The Numbers Game
It always happens when an opposition rally is held. Local journalists start to play games with numbers depending on their political affiliations and sympathies. So, despite the consensus of opinion from independent observers and foreign wire services present at Friday’s opposition rally that there was anywhere between 10-15,000 people in attendance, it’s interesting to note how different media outlets and bloggers are reporting the rally during which Levon Ter Petrosian declared he would run again for office.
Here’s a breakdown:
Regnum News Agency: 10,000
PanArmenian.Net: 10,000
The Armenian Observer: Around 10,000
The Armenian Patchwork: Around 10,000
Associated Press (AP): More than 10,000
Oneworld Multimedia: 10-13,000
Internews: 10-15,000
Agence France-Presse (AFP): Up to 15,000EurasiaNet: About 20,000
Radio Free Europe: More than 20,000
168 Zham: More than 20,000
A1 Plus: 35-40,000 (!)
Noyan Tapan: 30-50,000 (!!)
Haykakan Zhamanak: 60,000 (!!!)
Well, I have to say, given that my first reaction was to say to others at the rally that there weren’t as many people in attendance as I expected, full marks to the first group and my concerns with the second. Specifically, very bad marks to A1 Plus, Noyan Tapan, and especially Haykakan Zhamanak for grossly inflating or miscalculating the figure for those in attendance.
According to one media professional I spoke to, Liberty Square can hold 15,000 people at full capacity standing comfortably. Packed in like sardines, apparently, it can hold up to 25,000, but there was clearly a large amount of space at the sides and and it was as easy to walk through as well as around the crowd as at other rallies in the past which were put by independent observers at 10-15,000.
At any rate, I think the AP and AFP figure of between 10-15,000 can be considered the most accurate and impartial given the reputation of both agencies. Interestingly, bloggers appear to agree with them. I’ll leave it up to readers to determine whether this says anything about the political sympathies of those reporting on the 2008 presidential election in Armenia.
Update
Here’s another good blog post which instead refers to the various estimates rather than coming up with one formed through political partisanship and sympathies. This is especially true given that this account is from a non-Armenian.
On Friday, purely out of curiosity, I went to observe a political rally on Freedom square. The opposition parties decleared their common support for Levon Ter-Petrosian and after a one-and-a-half hour speech he decleared his candidacy for the presidential elections in February. The square in front of the opera filled up with people, different newsreports gives estimates ranging from 10 000 to 20 000 people present.
I did not understand much of the speeches, since they all were in armenian. I could simply observe the crowd. Judging from their faces, without smiles or much expression at all, I guess most of them were there out of curiosity rather than a burning political engagement for the speakers. But there were also a large number of people towards the front waving big Armenian flags and cheering whenever the speaker reached the many peaks of his speach.
Basically, independent estimates put the number of those in attendance at not more than 20,000 with the foreign news wires not going higher than 15,000. Splitting the difference, I’d say that would be closer to the truth although like most other bloggers, believe it was less than 15,000 and closer to 10,000.
Regardless, it would appear that partisan media outlets and journalists put the number at over 20 or 30,000. A1 Plus, Noyan Tapan and Haykakan Zhamanak figures can certainly be discounted as mistaken or intended to mislead.
Incidentally, it’s interesting to note that A1 Plus’ estimates of crowd size changed during its on the spot reporting from the rally. It’s not possible to say whether the two reports were by the same journalist (I saw at least two A1 Plus reporters present), but the numbers drastically change seemingly for no reason.
It’s worth noting that the rally started at 5pm and was finished long before the second story so something really weird happened in the hours inbetween.
Comment by Onnik — October 30, 2007 @ 4:11 am
You know George Galloway, don’t you?
Comment by Armen Filadelfiatsi — October 30, 2007 @ 10:59 am
My impression was - that at first the number of people seemed to grow, however, halfway LTP’s speech, I saw some people leave - as others kept coming. However, I don’t think the movement of people was so drastic as to affect numbers to the degree that we see in A1plus reporting.
