With 2008 almost upon us, it’s time once again for me to wish readers a Happy New Year. Under normal circumstances I’d also announce that the number of posts will be less as a result, but with the presidential election in Georgia a matter of days away, that hardly seems likely. On the other hand, with parliamentary elections held in Armenia in May earlier this year and the unofficial pre-election campaign starting at the end of 2006, perhaps the situation is not too dissimilar to that this blog found itself in a year ago when the situation was almost as hectic as it is now.

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With 2008 less than a day away at time of writing, it seems only appropriate to take a look back at the blogging highlights in the Caucasus for 2007. Certainly, although blogging is still largely underdeveloped, the year has seen some major highlights, especially with regards to stories that also made headlines worldwide. In the past this has not been the case, but the signs for Armenian and Georgian blogging look very promising indeed, and not least because the first two months of 2008 will see crucial presidential elections take place in both republics.

Although the same might be true for Azerbaijan as its presidential election scheduled for late next year looms closer, the elections seem to have encouraged citizens, activists and journalists to blog. Other high profile events also seem to have pushed more bloggers to engage in online discussion on key issues, especially in the arguably more evolved Armenian blogging scene. Interestingly, however, the first major blogging event of the year came on 19 January 2007 when journalist and editor, Hrant Dink, was murdered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Although Dink was a Turkish citizen and resident in Armenia’s neighbor to the West, he was also an ethnic Armenian and prolific in his calls for reconciliation between Armenians and Turks. His views might have alienated himself from the larger Armenian Diaspora who consider that Genocide Recognition is the most important issue facing Armenians today, but the point was that his assassination shocked the world, including many Turks in Turkey itself as well as those with no links to Armenian circles at all.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

It’s an issue that’s been raised on this blog a few times already, but now the U.S. Embassy has finally commented on attempts to discredit opinion polls conducted by a local organization for Gallup and the International Republican Institute (IRI). The polls which show the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, enjoying a commanding lead over his rivals for the 19 February presidential election have obviously been attacked by candidates shown to have less support in society.

That much is normal in any democratic country. However, those media outlets and organizations sympathetic to — or supportive of — the return of the first and former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, to power have also weighed into the argument. For example, this week a number of such stories have been published quoting other candidates such as Vahan Hovannisian, Vazgen Manukian and Artur Baghdasarian as saying they question the credibility of such polls.

Of course, they would question their credibility as that is politics, and this is an election. However, journalists did not apparently approach either Gallup, IRI, or the U.S. Embassy for their reaction to the allegations of political bias. Yesterday, it seems, the U.S. Embassy finally responded, and it is at least good to see that the issue of opinion polls has been raised, that a statement was issued, and also that media outlets critical of the surveys such as A1 Plus and RFE/RL carried the news.

The polls, financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and commissioned by the International Republican Institute, have been conducted on a regular basis since March 2006 with the aim of gauging public opinion on key issues facing Armenia. Respondents have also been asked by pollsters from the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA), overseen by the U.S. Gallup Organization, to rate the country’s main political leaders and parties.

Interest in the surveys has grown substantially in advance of the February 19 presidential election, with politicians and media commentators discussing ratings assigned to the main election candidates. Sarkisian has emerged as by far the most popular of the candidates, leading his allies to declare that his victory in the vote is a forgone conclusion.

[…]

In a statement, the U.S. embassy dismissed the mounting criticism whipped up by the pro-opposition press. “While the Embassy is encouraged that the study has focused the attention of Armenian society and political parties on the important electoral processes underway in the country, we are nevertheless concerned by the inaccurate portrayals of the study being reported in some national media,” it said.

[…]

“Neither the United States government, the International Republican Institute nor Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization endorses any particular party or candidate,” the statement stressed.

The embassy also reaffirmed the USAID’s plans to finance Armenia’s first-ever exit polls on election day. Prime Minister Sarkisian was reported to have approved those plans at a December 4 meeting with Joseph Pennington, the U.S. charge d’affaires. The embassy made it clear that the exit polls would be organized by Baltic Surveys/Gallup but did not specify if the ASA would again be contracted to do the crucial fieldwork.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

With news that the former prime minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto, has been assassinated, it’s probably appropriate to point readers to a special page for coverage of blogger reaction and reports over at Global Voices Online. I’m sure the section will be an important addition to the information already coming out of Pakistan via the news wires and main media outlets.

On 27th Dec 2007, Benazir Bhutto, ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan was assassinated in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, where she was addressing a political rally (see coverage from the New York Times and The Guardian). She served as the country’s Prime Minister from 1988 to 1990, and from 1993 to 1996, and returned to Pakistan in Oct 2007 after a period of exile. Her death comes at a crucial time for Pakistan, as the political emergency period was recently lifted, and elections are scheduled in Jan 2008.

Bloggers writing from and about Pakistan have expressed shock and concern, even as many of them disagree with her politics. Her death is seen as the latest in the series of attacks on civilians and as reflective of the larger issue of law and order in the country. Concerns have been expressed about the consequences of this tragedy both politically and immediately in terms of violence on the streets. This page aggregates some of the commentary on the assassination from Global Voices and from bloggers in Pakistan and other parts of South Asia.

Global Voices Online’s special coverage of the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination can be found here.

RFE/RL ran a story yesterday on a judge recently fired from his position who says he will now support the candidacy of former president Levon Ter Petrosian in the 19 February presidential election in Armenia. Interestingly, linking to an interview I conducted with him on the trafficking of women and children from Armenia, Ara Manoogian over at Martuni or Bust remembers the judge in question.

