It should come as no surprise, especially considering the political fallout from the adoption last week of HR 106, that U.S. Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reported to be backtracking from the resolution that would recognize the Armenian Genocide. This always happens, cynics would argue, and The Financial Times reports that now is no different.

As recently as the weekend, Ms Pelosi said she planned to take the bill, denouncing mass killings of Armenians during the Ottoman Empire as genocide, to the full House this year.

Ms Pelosi is a longstanding backer of the measure, despite the anger it has caused in Turkey.

But, on Wednesday, facing increasing criticism and high-profile defections from among the bill’s supporters, she toned down her commitment to take it to a full House vote. “Whether it will come up or not and what the action will be remains to be seen,” she said.

This week declared support for the bill fell below the level needed for House approval – at least 10 members of Congress withdrew their backing, in addition to several others who peeled off earlier this year. As of Wednesday, the bill had 215 sponsors or co-sponsors in the 435-member House.

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The legislation, backed by the House’s foreign affairs committee last week, has sparked concerns that US influence on Ankara could be weakened at a time when the Turkish government is contemplating a large military incursion into northern Iraq, to Washington’s dismay. The US military is also alarmed that the Turkish government could reduce logistical support for its troops in Iraq.

“Congress has more important work to do than antagonising a democratic ally in the Muslim world, especially one that’s providing vital support for our military every day,” said President George W. Bush yesterday. after having made a phone call to Ms Pelosi on the issue the day before.

Meanwhile, one of the comments on an entry posted on The Armenian Observer points readers to a very interesting article on the Armenian Genocide and HR106 in Salon magazine. In particular, the opinions of Yektan Turkyilmaz and Taner Akcam, Turkish historians who recognize that the Armenian Genocide took place, are very interesting indeed.

Most Turkish academics toe the official line on the horrific events of 1915. But even some of those who accept that a genocide took place believe that passing the bill now is a bad idea. Yektan Turkyilmaz, a graduate student at Duke University, has the distinction of having been arrested by the Armenian KGB because his research led them to assume he was a Turkish spy. In fact, he is part of a new generation of Turkish scholars who reject their country’s propaganda about what happened to the Armenians. In a phone interview from Duke, Turkyilmaz said, “This bill strengthens the hand of the extremists in Turkey, the xenophobes, the extreme nationalists. Yes, Turkish society has to face its past, to prevent any sort of repetition in the future. If I believed that this bill would force the Turkish government to acknowledge the truth, I would support it. But it won’t.”

For his part, “A Shameful Act” author Taner Akcam acknowledges the force of these pragmatic arguments — but rejects them.

“Look, we can make a list of reasons why this resolution will make matters worse,” Akcam said in a phone interview from his office at the University of Minnesota. “First, it explicitly politicizes the problem. Second, it makes a historic problem a diplomatic fight between the United States and Turkey. Third, it increases the aggressive attacks of the Turkish government against those inside and outside the country. Fourth, it increases the animosity and hatred against Armenians generally in Turkey. Fifth, it can never solve the problem. It aggravates the problem.

“OK, so we’ve made this list,” Akcam went on. “But what is the answer? Whoever is against the resolution must show an alternative to the Armenian people. Unless you give an alternative policy, saying ‘Shut up and stop’ is not a policy. The Armenians don’t have any options. As long Turkey criminalizes the past, as long as Turkey kills journalists, as long as Turkey drags its intellectuals from court to court, as long as Turkey punishes the people who use the G-word, as long as Turkey doesn’t have any diplomatic relations with Armenia, as long as Turkey threatens everybody in the world who opens the topic of historical wrongdoing, it is the legitimate right of a victim group to make its voice heard.”

Akcam dismisses the argument that the time was not yet ripe for the resolution. “You can use the timing argument forever and ever. Who will decide when the timing is right?”

But Akcam argues that a long-term solution requires much more than a U.S. resolution. He says two steps are necessary: Turkey and Armenia must establish normal relations, and Turks must learn that confronting their history does not threaten their Turkish identity, but strengthens it. This means that Turks should look at the conflict not as a zero-sum game in which any Armenian gain is a Turkish loss, but as a necessary part of the process of becoming a democratic nation. It’s an approach to resolving bitter historical grievances called “transitional justice,” and it has been effective in helping resolve historical grievances between Germany and the Czech Republic, within South Africa and in other places.

The Armenians, too, need to rethink their approach, Akcam said. In the new paradigm, the Armenian diaspora would present its policy not as being totally against Turkey, but for a new democratic Turkey. “Until now this was a conventional war between Turkey and Armenian diaspora, and congressional resolutions were the effective weapon in this conventional war,” Akcam said. “What I’m saying is we should stop thinking in these conventional ways.”

Well, given how Armenian Genocide resolutions always end up in the United States, perhaps both Turkyilmaz and Akcam make some important points. However, if this resolution shares the same fate as those that have preceded it, will the Armenian lobby in the United States learn from their mistake and push for improving Armenian-Turkish relations? One doubts it, but it’s all food for thought anyway.

Of course, this also presupposes that House Resolution 106 is now well and truly dead. However, with pressure on Pelosi and the Democratic party increasing by the day, including from inside America itself, one doubts that the resolution will make it through to the floor. Let’s see, but the Associated Press reports that a senior Democrat believes that the resolution would be defeated if put to a vote.

WASHINGTON - Rep. John Murtha, a prominent Democrat, said Wednesday that his party’s leadership underestimated opposition to a resolution on Armenian genocide and predicted that such a vote would easily fail.

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Murtha is considered an influential voice among Democrats on military affairs. Chairman of the panel that oversees defense spending, Murtha helped House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lead anti-war efforts this year.

“If it came to the floor, it would not pass,” with some 55 to 60 Democrats opposing the measure, Murtha told reporters. As of Thursday, House Democrats will hold a 233-200 majority.

Pelosi, D-Calif., is expected to hold off on a vote until she gets a better idea of how many House members will support it — a task assumed behind the scenes by the resolution’s primary co-sponsors, including Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. More than a dozen lawmakers withdrew their sponsorship of the measure this month.

More as of when.