Following on from Wednesday’s clashes in Tbilisi, Registan concludes that the decision to call a presidential election on 5 January 2008 is a smart move by the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili. A referendum to determine whether the parliamentary election should be held in the spring — one of the opposition demands — will also be held at the same time.

My snap take though is that this is tentatively good news for Georgia and the US. This hopefully will put Georgia back on more or less the right track. Rumors on the street were that the crackdown could only have come with US backing, and hopefully this will help repair some of the public relations damage.

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[…] Georgia’s opposition is badly fractured; pretty much the only thing they could agree to was protesting Saakashvili’s regime. So this might, as commenters James and JB suggest, be a clever ploy to legitimately stay in power, however unpopular he may be.

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[…] The Economist notes a curious synergy: “IT WAS exactly four years ago that Mikheil Saakashvili, then a youthful firebrand leader of the opposition to President Eduard Shevardnadze, brought his supporters out into the streets of Tbilisi.” Interesting.

Incidentally, I don’t believe that the situation in Tbilisi warranted declaring a State of Emergency. Indeed, I don’t believe there was any need at all for the riot police to respond as they did over a few tents which could have been removed in other ways. The opposition protests didn’t appear to represent a threat to Saakashvili and his reaction was totally unnecessary.

Unless, of course, exploiting the situation could be used to achieve other things such as restricting media freedom and civil rights ahead of the election he called soon afterwards. The relevant article in the Georgian constitution certainly provides food for thought.

Article 46

1. In case of a state emergency or martial law, the President of Georgia shall be authorised to restrict the rights and freedoms enumerated in Articles 18, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 30, 33 and 41 of the Constitution either throughout the whole country or a certain part thereof. The President shall be obliged to submit the decision to the Parliament for approval within 48 hours.

2. In case of introduction of a state of emergency or martial law throughout the whole territory of the state, elections of the President of Georgia, the Parliament of Georgia or other representative bodies of Georgia shall be held upon the cancellation of the state. In case of introduction of a state of emergency in a certain part of the state the Parliament of Georgia shall adopt a decision on holding the elections throughout the other territories of the state.

Regardless, Armenia Now looks at the implications of the crackdown on Armenia. Prior to this week’s events, such a show of force against the opposition had only been seen in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Even then, the situation was not the same although the raiding of TV stations is an unfortunate precedent that Saakashvili should be deeply ashamed of.

“The resemblance of events in Armenia and Georgia is only on the surface, the political processes are quite different, so drawing parallels, I believe, is improper,” says expert of the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies Ruben Mehrabyan.

Analysts Alexander Iskandaryan and Yervand Bozoyan share the opinion.

“Developments in Georgia can have only an indirect impact on Armenia, because our presidential election will be earlier. They can affect events that will happen in Armenia after the election, if the opposition loses, for instance,” says Bozoyan.

Of course, now the situation has changed since Armenia Now published its article. The election in Georgia will now take place more than a month before the presidential election Armenia. As a result, I think it will influence the conduct of the election here.

Political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan thinks even the events brewing in Georgia won’t result in a revolution. He believes it is simply a struggle between clans.

“Saakashvili’s position is quite strong. Besides, the representatives of the opposition are the heirs of hisown policies. They are also corrupt and pro-Western,” mentions Melik-Shahnazaryan.

Melik-Shahnazaryan forecasts rallies may result in clashes that may somewhat influence the Armenian-Georgian economic ties, but they won’t be of ‘regional nature’.

The data of the British “ComRes” Company, who held a public opinion survey four months before the presidential election in Armenia show 52 percent of population in the country believes a “color” revolution is impossible in Armenia. 24 percent think everything depends on the situation, 10 percent believe a color revolution a possibility, and 14 percent have opted for ‘I don’t know’.

Interestingly, that same poll quoted by Armenia Now also revealed some other interesting data. According to Public Radio, the poll indicates that the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, is in pole position to win the 2008 presidential election in Armenia. Some might disagree, but that’s what the survey says.

If the poll was conducted this Sunday, 55% of the enfranchised would participate in it. 38% of the voters would cast their ballot in favor of Serge Sargsyan, 13% - for Raffi Hovhannisyan, 12%- for Arthur Baghdasaryan, 8% - Artashes Geghamyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 5% - Vazgen Manukyan, 4% - Gagik Tsarukyan and 4% - Vahan Hovhannisyan. Aram Karapetyan would receive 1%.

However, more on that poll and other election-related news is best left for a separate post. For now, suffice to say that the political processes in play in the South Caucasus are unprecedented indeed. Whether that’s for better or worse, however, remains to be seen.