Nikol Pashinian (Impeachment), Aram Karapetian (New Times), and Aram Sarkisian (Republic), Matenadaran, Yerevan Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia for EurasiaNet 2007

With today marking the official end of campaigning for Saturday’s parliamentary election this is probably the last Parliamentary Election Monitor until the close of voting the same day. Now that the pre-election stage of events is pretty much over, it will be interesting to review this post on Sunday when the radical opposition is expected to take to the streets once more. What remains to be seen is whether or not other more moderate opposition parties that actually bothered to campaign join them or not. That, of course, depends on the conduct of the vote itself.

So, without further ado, let’s get down to business and look at the news as reported by RFE/RL. As usual, the English-language section of their site has done a pretty good job on reporting on the election since the beginning of the year when things really started to get going. As I’ve said before on this blog, many of the major players in civil society and the alternative media became too politicized and actually took sides with the radical opposition in particular. On the other hand, perhaps that’s at least sign of NGOs actually participating in elections for a change, and there were some that remained impartial.

Anyway, today’s remarks by the President on the type of parliament he would like to see elected might sound a little ominous to some.

President Robert Kocharian expressed hope late Thursday that Armenians will hand political parties loyal to him a comfortable majority in the parliament that will be elected on Saturday.

Kocharian predicted that none of them will win an absolute majority of seats in the next National Assembly. He indicated his belief that that Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian’s Republican Party (HHK) will win a plurality of votes in the elections.

“It is extremely important that the new parliament and the president be able to cooperate,” he told Armenia’s leading TV stations in an interview. “If there is a confrontation between these two state institutions, it is the people that will suffer.”

[…]

Kocharian expressed hope that two other major pro-presidential parties, Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, will also have a “serious presence” in the 131-seat legislature. He was also hopeful that only the “constructive” segment of the Armenian opposition will win parliament seats, hitting out at more radical groups opposed to his rule.

Interestingly, although yesterday’s clash between police and supporters of the Impeachment, Republic and New Times parties seems to have gotten many radical oppositionists excited about the possibility of overthrowing the government regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s vote, I’m glad to say that at least there are more moderate voices among those opposed to the government. RFE/RL reports on the final day of campaigning which takes a look at two opposition parties that did actually bother to take the election seriously — Orinats Yerkir and Heritage.

Analysts believe that Orinats Yerkir, another major opposition party led by former parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, should have no problem retaining its presence in the National Assembly, having conducted a far more lively and dynamic campaign. Baghdasarian summed up its results at a news conference on Thursday. He also complained about what he called unequal campaigning opportunities that were put in place for the pro-government and opposition forces.

[…]

“If the elections are held properly we will welcome them. If the elections are bad, we will revolt and struggle for people’s rights,” he warned.

But Baghdasarian would not specify whether Orinats Yerkir is ready to join other, more radical opposition groups that are already gearing up for post-election protests. “If the Armenian elections are rigged, Orinats Yerkir and myself will be at the forefront of the struggle. Anyone can join us in struggling against injustice,” he said.

Another opposition heavyweight, Raffi Hovannisian, concluded the first-ever election campaign of his Zharangutyun (Heritage) party with an indoor meeting attended by hundreds of party activists and supporters. He again claimed that Heritage will win the elections.

The audience burst into “Yes” chants when asked by Hovannisian, “Are we the masters of our national heritage? Are we the masters of our republic?”

Back to the clash between the radical opposition and police. Firstly, it is worth pointing out that from day one of the campaign none of the three parties involved showed any interest at all in campaigning for a democratic election. Indeed, it was obvious that “revolution” was their only goal, and the first rally by the Republic party made no secret of that. At yesterday’s event at the Matenadaran when the three radical opposition leaders did everything they could to get the crowd of several thousand supporters to fever pitch I even commented to other journalists that a clash was inevitable if they marched.

