Laid to rest, but the elections will go on © Onnik Krikorian / EurasiaNet 2007

Writing for EurasiaNet, RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan says that the death of the Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian will have a minimal impact on the parliamentary election campaign. The article also touches upon the question of Markarian’s successor as well as possible post-election tension in Armenia if the outcome of the May vote is falsified.

As Armenians come to grips with the sudden death of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, there are growing indications that his passing will not have a major impact on parliamentary elections scheduled for May 12.

Past experience suggests that that outcome will be decided not so much by the electorate, but by actions taken by the country’s two most powerful men: President Robert Kocharian and Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian. […]

[…]

Serzh Sarkisian is now tipped to be appointed prime minister by Kocharian. Media reports citing government sources have said the appointment will be announced in the coming days. Kocharian’s office and leaders of his loyal majority in parliament, who held urgent consultations on the matter on March 26, have not officially confirmed this yet. Majority leaders have said only that the RPA will continue to control the post of prime minister at least until the parliamentary elections.

[…]

[…] He is expected to heavily rely on the RPA’s control of most central and local government bodies, extensive patronage networks, and a strong presence on election commissions. The use of “administrative resources” proved decisive in the party’s victory in the 2003 parliamentary elections, which were marred by reports of widespread fraud.

[…]

“The RPA will have to resort to much more vote rigging than was planned,” agreed Hayk, another paper that is often critical of the government.

Widespread vote-rigging would increase the likelihood of post-election unrest in Armenia. Markarian played a major role in easing bitter standoffs between the government and the opposition in the past. He was among the few top members of the government camp who seemed reluctant to attack opposition leaders, and who privately communicated with even the bitterest foes of the Kocharian-Sarkisian team. This explains why virtually all prominent opposition members lavished praise on Markarian in the days following his March 25 death from heart failure. As opposition lawmaker Stepan Zakarian put it, “Nobody in Armenia hated him. Both the opposition and pro-government forces maintained good relationships with the prime minister.”

[…]

A lot depends on how Kocharian will behave in this situation. He is believed to be planning to hand over power to Sarkisian and remain in government in some capacity after completing his second and final term in office in less than a year from now. To that end, Kocharian is reportedly sponsoring another election frontrunner, the populist Prosperous Armenia Party of businessman Gagik Tsarukian, both as his new support base and as a counterweight to the RPA. The Armenian press has for months been speculating about a possible electoral clash between the two political groups.

But analyst Yenokian is among those who see little prospect for such confrontation. “Everything continues to be decided by Kocharian and, to a lesser extent, Sarkisian, and a serious conflict between these two individuals is, therefore, extremely unlikely,” he said.

The full article is here.