Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

RFE/RL reports that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) has strongly criticized the speech made by former president Levon Ter Petrosian last week. The party probably has more grounds than most to speak out against the first president given that they were banned for part of his rule with many of their senior leaders and activists imprisoned.

Hrant Markarian, the de facto head of the nationalist party’s worldwide governing body, also insisted that Ter-Petrosian stands no chance of winning next year’s presidential election. He said Armenians are unhappy with their current and former rulers and only trust third forces like Dashnaktsutyun.

[…]

“I very much want Levon Ter-Petrosian to stand in the elections,” Markarian told RFE/RL in an interview. “If the past 17 years have not been enough to make him a realist, then let him run and find his real place in this society.”

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Markarian stressed that while his party agrees that the Armenian government’s “policy of economic monopolization has reached its climax” it believes that the root causes of this and other fundamental problems facing the country date back to Ter-Petrosian’s 1991-1998 presidency. “That speech could have been somewhat convincing if he had started it by evaluating his years [in power,]” he said.

Dashnaktsutyun was bitterly opposed to Ter-Petrosian throughout that period, resenting his liberal economic policies and what it saw as a soft line on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and relations with Turkey. Ter-Petrosian controversially banned the party in 1994, accusing it violating Armenia’s laws and running a secret death squad. The ban was lifted shortly after his dramatic resignation in 1998. Dashnaktsutyun has since been among the most loyal allies of his successor, Robert Kocharian.

Markarian, who was among Dashnaktsutyun leaders jailed by the Ter-Petrosian administration, claimed that the ex-president suggested no remedies to right the wrongs mentioned in his speech. “His speech contained [words like] destroy, break up, eliminate,” he said. “But there was nothing on what to create.”

“Only a person detached from reality for ten years could make such a speech. You can’t change anything in this country by means of extremism,” he added.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008 Blog.

Writing for the Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor, RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan says that Armenia’s trade with Russia has increased dramatically this year. The article follows more and more examples of Russian ownership and management of key economic assets in Armenia.

According to the most recent data posted by Armenia’s National Statistical Service (NSS) on its website, www.armstat.am, the volume of bilateral trade totaled $404 million in January-August 2007, up from $250 million registered during the same period last year. Much of the gain resulted from an almost 100% surge in Armenian exports to Russia, most of them alcoholic beverages and prepared foodstuffs. Even so, Armenian imports of Russian commodities and goods (notably natural gas) continued to account for most of the bilateral commercial exchange, rising by 50% to about $280 million.

Officials in Moscow and Yerevan have welcomed the growing commercial ties between their countries, which they say will reach a new high of $700 million in the full year 2007. Speaking after talks in Moscow on September 25, the Russian and Armenian prime ministers said they would try to ensure that Russian-Armenian trade hits $1 billion next year (Armenian Public Television, September 25). Armenian Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian instructed his ministers to closely work with their Russian counterparts to meet this target (Statement by the Armenian government, September 27). Nikolai Ryzhkov, a Russian lawmaker co-chairing a Russian-Armenian inter-parliamentary commission, came up with a more conservative estimate during a mid-October visit to Yerevan, predicting bilateral trade will likely pass $1 billion mark only in 2009 (Interfax, October 19).

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Transitions Online’s Steady State reports that Mr. Eldar Namazov, a possible candidate in next year’s presidential election in Azerbaijan and the former head of the administration under Heydar Aliyev, has accused the Azeri government of “selling out the occupied lands.” By this, of course, he means Nagorno Karabakh and the surrounding territories currently under Armenian control.

However, what was most interesting about the speech which Namazov gaveis that he accused the Azerbaijani authorities of supporting President Robert Kocharian in Armenia when they should be doing all they can to ensure the return of his predecessor, Levon Ter Petrosian. The blog implies that a concessionary peace deal which “favours Azerbaijan” is more likely with the first president in power again.

In Armenia, Mr. Petrossian is a candidate with democratic credentials, who is supported both by US and the EU. He also champions the “step by step” approach to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution, which benefits the Azeri side more than the Armenian. It could be argued that the reason why Petrossian was overthrown in 1998 is precisely his approach to the conflict resolution.

Now USA pressures the current President Kocharian through its open support to the candidate Petrossian and through messages that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict should be resolved as soon as possible.

In fact, Azerbaijan will win more if Petrossian succeeds in elections, simply because he is for the “step by step” peace talks. HOWEVER, notes Mr. Namazov quite correctly, due to certain reasons, the Azeri media backs the Kocharian administration and portrays the Petrossian as the initiator of the war over Nagorno Karabakh.

