On the eve of tomorrow’s opposition rally in Yerevan’s Liberty Square where the former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, is due to hold his second public rally, I was getting ready to urge some caution in assessing his chances of becoming the main opposition challenger to the prime minister’s presidential bid. Agreed, despite possessing the ability to unite some of the opposition, people still remember his time in power. And while activists in civil society circles might welcome his return — some albeit reluctantly — many others don’t.

If anything, tomorrow actually represented the opportunity for Ter Petrosian to address outstanding criticisms of his regime, something that the meeting is intended to achieve, and to start to build on attracting a following in Armenia. To be honest, such a task wouldn’t be easy with the majority of Armenians believing that the outcome of February’s presidential election is already decided or that there is no alternative to the prime minister. For the radical opposition to prove otherwise would probably have been an uphill struggle.

Some independent observers recognize this, and you would have thought the government might as well, but no. A1 Plus reports that the authorities instead go and do something like this:

The construction of the stage in the Liberty Square for 17 November Dima Bilan’s concert is in the process. The stage equipments cover the main territory of the Square. Besides the main stage, another smaller stage is installed right in the center of the Square, which is foreseen for stage lighting.

Following the preparations for the concert, one thinks of tomorrows gathering. Where will the participants of the gathering stand?

We should remind that tomorrow on 16 November at 17 p.m. a gathering will be held with the participation of the RA First President in the Liberty Square.

Yes, that’s right. Despite it being the middle of November when it’s cold and prone to rain, a stage constructed for a free pop concert sponsored by the ruling Republican party will actually interfere with the ability of the opposition to hold their rally. If ever the government wanted to hand the former president something on a plate, this is it. By acting in such a way they are making it more likely that Ter Petrosian will be seen by those against the government as the only opposition candidate able to contest the election.

Stupidity is not the word to describe such an action although I’m sure the Yerevan municipality and the ruling Republican party are convinced that they are being clever. For outside observers such as myself, however, such petty attempts to disrupt the right to freedom of assembly combined with a campaign of black PR against Ter Petrosian is more likely to achieve the opposite. It will also convince the opposition, and perhaps even the public, that Ter Petrosian poses a real threat to Sarkisian’s presidential ambitions.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.