Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan, State University, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Armenpress reports that a recent poll conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association reveals that had the 2008 Armenian presidential election been held this month, prime minister Serzh Sarkisian would attract 31.8 percent of the vote. Trailing his lead were opposition Heritage party leader Raffi Hovannisian with 12.3 percent, the pro-government oligarch and Prosperous Armenia party leader, Gagik Tsarukian, with 12 percent, and another opposition party leader, Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian, with 11.2 percent. This means that a second round would have to be held.

According to the survey which was conducted among 1,000 respondents throughout the country, the first president of the Republic of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, would attract 3.8 percent of the vote. Interestingly, if the current president, Robert Kocharian, were able to run, he would attract only 2.9 percent. The poll also indicated that in terms of party support, the Republican party of the prime minister enjoys the most with 21 percent, and Prosperous Armenia is second with 16 percent.

Orinats Yerkir, Heritage and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnakstutyun are third, fourth and fifth, respectively. However, opinion polls in Armenia are hardly respected or treated seriously by anyone with critics arguing that the organizations conducting the polling are usually politicized. RFE/RL’s Press Review, for example, quotes a pro-government and a pro-opposition newspaper as casting doubts on such surveys.

“Hayots Ashkhar” complains that few in Armenia trust the credibility of the country’s leading pollsters accused by the opposition of collaborating with the government. “The widely held belief is that independent polling centers are non-existent here,” says the paper. Nonetheless, it says, as the presidential elections approach politicians are increasingly obsessed with popularity ratings issued by various centers.

“Hayk” shrugs off Armenian opinion polls as a “sociology of flattery.” “There is a lie, a terrible lie, and statistics,” says the opposition paper. “Opinion polls in Armenia have long been driven to the sphere of science fiction.” Pollsters, it says, routinely rig their data in order to get money from the authorities.

The full post is available on the 2008 Presidential Election Monitor Blog.