Basicly - A1plus is doing partial, pro-opposition reporting, not the type of quality you’d expect from it, given the widespread support to the A1plus cause from media professionals and Media NGOs.
Comment by Observer — October 30, 2007 @ 12:23 pm
Observer, the point is that both those reports were posted towards the end of the rally or after it so there should be no reason for the discrepancy. Anyway, when you and I spoke to the side of the rally that was when you gave the figure of 10,000 and said Deutsche Welle or AP or somebody were reckoning 13,000.
Like I said, I’m going with the AP and AFP numbers. I think they’re the only ones that can be trusted — with bloggers confirming the numbers so to speak before and after their reports
Anyway, a word of warning regarding numbers quoted by Noyan Tapan, A1 Plus and Haykakan Zhamanak in the future. The second two outlets are effectively the mouthpiece of the radical opposition and supportive of Ter Petrosian in particular, but Noya Tapan? I’m deeply disappointed, and not too happy with the EurasiaNet and RFE/RL figures either, but anyway, at least they didn’t get too carried away.
Like I said, there was significant space on either side of Liberty Square roughly parallel to the statues and there was a clear path round the entire back of those assembled between them and the cafes behind them. Moreover, it was possible for me to weave through several lines of people at the back with no problem whatsoever to pass from side to side.
That’s not something I can say about every event I’ve been to in Liberty Square. Anyway, I think we can pretty much kiss goodbye to much impartial reporting on the election now. It’s a battle with both sides having their people in both media camps. As a result, I think I can only now trust AP and AFP for reporting.
Even RFE/RL is becoming partisan although it still puts the other side of argument which is good. Nonetheless, I don’t think that it was responsible to report “more than 20,000″ when the main international news wires didn’t. The only guys who did so were pro-Ter Petrosian and/or anti-Sarkisian hacks.
Basically, “conservative estimates put the number of those in attendance at around 10,000 with others saying up to 15,000. The organizers and media supportive of Ter Petrosian’s presidential bid, however, put the number at significantly more.”
That’s the only objective way to report the rally, in my opinion. Anyway, they say the first casualty in any war is the truth, and it seems the 2008 presidential election in Armenia will be no different.
Comment by Onnik — October 30, 2007 @ 12:55 pm
Seems like A1 Plus aren’t the only ones unable to keep to an initial figure. RFE/RL now reports 30,000.
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/2007/10/2-tca/tca-291007.asp
Who knows, by the weekend we might reach 50,000 even if it’s not actually possible to get as many in Liberty Square.Then again, as we’re now entering a period where the truth and facts don’t matter, let’s make it 75,000 or hell, let’s write 100,000.
Why not? I mean, the numbers are meant to promote Ter Petrosian’s presidential bid, and the majority of the population won’t have access to them anyway…
Comment by Onnik — October 30, 2007 @ 5:00 pm
I wonder if the majority of the sources say there was 20+k people, there were indeed 20+k people?
Comment by nazarian — October 30, 2007 @ 7:46 pm
Well, the majority of sources don’t say that do they? Secondly, someone has to explain whether there could be 20,000 people in a space that did not fill the whole of Liberty Square. Moreover, many of those sources are openly pro-opposition and actually working with Ter Petrosian’s team. A1 Plus and Pashinian’s Haykakan Zhamanak, for example. As for RFE/RL and EurasiaNet the author is the same journalist.
So, looks to me that most sources — including the most reputable and independent — say less than 15,000. Besides, you’d say that because you are also a LTP supporter and more than that, you weren’t at the rally. As I also pointed out, first of all A1 Plus reported over 15,000 before suddenly doubling their figure. No, if most bloggers and independent analysts of which I met three said between 10-15,000, I’d go with that and not least because Regnum, Internews, AP and AFP also do. Deutsch Welle are also said to have come to the same estimate.