Later, from witnessing some of the events as they happened outside the headquarters of the National Security Service (NSS) it appeared as though Impeachment, Republic and New Times got exactly what they wanted. I didn’t see the start of the clash as I was several meters ahead of where violence broke out, but from seeing the delayed response of more than a dozen Red Berets who were next to me at the time, I assumed that opposition supporters rushed at the entrance of the NSS building. The official police reaction to last night’s events seems to go with this theory.

Armenian authorities threatened on Thursday to prosecute organizers of the previous night’s opposition demonstration in Yerevan that was marred by violent clashes between some of its participants and security forces and heightened political tension ahead of Saturday’s parliamentary elections.

The violence broke out when thousands of supporters of Armenia’s most radical opposition groups approached the Yerevan headquarters of the National Security Service (NSS) to demand the release of a prominent opposition politician arrested by the former KGB earlier this week. Eyewitnesses said riot police used batons and tear gas to keep the crowd from moving too close to the NSS building and its basement jail whether the politician, Aleksandr Arzumanian, is being kept. Several opposition activists and police officers were reportedly injured in the melee that underscored the potential for post-election unrest in the country.

[…]

The deputy chief of the Armenian police, Major-General Ararat Mahtesian, charged the next morning that the clashes were deliberately instigated by radical opposition leaders and Pashinian in particular. “Several participants led by Nikol Pashinian provoked an incident with police, dashed to the National Security Service entrance, and when police tried to stop their movement, scuffles broke out,” he told a news conference.

Nevertheless, and assuming this was the case, the authorities need to learn one important lesson after last night. That is, it is unlikely that the three radical opposition groups have enough of a following in a deeply apathetic and cynical society fed up with all the political parties, and so any heavy-handed response to protests after the 12 May vote, regardless of any provocation, will backfire. The radical opposition also need to understand that, contrary to what they might think, the international community favors calls for peaceful and democratic change — not running street battles.

This is especially true when you consider that you can hardly say that Impeachment has the support of most of the population behind them. Their last two rallies may have been impressive, but the support base for parties such as Prosperous Armenia seems significantly larger. Again, from following this campaign since before it even officially started, it was obvious that Aylentrank/Impeachment were looking for a fight as well. Of course, nothing can justify the use of excessive force by the police whose only job is to uphold the law, and the moderate opposition are already stating the same thing.

The police actions were also condemned on Thursday by other, more moderate opposition parties. “I have repeatedly said that beatings, intimidations are condemnable,” said Artur Baghdasarian, the leader of the Orinats Yerkir Party.

Baghdasarian was particularly concerned about a newspaper report which claimed that special police units from Nagorno-Karabakh were also involved in the violence. “I find that unacceptable,” he said.

“We call on everyone and the Armenian authorities in the first instance to refrain from further attempts to resort to mass repressions,” said Vartan Khachatrian of the Zharangutyun party. He said Zharangutyun would respond to such attempts with unspecified actions “commensurate with the extent of repression.”

Interestingly, many of those leading the Impeachment bloc are former supporters of the first President of the Republic of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian. Other opposition politicians now working with the bloc are considered to be sympathetic to the deeply unpopular ex-leader. Moreover, there are also various organizations within civil society that support the bloc because they too have seen the election not as a democratic vote, but rather as an attempt to attack and overthrow the government.

Incidentally, last night’s march was apparently illegal and was not sanctioned by the Yerevan Mayor’s Office, despite reports to the contrary. Moreover, the march on the NSS building was meant to be in support of Alexander Arzoumanian, the former Foreign Minister under Ter Petrosian, who was detained earlier this week. The NSS allege that Arzoumanian was in receipt of money wired to him from Russia with the sole aim of financing radical revolutionary actions after Saturday’s vote.

RFE/RL reports that the radical opposition failed in their efforts to secure his release. Many would rhetorically ask what did they expect?

Aleksandr Arzumanian, a former foreign minister striving for regime change in Armenia, was remanded in pre-trial custody on Thursday after being formally charged with politically motivated money laundering.

A court in Yerevan allowed the National Security Service (NSS) to keep Arzumanian in detention for two months as part of an ongoing criminal investigation into the alleged financing of his Civil Resistance Movement by a fugitive Russian-Armenian businessman. The ruling came after a brief hearing held behind the closed doors.

