ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT MOVES AGAINST EX-PRESIDENT

Official media campaign waged against former president as he launches new leadership bid.

By Diana Markosian in Yerevan

After a nine-year silence, former Armenian leader Levon Ter-Petrosian declared on October 26 that he would be running for president in next year’s elections.

In response, the current administration has moved swiftly to undermine Ter-Petrosian’s campaign. Police detained several of his supporters three days before he made his announcement.

Ter-Petrosian, who was Armenian president from 1991 to 1998, announced his plans at a rally on Yerevan’s Freedom Square attended by 10,000-15,000 people, ending weeks of speculation about his political comeback ahead of a presidential poll due next February.

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http://www.iwpr.net/EN-crs-f-340306

There’s also another issue. Regardless of the size of opposition meetings, they usually reduce in size rather than increase. This I think is the main point about LTP’s return. At future meetings will there be more or less people in attendance. For now, I would guess that they’re more likely to increase.

If that happens, and especially as it looks more and more likely that LTP will be the main opposition candidate, his return to politics can be seen to be a threat. Moreover, I can’t remember the authorities here reacting in such a panicked way to a potential contender as this. So, 10,15 or 20,000 it doesn’t really matter. The meeting was significant and especially as it was LTP who was the center of attention.

If you had asked anyone about such a rally even as recently as two months ago, nobody would believe it would be possible to attract more than a few hundred, I think. Also, there is obviously momentum. However, regarding the election itself, I think more to the point is who the West will support and whether any rallies staged after a possibly falsified election will achieve anything.

With Demirchian in 2003 the answer was clear, and even with Impeachment and Republic in May, but with LTP, I think we’re in a totally different situation. On the other hand, if Serzh were to “legitimately” win in an albeit dirty election, would LTP and his supporters concede defeat. I’m not sure on the answer to this question, but suspect its no. Interesting days, I suppose, although the tendency seems more towards instability and clashes than not.

Still, that’s the situation Armenia has gotten itself in, I suppose, and now we have to see who the electorate dislikes more — Levon or Serzh. Of course, I’d also like to see real issues discussed, and for sure, if we get another televised presidential candidate debate it’s going to be fascinating this time round.

I saw a 40k+ estimate in an Iravunk article that was anti LTP.

Go figure…

Anyway, you have been at the rally so your estimate is first hand while mine is from media reports and thus not reliable especially given the sorry state of journalism in Armenia.

Plus, the number of participants does not add value to the presidential race now. Even if the 2 million population of Armenia votes for LTP, Serj will still be elected a president.

In reality, I just want the media to do its job and not take sides, perhaps with the exception of editorials and so on. However, when it comes to reporting on the size of crowds we need to be as accurate as possible. As many of us therefore consider the number of those in attendance to be the same as that estimated by AP, AFP and Deutsch Welle I’m thinking this is neither “pro-LTP” or “anti-LTP.”

I’m simply tired of the numbers game, and the same is true when pro-government media report that a 15,000 opposition rally numbered 4-5,000. What we need more than anything is accurate reporting free from political affiliations and bias. Of course, I understand that for this presidential election we’ll once again not get it.

However, it’s obvious that both the pro-opposition and the pro-governmental press are playing the same game. Anyway, regarding your comment about the media reports you’ve seen, can you post the numbers and publications so we can all get an idea of who said what?

Otherwise, it’s hard to know whether those figures are partisan unless we know which publication reported them. Until we do, reference to such estimates which are not quoted are meaningless so I’d be grateful if you could list them.

I base my estimated attendants on all the media reports I have seen, not only the list you have provided.

However, all the sites mentioning over 20,000 mentioned here are either anti-government or their journalists are.

Now, are you calling myself, Observer, Internews, AP, AFP etc pro-government?

If you have other estimates quoted by media reports then please post them to back up your claims not that it means anything. The point is the estimates over 15,000 are from those supportive of Ter Petrosian’s bid.

As I see it, independent sources are using figures of 10-15,000. Regarding violence, my understanding was that both sides were violent — Pashinian and co as well as the police.

And this is my greatest fear about Ter Petrosian’s supporters. I saw them in action before and during the 12 May parliamentary election and one thing was obvious. They want clashes.

The question I have is how have the Kocharian and Co. responded to the rally? I’ve seen the Stalinist reports on public TV and read about the criminal charges brought against the victims of the October 23 beatings by the paramilitaries. Have they initiated more violence?