The only logical response for those people not actually there, apart from deciding on the number based on personal political preferences and what they’d like the number to be, is to split the difference between all the main and non-openly aligned media outlets. That is, somewhere between 10-20,000. Of course, like I said, the only true objective approach would be to split the difference between that and to then add that organizers double or triple the figure because they always do.
Basically, in this case, the question is more one of whether those media outlets who said more than 20,000 are politically independent, and quite obviously they are not. It will be interesting to see if Hetq Online reports on the rally next Monday and what they say the number is. This is especially interesting because the husband of their Translation/English Editor is none other than Alexander Arzoumanian, Ter Petrosian’s right hand man.
Meanwhile, we know that A1 Plus supports the radical opposition and that Haykakan Zhamanak is the semi-official organ of Ter Petrosian and supportive of HHSh. Interestingly, I raised this issue with the Caucasus Editor of EurasiaNet on the eve of the parliamentary election only to have other journalists present working freelance for the site deny such a fact. Now we know who was right.
Anyway, I’m still confused by Noyan Tapan’s reporting, though. Such a pity from a source I’ve always valued in the past. Personally, based on what I saw, I’m going with the estimate that people such as the Media Diversity Institute’s Artur Papyan, analyst Samuel Martirosian, Transition Online’s Anush, Internews, Regnum, AP and AFP came up with. It’s also based on attending pretty much every opposition rally held in Yerevan since 1999.
Comment by Onnik — October 30, 2007 @ 7:57 pm
I confirm, that Deutsch Welle also had the figure more then 10,000, because it was with their reporter and the Associated Press reporter, that we were making the estimation.
Comment by Observer — October 30, 2007 @ 8:05 pm
When you remove PanArmenian and other government outlets, the majority say 20k or more.
The question I have is how have the Kocharian and Co. responded to the rally? I’ve seen the Stalinist reports on public TV and read about the criminal charges brought against the victims of the October 23 beatings by the paramilitaries. Have they initiated more violence?
Comment by nazarian — October 30, 2007 @ 9:00 pm
Sorry, apart from Pan-Armenian.Net, which of the other outlets are pro-government? Really, they’re not mentioned at all in this post.
However, all the sites mentioning over 20,000 mentioned here are either anti-government or their journalists are.
Now, are you calling myself, Observer, Internews, AP, AFP etc pro-government?
If you have other estimates quoted by media reports then please post them to back up your claims not that it means anything. The point is the estimates over 15,000 are from those supportive of Ter Petrosian’s bid.
As I see it, independent sources are using figures of 10-15,000. Regarding violence, my understanding was that both sides were violent — Pashinian and co as well as the police.
And this is my greatest fear about Ter Petrosian’s supporters. I saw them in action before and during the 12 May parliamentary election and one thing was obvious. They want clashes.
Comment by Onnik — October 30, 2007 @ 10:18 pm
You or observer are not pro-government; perhaps anti-LTP but not pro-government.
I base my estimated attendants on all the media reports I have seen, not only the list you have provided.
Comment by nazarian — October 31, 2007 @ 12:04 am
Actually, I don’t consider myself to be anti-LTP and for that matter, anti-government. Instead, I believe we should report the pros and cons for both and concern ourself with as accurate reporting as possible. For example, I’ve also posted some entries that could be considered “pro-LTP” whereas you consider this one to be “anti-LTP.”
In reality, I just want the media to do its job and not take sides, perhaps with the exception of editorials and so on. However, when it comes to reporting on the size of crowds we need to be as accurate as possible. As many of us therefore consider the number of those in attendance to be the same as that estimated by AP, AFP and Deutsch Welle I’m thinking this is neither “pro-LTP” or “anti-LTP.”
I’m simply tired of the numbers game, and the same is true when pro-government media report that a 15,000 opposition rally numbered 4-5,000. What we need more than anything is accurate reporting free from political affiliations and bias. Of course, I understand that for this presidential election we’ll once again not get it.