Arzumanian was arrested on Monday two days after NSS officers searched his Yerevan apartment and confiscated $55,4000 kept there. They also confiscated a comparable amount of cash from the Yerevan apartment of Vahan Shirkhanian, another movement leader and former government minister.

Well, anyway, I’ve waited this long before posting about last night’s events to get more information as I’m not sure what exactly happened other than it seemed inevitable there would be a clash during the march. Thankfully, in order to add another take on what happened, EurasiaNet has just published an article on the Impeachment/Republic/New Times demonstration and march accompanied by photographs from myself and Dean Cox.

Police and opposition protestors clashed on May 9 in downtown Yerevan amidst a protest against what activists claim is a government plan to rig Armenia’s parliamentary vote. The brawl, the first such well-publicized incident of the campaign, came just over a day before official campaigning for the May 12 election ends.

The demonstration was the second joint rally taken by the Republic and New Times Parties and Impeachment election bloc. An initial gathering was held by the recently assembled coalition in Yerevan on May 3. Republic Party leader Aram Sarkisian has pledged. That the group will hold another demonstration on May 13 “to prove that the master of this country is the people” if the parliamentary vote is not “fair,”

Opposition supporters had marched to the National Security Service headquarters in Yerevan to protest the recent arrest of opposition activist and former Foreign Minister Alexander Arzumanian for alleged money laundering as well as what they describe as an atmosphere of fear on the eve of the May 12 parliamentary elections.

Numbers for the size of the protest vary widely – and wildly. Organizers claim more than 35,000 people took part in the rally; some local observers estimate 20,000, while police say 4,000. Lights on the street were switched off, however, immediately after the protestors’ arrival in front of the NSS.

[…]

A gaggle of uniformed police gathered at the bottom of the street, had initially looked on with disinterest or talked among themselves. As protestors approached the NSS, Armenia’s former KGB, that mood changed.

[…]

In a May 10 statement, officials put blame for the violence on protestors, who, they implied, were spoiling for a fight. Rally participants’ behavior, police said, was “cynical and disrespectful.”

A subsequent call to protestors by newspaper editor Nikol Pashinian, one of the leaders of the Impeachment bloc, will no doubt do little to dispel such an impression: “[A]fter all these things, is there still anybody, who doubts that we will win?” he cried to protestors in nearby Liberty Square after the clash.

That question, and whether protestors will feel inclined to join demonstrations against perceived vote rigging, remains unanswered, though. In 2004, opposition demonstrations against the 2003 presidential elections were sparsely attended and brutally put down.

Independent political analyst David Petrosian contends that the Republic Party-New Times-Impeachment trio is largely united — for now at least — in their campaign. Other opposition parties could conceivably join a post-election rally, he said, though noted that a forecast of heavy rain for May 13 could reduce attendance.

One cab driver approaching the Manuscript Museum demonstration took a skeptical view: “There’s going to be politics there,” he warned with a laugh. “Who wants that?”

Personally speaking, after observing the campaign so far, I find it difficult to imagine that the radical opposition can achieve regime change in Armenia without the support of other more moderate political groups. Of course, then the perpetual problem of divisions will emerge with some forces favoring peaceful protest, while others think only of more radical action. Of course, we’ll know soon enough, but past experience in other countries has shown that peaceful protests with the support of a cross section of society behind them are necessary.

Radical Opposition Rally, Matenadaran, Yerevan Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia for EurasiaNet 2007

In terms of the reaction of bloggers to the clash last night, the Armenian Blog Review has extensive coverage and translations of posts from all sides. In particular it posts video footage of the rumble while one of Impeachment’s own activists posts photographs of events. Unfortunately, I didn’t take my flash with me last night and as I still use film had to shoot 400 asa b/w film and underexpose it by 2-3 stops in order to catch anything. Nevertheless, I’m posting some images below.

National Security Service (NSS), Yerevan Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007