rub·ber·neck

1. to look about or stare with great curiosity, as by craning the neck or turning the head.

2. to gawk at: The tieup was due to drivers rubbernecking an accident.

3. a sightseer; tourist.

4. an extremely curious person.

rub·ber·neck·er

A gawking onlooker.

With only a few hours left before Ter Petrosian’s speech in Liberty Square it’s perhaps time to get some perspective on these rallies. Firstly, the estimates for attendance at the last meeting appear to have been inflated by a number of media outlets and journalists sympathetic towards Ter Petrosian or the opposition. Secondly, many would have been there simply out of curiosity.

Certainly, most of the crowd at the 26th October meeting did not cheer, but simply listened. Given the nature of today’s rally where Ter Petrosian is expected to answer critics of his time in power, it can be supposed that as many people interested in hearing his response will turn up as supporters. This point is not lost on Raffi K at Life in Armenia:

Today is the 2nd Ter-Petrossian speech at the Opera (tonight). I don’t know if I’ll go - most the people I know who have gone have been rubberneckers, not supporters, and I am not sure I want to contribute to the swelling of his supposed ranks with rubberneckers. However, he is supposed to provide an explanation for his shortcomings today, which would be quite interesting - though I’m not sure I’d understand all the academic Armenian.

Indeed, from speaking to people in order to assess the level of support Ter Petrosian has in society I can say this, although I admit this is not a scientific poll. Firstly, most of those working in opposition circles or civil support Ter Petrosian’s candidacy although some do so simply because they “hate Serzh.” However, speak to people outside such surrounds, and the picture is very different indeed. Some people say they support Sarkisian or another candidate other than Ter Petrosian, but most remain apathetic and uninterested.

Unfortunately, none of the reports so far have looked at the overall picture in terms of the makeup of the Ter Petrosian meetings. However, I think it can be taken for granted that when the first president says he will address four accusations against him, even those who despise him will turn up if only to listen. Of course, with Liberty Square obstructed in advance of tomorrow’s pop concert, perhaps even that is not so certain. What is important, however, is that this is not an anti-government or pro-opposition meeting.

This is a rally where it is expected that Ter Petrosian will attempt to clear his name. After that, it remains to be seen whether people take him at his word. Meanwhile, opinion polls that appear credible to me put the prime minister’s support at around 38 percent while Ter Petrosian’s rating is in single digits. Moreover, if there were to be a huge increase in support for the first president, I’d expect his mouthpiece newspaper, Haykakan Zhamanak, to double, triple, or even quadruple circulation in just a few days or weeks.

That would be a real sign of interest in Ter Petrosian, especially when the broadcast media is government-controlled, but to date it has not happened. Moreover, despite what Raffi K has said about rubberneckers, of 175 invited to attend via a Facebook Group, only 38 say they will or might show up. Really, I think it’s about time to put some perspective on this instead of journalists here reporting such rallies as if they are something more than just people coming out to see the first president of Armenia who has remained hidden and silent for nearly 10 years.

It will be interesting to see how the media reports this later on today or tomorrow, but I suspect that once again coverage will be divided down partisan political lines. Just when we need proper coverage and reporting at such a critical time, I fear that we will instead not have it. And unfortunately, with the way the radical opposition and government continue to engage in tactics designed to provoke the other, it’s obvious that clashes and tensions will define this election more than the one conducted in 2003.

This is a point made on my last two posts, and one also made by The Armenian Observer. I wish both sides would stop this now, but I have to say that I consider the radical opposition to be the main culprit here. As was the case during the 12 May parliamentary election, their agenda is not about issues, the problems facing Armenia, or how to develop the country. It is about personal vendettas and ambitions as well as creating friction in society to achieve those aims.

Don’t get me wrong, though. The government is to blame as well.