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From my own research work I can surely state that Mr. Petrossian was completely against the war and was the main broker of all cease-fire agreements. The question arises: why does the Azeri government support Kocharian and not Petrossian?

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It always happens when an opposition rally is held. Local journalists start to play games with numbers depending on their political affiliations and sympathies. So, despite the consensus of opinion from independent observers and foreign wire services present at Friday’s opposition rally that there was anywhere between 10-15,000 people in attendance, it’s interesting to note how different media outlets and bloggers are reporting the rally during which Levon Ter Petrosian declared he would run again for office.

Here’s a breakdown:

Regnum News Agency: 10,000
PanArmenian.Net: 10,000
The Armenian Observer: Around 10,000
The Armenian Patchwork: Around 10,000
Associated Press (AP): More than 10,000
Oneworld Multimedia: 10-13,000
Internews: 10-15,000
Agence France-Presse (AFP): Up to 15,000

EurasiaNet: About 20,000
Radio Free Europe: More than 20,000
168 Zham: More than 20,000
A1 Plus: 35-40,000 (!)
Noyan Tapan: 30-50,000 (!!)
Haykakan Zhamanak: 60,000 (!!!)

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A1 Plus reports that the Armenian handball team was defeated by its Azerbaijani opponents 41 points to 15 in Tbilisi. However, that’s not what is interesting about this story. Instead, after Armenian wrestlers recently competed in Baku, it’s encouraging to see that both sides are playing against each other in some sporting competitions at least. Of course, there was one recent notable exception.

Polling Station, Arabkir, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007

While Mediamax reports that the United States has offered Armenia technical assistance for next year’s election which some in diplomatic circles believe will be held on 17 February, other concerns are being raised ahead of the vote. In the recent parliamentary election, U.S. technical assistance included the provision of computers to the Central Election Commission (CEC) and training for CEC, TEC and PEC members through IFES.

Anyway, here’s how Mediamax reported news of the offer extended to the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, on his visit to to the U.S. last week.

During a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan on Tuesday [23 October] in Washington, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed on behalf of the US government readiness in case of necessity to assist the Armenian authorities in the solution of technical problems while organizing the presidential elections of 2008.

However, in related news, RFE/RL reports that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) whose ODIHR office monitors elections is already raising concerns about new restrictions on the size of such missions suggested by Russia, Belarus and four Central Asian states on their activity. As Armenia is reported to support the initiative, the news must ring some alarm bells among opposition and pro-democracy activists.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008 Blog.

Meeting up with Tom de Waal in Yerevan earlier this month, we joked that journalists should now avoid the cliché term “window of opportunity” when it comes to continuing peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Well, this news item from RFE/RL avoids the phrase, but once again refers to perhaps unrealistic hopes that a framework peace agreement can be signed before next year’s presidential election i.e within the next four months.

International mediators said they still hope to broker a framework peace accord on Nagorno-Karabakh before the presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan as they began yet another round of regional shuttle diplomacy on Wednesday.

The chief U.S. Karabakh negotiator, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, insisted that the conflicting parties are “very close” to fully agreeing on the basic principles of a Karabakh settlement proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group.

President Robert Kocharian said earlier this month that despite substantial progress made in Armenian-Azerbaijan peace talks, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved before the Armenian and Azerbaijani elections.

“Unlikely means less than 50 percent,” Bryza told RFE/RL before he and the Minsk Group’s French and Russian co-chairs went into talks with Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian. “It can mean 49 percent, 48 percent, which is maybe not much different than ‘likely.’”

[…]

“Whether the agreement comes before the elections or shortly after, we are, as we say in American English, in the ballpark and it’s time to put the ball in the net,” he said.

Baku and Yerevan are understood to have already accepted the main points of the Minsk Group’s existing peace plan. It calls for a gradual resolution of the conflict would enable Karabakh’s predominantly Armenian population to decide the disputed region’s status in a referendum years after the liberation of surrounding Azerbaijani territories. Diplomatic sources privy to the negotiating process say the parties still disagree on practical modalities of the proposed referendum as well as the timetable for Armenian withdrawal from those territories.

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Aram Sarkisian and Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

As expected, the former president of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, has announced that he will run in next year’s presidential election. The topic of much speculation in the media as well as among the public, Ter Petrosian made the announcement at an opposition rally staged in Yerevan’s Liberty Square in front of a crowd estimated to be between 10-15,000 people with the consensus of opinion from most journalists and analysts reckoning on 10-13,000.