However, it’s obvious that both the pro-opposition and the pro-governmental press are playing the same game. Anyway, regarding your comment about the media reports you’ve seen, can you post the numbers and publications so we can all get an idea of who said what?
Otherwise, it’s hard to know whether those figures are partisan unless we know which publication reported them. Until we do, reference to such estimates which are not quoted are meaningless so I’d be grateful if you could list them.
Comment by Onnik — October 31, 2007 @ 12:26 am
As Cletus Del Roy Spuckler would say: “Duly noted”
I saw a 40k+ estimate in an Iravunk article that was anti LTP.
Go figure…
Anyway, you have been at the rally so your estimate is first hand while mine is from media reports and thus not reliable especially given the sorry state of journalism in Armenia.
Plus, the number of participants does not add value to the presidential race now. Even if the 2 million population of Armenia votes for LTP, Serj will still be elected a president.
Comment by nazarian — November 1, 2007 @ 6:19 am
Nazarian, as I’ve said in posts on the rally — whether it is 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000 — the meeting was still respectable in local terms. It’s usually only after elections that we have really large groups amassed on the streets — 40-45,000 in 2003 and from some accounts, 60,000 in 1996.
There’s also another issue. Regardless of the size of opposition meetings, they usually reduce in size rather than increase. This I think is the main point about LTP’s return. At future meetings will there be more or less people in attendance. For now, I would guess that they’re more likely to increase.
If that happens, and especially as it looks more and more likely that LTP will be the main opposition candidate, his return to politics can be seen to be a threat. Moreover, I can’t remember the authorities here reacting in such a panicked way to a potential contender as this. So, 10,15 or 20,000 it doesn’t really matter. The meeting was significant and especially as it was LTP who was the center of attention.
If you had asked anyone about such a rally even as recently as two months ago, nobody would believe it would be possible to attract more than a few hundred, I think. Also, there is obviously momentum. However, regarding the election itself, I think more to the point is who the West will support and whether any rallies staged after a possibly falsified election will achieve anything.
With Demirchian in 2003 the answer was clear, and even with Impeachment and Republic in May, but with LTP, I think we’re in a totally different situation. On the other hand, if Serzh were to “legitimately” win in an albeit dirty election, would LTP and his supporters concede defeat. I’m not sure on the answer to this question, but suspect its no. Interesting days, I suppose, although the tendency seems more towards instability and clashes than not.
Still, that’s the situation Armenia has gotten itself in, I suppose, and now we have to see who the electorate dislikes more — Levon or Serzh. Of course, I’d also like to see real issues discussed, and for sure, if we get another televised presidential candidate debate it’s going to be fascinating this time round.
Comment by Onnik — November 1, 2007 @ 12:00 pm
Onnik, just one point. I think the West’s influence is not that crucial in Armenia. The Russian influence and support would affect the results to the more extent than the West’s.
Comment by artmika — November 1, 2007 @ 7:05 pm
Hmmm, well I’d argue that any support from outside would be useful for the opposition. As it was, neither Russia nor the West supported them in the past so I’d say that even Western support would be useful.
Comment by Onnik — November 1, 2007 @ 7:40 pm
It’s always dangerous to involve outsiders in the internal politics of Armenia.
Comment by nazarian — November 1, 2007 @ 9:36 pm
Nazarian, that’s as it may be, but nothing gets done in Armenia without them. Whether it’s the U.S., Europe, Russia, the World Bank, the Council of Europe or whoever, nothing is determined locally.
Comment by Onnik — November 1, 2007 @ 9:50 pm
A1 Plus’ Diana Markosian has written something on Ter Petrosian for IWPR and puts the number of participants in the rally at 10-15,000. No need to write anymore on this subject, I think.
http://www.iwpr.net/EN-crs-f-340306
Comment by Onnik — November 1, 2007 @ 11:03 pm