So, looks to me that most sources — including the most reputable and independent — say less than 15,000. Besides, you’d say that because you are also a LTP supporter and more than that, you weren’t at the rally. As I also pointed out, first of all A1 Plus reported over 15,000 before suddenly doubling their figure. No, if most bloggers and independent analysts of which I met three said between 10-15,000, I’d go with that and not least because Regnum, Internews, AP and AFP also do. Deutsch Welle are also said to have come to the same estimate.

The only logical response for those people not actually there, apart from deciding on the number based on personal political preferences and what they’d like the number to be, is to split the difference between all the main and non-openly aligned media outlets. That is, somewhere between 10-20,000. Of course, like I said, the only true objective approach would be to split the difference between that and to then add that organizers double or triple the figure because they always do.

Basically, in this case, the question is more one of whether those media outlets who said more than 20,000 are politically independent, and quite obviously they are not. It will be interesting to see if Hetq Online reports on the rally next Monday and what they say the number is. This is especially interesting because the husband of their Translation/English Editor is none other than Alexander Arzoumanian, Ter Petrosian’s right hand man.

Meanwhile, we know that A1 Plus supports the radical opposition and that Haykakan Zhamanak is the semi-official organ of Ter Petrosian and supportive of HHSh. Interestingly, I raised this issue with the Caucasus Editor of EurasiaNet on the eve of the parliamentary election only to have other journalists present working freelance for the site deny such a fact. Now we know who was right.

Anyway, I’m still confused by Noyan Tapan’s reporting, though. Such a pity from a source I’ve always valued in the past. Personally, based on what I saw, I’m going with the estimate that people such as the Media Diversity Institute’s Artur Papyan, analyst Samuel Martirosian, Transition Online’s Anush, Internews, Regnum, AP and AFP came up with. It’s also based on attending pretty much every opposition rally held in Yerevan since 1999.

http://www.rferl.org/newsline/2007/10/2-tca/tca-291007.asp

Who knows, by the weekend we might reach 50,000 even if it’s not actually possible to get as many in Liberty Square.Then again, as we’re now entering a period where the truth and facts don’t matter, let’s make it 75,000 or hell, let’s write 100,000.

Why not? I mean, the numbers are meant to promote Ter Petrosian’s presidential bid, and the majority of the population won’t have access to them anyway…

Like I said, I’m going with the AP and AFP numbers. I think they’re the only ones that can be trusted — with bloggers confirming the numbers so to speak before and after their reports

Anyway, a word of warning regarding numbers quoted by Noyan Tapan, A1 Plus and Haykakan Zhamanak in the future. The second two outlets are effectively the mouthpiece of the radical opposition and supportive of Ter Petrosian in particular, but Noya Tapan? I’m deeply disappointed, and not too happy with the EurasiaNet and RFE/RL figures either, but anyway, at least they didn’t get too carried away.

Like I said, there was significant space on either side of Liberty Square roughly parallel to the statues and there was a clear path round the entire back of those assembled between them and the cafes behind them. Moreover, it was possible for me to weave through several lines of people at the back with no problem whatsoever to pass from side to side.

That’s not something I can say about every event I’ve been to in Liberty Square. Anyway, I think we can pretty much kiss goodbye to much impartial reporting on the election now. It’s a battle with both sides having their people in both media camps. As a result, I think I can only now trust AP and AFP for reporting.

Even RFE/RL is becoming partisan although it still puts the other side of argument which is good. Nonetheless, I don’t think that it was responsible to report “more than 20,000″ when the main international news wires didn’t. The only guys who did so were pro-Ter Petrosian and/or anti-Sarkisian hacks.

Basically, “conservative estimates put the number of those in attendance at around 10,000 with others saying up to 15,000. The organizers and media supportive of Ter Petrosian’s presidential bid, however, put the number at significantly more.”

That’s the only objective way to report the rally, in my opinion. Anyway, they say the first casualty in any war is the truth, and it seems the 2008 presidential election in Armenia will be no different.

Basicly - A1plus is doing partial, pro-opposition reporting, not the type of quality you’d expect from it, given the widespread support to the A1plus cause from media professionals and Media NGOs.

7.06pm: “Over 15000 rally participants…”
http://home.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&iid=53816

9.39pm: “over 35-40 thousand people”
http://home.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&iid=53834

It’s worth noting that the rally started at 5pm and was finished long before the second story so something really weird happened in the hours inbetween.