHK).

Arayik Aghababian, a regional leader of Tsarukian’s Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), was narrowly defeated by Armavir’s incumbent Mayor Ruben Khlghatian in a first-ever election face-off between Armenia’s two largest establishment parties.

His defeat came as a serious setback for the BHK and its top leader, who has spent heavily on Aghababian’s election campaign. It could also have implications for the party’s performance in the May 12 parliamentary elections.

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The HHK and the BHK are seen as the top front runners in the unfolding Armenian parliamentary race. The latter is looking to capitalize on its wealthy leader’s vast financial resources, while the Republicans, led by Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, are expected to make the most of their control of most local governments. The BHK is increasingly viewed by commentators as the new power base of President Robert Kocharian.

So, if before Markarian’s death it was uncertain whether party rivalry would result in any significant clashes between Prosperous Armenia and the Republicans, the likelihood of that happening now might well be greater. There had already been one such clash reported before Markarian’s death in the Erebuni district of Yerevan, and now it remains to be seen whether Kocharian can avert any more.