Of course, pro-Ter Petrosian outlets such as A1 Plus put the figure at a totally unrealistic 35-40,000 while even Radio Free Europe appears to over-estimate the number by putting it at “more than 20,000.” Bloggers such as Observer put the number at “around 10,000,” while the Associated Press reports “up to 15,000.” Whatever the figure, however, the crowd was respectable for an opposition rally, and not least for one that marked the return of a man who until recently many considered disgraced and unpopular.

AP focuses on what a Ter Petrosian presidency might mean for Armenia. In particular, this relates to Armenia’s relations with Turkey and resolution of the long-standing and still unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan over the mainly Armenian-inhabited territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

If successful, his return to office could signal a major shift in Armenia’s fraught relations with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Ter-Petrosian, 62, is an advocate of compromise with the two countries, which have closed their borders and imposed economic embargoes over Armenia’s support for the breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorny Karabakh.

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Armenia needed to end its regional isolation by normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, he said.

“Until we have resolved the questions of the blockade of Armenia, relations with our neighbours and Karabakh, Armenia cannot develop and strengthen,” he said.

“As a result of the criminal policies of the current government, Azerbaijan has only toughened its position and will not seek compromise,” he added.

[…]

Analysts say Ter-Petrosian is perhaps the only Armenian politician with the clout and experience to mount a challenge to the current leadership.

The full post accompanied by many photographs is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008 Blog.

Levon Ter Petrosian, Opposition Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

In what can be considered one of the most important political developments in the short 16-year history of Armenia as an independent former-Soviet republic, the country’s first president, Levon Ter Petrosian, announced his intention to run again for office in the presidential election to be held early next year. Ter Petrosian had been forced to resign in 1998 by his successor and other high-level officials apparently over what was then considered a concessionary peace deal to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh.

What is most significant about Ter Petrosian’s political comeback is that had anyone asked most Armenians about the former president’s return as recently as two months ago, many would consider that it was unlikely. Now, a day after an opposition rally during which Ter Petrosian announced his candidacy, it is a reality. However, while various media outlets sympathetic towards the former president estimated the crowd at the rally to be between 20-40,000, bloggers such as Observer reckoned it was more like 10,000.

Transitions Online’s The Armenian Patchwork also put the number at around 10,000, and in a post containing many photographs explains why.

The hope of the people gathered on Freedom Square on 26 October to cheer for Levon Ter-Petrosyan came true as he announced that he will run for presidency again in 2008. The joint rally of oppositional leaders Aram Sargsyan, Stepan Demirchyan and first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan gathered around 10,000 people, enough to cover the whole square. A simultaneous concert half and hour away from the Freedom Square was a contrast to this event.

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Despite the number of people present I could hardly see any youth among the crowd, and here is where they were. At the same when the rally began, at 1700, the Voske Ashun (Golden Autumn) concert began in the Vazgen Sargsyan stadium, which is said to have been organized by the ruling Republican Party.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

A friend has just forwarded me a warning from the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan sent out to all its citizens resident or working in the country. The advisory warns U.S. citizens to avoid the area around the Yerevan Opera because of traffic concerns and elements of “unpredictability and possible violence.”

Please be advised that today, Friday, October 26, 2007, a public rally is scheduled to take place at Opera Square/Freedom Square at approximately 1700 hours. It is estimated that approximately 7,000 to 8,000 demonstrators may attend. As in any large public gathering, there is an element of unpredictability and possible violence. It is expected that there will be severe traffic congestion and road closures.

The U.S. Embassy Yerevan strongly encourages that all U.S. citizens avoid the area. If for any reason you are in the area, please exercise extreme caution, avoid large groups, and be aware of your surroundings at all times.

The U.S. Embassy in Yerevan is located at 1 American Avenue, Yerevan 375082 Armenia. The Embassy telephone number is (+374-10) 46-47-00, fax: (+374 10) 46-47-42, web site: www.usa.am

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Reuters reports the expected. The Armenian Genocide Bill due to be put before the U.S. Congress next month has been suspended at the request of its co-sponsors. Well, they say “suspended,” but it’s unlikely that the situation with Iraq or Turkey is going to change anytime soon.

The sponsors conveyed their decision in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, after support for the controversial resolution support faltered in the face of vehement protests from NATO ally Turkey.

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The sponsors asked Pelosi not to schedule a vote “at this time,” but said they would continue to work for “consideration sometime later this year, or in 2008.”

Right, but a word of advice. Don’t hold your breath.