A major Armenian opposition party, Orinats Yerkir, is fighting a presidential accusation of “treason” following the disclosure that the party’s leader encouraged the European Union to criticize the government. The party claims that the government’s response is part of a “smear campaign” aimed at preventing Orinats Yerkir from making a strong showing in upcoming parliamentary elections.

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For some local commentators, the wire-tapping scandal is an indication that President Robert Kocharian’s administration is worried that Orinats Yerkir will garner strong electoral support. Citing unnamed government sources, the pro-opposition newspaper Zhamanak Yerevan reported on April 28 that the authorities are intent on preventing Orinats Yerkir from winning any parliament seats. That, if true, will only increase the likelihood of the party’s involvement in post-election street protests planned by other, more radical opposition groups.

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The party, which claims to have more than 100,000 members, is now seen as one of the main opposition contenders for the upcoming polls. Its leader’s populist appeal and its well-organized grassroots structures provide much of its strength. Baghdasarian has also aroused more interest among Western governments than any other Armenian opposition politician with his calls for Armenia’s eventual membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as well as his conciliatory line on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and relations with Turkey. In his wire-tapped conversation, Baghdasarian boasted that he gets phone calls from the United States Embassy in Yerevan “every other day.”

The extraordinary treason accusations seem to have had little impact on Orinats Yerkir’s hardcore supporters, however. More than a thousand of them gave Baghdasarian a hero’s welcome as he campaigned in Yerevan’s southern Shengavit District on May 1. “The whole thing has only made us close ranks,” said Asya Sahakian, a young woman attending the campaign rally.

“If Baghdasarian is a traitor, why don’t they arrest him?” asked Azat, a middle-aged unemployed man. “They won’t do that because the whole thing is fabricated.”

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The virtual absence of credible opinion polls in Armenia makes it extremely difficult to gauge the veracity of such statements. But the scandal will most probably change nothing for the expected large number of Armenians who do not plan to vote on May 12. Commented one elderly woman selling cheap clothing in a Shengavit market: “I don’t trust any of the politicians because they all think about their families and fight for government posts, rather than for poor people like us.”

As for the pro-Russian orientation of the party, sure, it’s not going to win them many votes, but as the first comment details, there’s an awful lot of people to try to win over. Still, I don’t expect them to do much more than what is being said of them, along with Heritage — clearing the 5 percent threshold, that is. Interesting to note that Geghamian has reportedly gone back to his pro-Russian ways.

Also, figures for Republicans and Prosperous Armenia are interesting, though, although totally at odds with other surveys as is usual in Armenia. Like they say, regardless of everything, the only poll that matters is the one conducted on election day. Anyway, while I accept your initial argument about the party having a Minister of Education until recently, the Republicans have always usually controlled those levers.

Certainly, since OYP left government that’s been the case, and I’m not sure the Republicans or ARF-D are going to take to kindly to their schoolteachers being members of another party. On the other hand, I’ll admit that I haven’t heard anyone say they’ll vote for OYP yet, but that’s also not a very scientific poll.

This however, doesn’t really reflect their popularity, because elections are not about members of party voting (except for Bargavach), but getting the people, who haven’t oriented yet, to vote for the party. No matter what they say, this scandal will hurt Orinats Yerkir.

Like you have said on this blog before, Onnik, the pro-Russian moods are still dominant among the voters in Armenia, and the spy scandal with the involvement of the British, whom Armenians have never trusted, is definitely going to hurt the party. Which is good… I really openly and intensely dislike Orinats Yerkir!!!

SWING VOTERS MAKE 15 PERCENT IN YEREVAN AND 36 OUTSIDE IT

YEREVAN, APRIL 27, ARMENPRESS: Findings of a latest public opinion poll, designed to reveal voting intentions among Armenians ahead of the May 12 parliamentary elections, say some 56 percent of eligible voters plan a short trip to polling stations on that day to elect members of their next National Assembly.

According to the survey’s results, conducted by Sociometer pollster center, 13 percent of Armenians are ready to support the governing Republican Party, almost three times less than it expects to garner in next month’s parliamentary elections.

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The Prospers Armenia party of a millionaire businessmen Gagik Tsarukian, who is reputed as the wealthiest Armenian, may rely on 11 percent voter support.

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Adibekian, frequently criticized by opposition leaders for ‘executing paid orders’, said the number of voters ready to cast ballots for the Orinats Yerkir party of ex-parliament chairman Arthur Baghdasarian has grown and those of the opposition National Unity has dwindled.

“Since the number of voters ready to support the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties does not, as matter of fact, change, we can suppose that the Orinats Yerkir, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the National Unity and the Zharangutyun (Heritage) will be fighting to win over the undecided segment of voters,” he concluded.

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Also some 42 percent of respondents believe that the May 12 polls will be marred with as much election fraud as the previous ones in 2003; 20 percent think they will be more transparent and fairer and only 8 believe they will actually meet international standards.