Armenian Genocide Resolution Support Wanes
2004 Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Nominee, Howard Dean, plants a tree at the Armenian Genocide Memorial, Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2005
Via Blogian, the New York Times reports that Democratic party support for a resolution recognizing the Armenian Genocide is waning. According to the paper, a dozen lawmakers have withdrawn their support for the resolution which is expected to be voted on in the U.S. Congress next month. The Armenian lobby shouldn’t be surprised, however. This is what always happens whenever such a resolution gets through. American national security concerns and U.S.-Turkish relations are always the reason and that’s unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
Until today, the resolution appeared to be on a path to House passage, with strong support from the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi of California. It was approved last week by the House Foreign Affairs Committee. But this evening, a group of group of senior House Democrats had made it known they were planning to ask the leadership to drop plans for a vote on the measure.
“Turkey obviously feels they are getting poked in the eye over something that happened a century ago, and maybe this isn’t a good time to be doing that,” said Representative Allen Boyd, a Florida Democrat who dropped his sponsorship of the resolution Monday night. .
Others who took the same action said that while they deplored the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire, beginning in 1915, the modern-day consequences in the Middle East could not be overlooked.
“We simply cannot allow the grievances of the past — as real as they may be — to in any way derail our efforts to prevent further atrocities for future history books,” said Representative Wally Herger, Republican of California.
“I think it is a good resolution and horrible timing,” said Representative Mike Ross, Democrat of Arkansas.
The Turkish government has lobbied heavily against the resolution, which is nonbinding and largely symbolic. But lawmakers attributed the erosion in support mainly to fears about a potential Turkish decision to deny American access to critical military facilities in that nation and its threat to move forces into northern Iraq to attack Kurdish rebels.
“This vote came face to face with the reality on the ground in that region of the world,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and an opponent of the resolution.
[…]
The biggest fear, several former officials said, is that Turkish forces could push past the border and head for Kirkuk, forcing Iraq to respond and presenting the United States with mediating between two allies and a decision about whether to commit American troops. Such a crisis could also draw in Iran, which has also had growing problems with Kurdish groups crossing into its territory from Iraq.
Regarding concerns of Iranian involvement, Amerikan Turk reports that the Turkish military is already training its Iranian counterpart in counter-insurgency against Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) guerillas. The group is believed to have close ties with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighting a separatist war in Turkey’s south east. Democracy Now reported earlier this year that Kurdish rebels were receiving assistance from the United States in staging attacks inside Iran.
Caucaz carried a report on the PJAK resistance in Iran in 2005.
As usual, while most of those supporting or even opposing the Armenian Genocide Resolution soon to be up before Congress, it is the larger picture in Iraq and Iran that will likely influence what happens next. If the pressure for representatives to drop their support for the resolution continues, I wonder, will it even make the congressional floor? Two Democratic party lawmakers have already urged Speaker Pelosi to drop the resolution, and more will likely follow.
However, one supposes that Pelosi’s decision will ultimately depend on the real motivation for her interest in the Armenian Genocide resolution in the first place. And on that, the jury is still out.
Update:
Some reaction is starting to filter out in the blogosphere. So far, few seem startled by the news and it has to be said, even the Diaspora lobby groups are used to this by now and I don’t suppose it will take anyone else by surprise.
First up is Cribs and Rantings.
It was a grand and appropriate gesture, befitting statesmen, by the US House of Representatives to officially dub the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks as “genocide”. The US need not have made the first move on this, but it did it in line with its assumed role as a global leader, as a beacon of freedom to the rest of the world.
Unfortunately, reality hit the House representatives, real hard. It is not the truth that prevails, even if it is a genocide. Usually it are the hard, cynical ground realities that win.
Turkey understood that well when it warned the US that its special relationship with Turkey was at stake if the resolution was passed. That would mean loss of Turkish logistical support for the US war in Iraq. That could also mean that Turkey would go ahead, despite pleas for restraint from the US, and invade Iraq to flush out its Kurd rebels.
Worried about antagonizing Turkish leaders, House members from both parties have begun to withdraw their support from a resolution backed by the Democratic leadership that would condemn as genocide the mass killings of Armenians nearly a century ago, reports The New York Times.
[…]
Turkey has promised to turn over documents and support a conference to determine whether there was a genocide of Armenians. That conference would take years to convene, and maybe years to arrive at any conclusion. But it may now provide the House of Representatives a fig-leaf of an excuse to get out of the embarrassment their idealism got them into.
More as of when.
They stood by when a frat-boy, corporate fascist took over their whole country, you think they are going to do anything about the Armenian Holocaust?
Comment by Armen Filadelfiatsi — October 17, 2007 @ 4:56 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1354608620071017?sp=true
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1621143820071016?sp=true
Comment by Onnik — October 17, 2007 @ 6:24 pm
Last night in a CNN report a former Turkish general admitted that it is too late for Turkish troops to cross over into Iraq since winter is only a few weeks away, which means the ground will freeze and snow will be falling everywhere in that mountainous area, where all the Kurdish “rebels” are hiding. He suggested that Turkish military action in northern Iraq now would be an utter fiasco, and that realistically the military would have to wait until springtime to do anything “destabilizing.”
In any case, although Turkey is still wavering on engaging military action it will choose to do so with or without an Armenian genocide resolution on the House floor, so I don’t understand the logic in relating the two by the media and politicians. The resolution is not to be voted on at least until December, and if the Turks decide to make their move into Iraq they would have already done so by then.
Furthermore, I really believe that Turkey cannot stop the US from using its military base in Incirlik. I don’t understand why the US goverment is taking these threats seriously. The US has been calling the shots in that region for years, and the US’ bailing-out of Turkey every time their economy tanks cannot be ignored. Turkey owes the US lots of favors. Passing a symbolic Armenian genocide recognition resolution will not be a deterrent to the US’s resolve in further destabilizing Iraq with Turkey’s continued assistance.
Comment by Christian — October 18, 2007 @ 10:17 am
A Turkish General says that there is still a “window of opportunity” for an incursion before the winter sets in and Turkey already has a troop buildup on the border with Iraq. Otherwise, they can just use air power and strike the PKK with missiles or helicopter gunships which is probably the easiest option regardless of the weather. Anyway, the U.S. is taking Turkish threats seriously so I suppose they know something we don’t.
Comment by Onnik — October 18, 2007 @ 2:41 pm
Comment by Onnik — October 18, 2007 @ 8:05 pm