It seems that Levon Ter-Petrosian has attracted the support of former judge Pargev Ohanian. If you recall from my interview with Onnik, there is mention of corrupt practices by judge Ohaian […]

[…]

[…] The law contains provisions to hand down heavy sentences to traffickers but the legal system is not functioning correctly. I was present at the trial of five traffickers in Armenia last August and as far as I am concerned, Judge Ohanian and the prosecutor failed to do their jobs properly. These individuals should have received sentences of at least ten years but when Gulnara Shahinian, an expert on trafficking, presented the judge with details of Armenia’s international obligations to prosecute those guilty of trafficking, he instead insisted on prosecuting them with old Soviet laws that carried lighter sentences of only two years.

[…]

Though I don’t think LTP has a chance to win, if he does for some reason come back into power, you can be sure that the “justice” we will see is not the kind of justice we are in need of. If Ohanian is a reflection of the type of people LTP will surround himself with to fix our problems, then we can’t expect too much change if LPT wins, nor will we see our problems go away.

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Reuters reports that Turkey will finally consider amending Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code which has long been considered an obstacle to democratization and freedom of speech in the country. In particular, the article which makes “insulting Turkishness” a crime, has been used to prosecute Turkish intellectuals, activists and writers such as Orhan Pamuk as well as Turkish citizens of ethnic Armenian or Kurdish extraction such as Hrant Dink.

Indeed, many pro-democracy and freedom of speech activists consider that Article 301 was indirectly responsible for Dink’s murder in Istanbul earlier this year. Anyway, Reuters says that the amending the article is not guaranteed, but with growing pressure from both inside and outside Turkey to do so, let’s hope it is.

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey is preparing to amend a controversial law on freedom of speech that has been criticized repeatedly by the European Union and could slow EU accession talks with Brussels.

The justice ministry will hand the draft amendment to article 301 of the penal code, which makes it an offence to “insult Turkishness,” to the cabinet within 15 days, Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin told reporters on Tuesday.

It was not clear when the cabinet would approve the amendment.

Article 301 has been used to prosecute Turkish writers and thinkers, notably for comments on the mass killings of Armenians in 1915 under the Ottoman Empire.

Two years ago the government tried Nobel literature laureate Orhan Pamuk under article 301 for his remarks on the events of 1915-16, but he was acquitted on a legal technicality.

The European Commission’s annual progress report on Turkey, published in November, called on Ankara to make “significant further efforts” on freedom of expression and religion, and noted that more people had been prosecuted under article 301 last year than in 2005.

[…]

Critics say Turkey’s centre-right government is dragging its feet, fearing that amending the law could spark a nationalist backlash at a time when EU membership is becoming less popular among Turks.

EU officials said the law was poisoning Turkey’s relations with Armenia and weighing on the media and non-government organizations in Turkey.

While the prime minister and especially the former president of the Republic of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, trade accusations and engage in mud-slinging and black propaganda, Blogian comments on posts by myself and The Armenian Observer on the campaign being conducted by other candidates and parties. In particular, Observer says that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) appears to at least be attempting to appeal to the electorate.

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF-Dashnaktsutyun), are really trying their PR skills at the upcoming presidential elections. Following the first ever ‘primaries’ in Armenia held by the party on November 24-29, where anybody could come and vote, making a choice between two candidates of Dashnaktsutyun – Vahan Hovhannisyan and Armen Rustamyan, the party now has printed out 400,000 ‘contracts’ with Vahan Hovhannisyan - the ARF candidate.

According to this contract, the presidential candidate promises to make social changes, maintain political stability, contribute to the unification of Armenians in the homeland, establish social solidarity, ensure free elections.

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I first read about The Bastard of Istanbul by Elif Shafak in a post about the book on iArarat and was intrigued. I have to admit that books by Armenians on the Genocide are really not of any interest to me given that they are predictable and seem to be orientated towards an already convinced audience.

However, the idea of a Turkish writer touching upon this sensitive subject is another matter entirely which is why I’m glad to see that Myrthe from The Armenian Odar has written and just posted a review of the book. The review is made all the more interesting given that Myrthe is not Armenian as well.

The Armenian genocide is a major theme in the story, but eventually it is one of the ways the bigger theme of dealing with the past is worked out. All of the major characters have something in their past they have to deal with, either by accepting it or denying it or, even before acceptation or denial, by trying to find out what their past actually is.

[…]

It is a beautifully told story with an interesting plot, if somewhat constructed at times. I felt as if the author wanted to represent all the different opinions on the Armenian genocide in the book. There is the staunch Turkish nationalist who is absolutely convinced that there was no genocide and that, on the contrary, the Armenians killed the Turks en masse. There is the Turk who acknowledges that the Turks did horrible things to the Armenians during World War I, but that that was in the past and that the current generation is not responsible for it. There is also the Armenian who thinks that Armenians still living in Turkey are being repressed and who is convinced that they’d be better off emigrating. There is the somewhat skeptical Armenian who thinks that striving for recognition of the genocide is the only thing that still binds the Diaspora and that once recognition by Turkey has been achieved, the Diaspora will fall apart. Finally there is the Armenian who was born and raised in Istanbul, feels Istanbulite first and foremost and doesn’t want to live anywhere else. This urge to represent all those opinions led to superfluous scenes and even characters in my opinion. I ended up quickly reading the superfluous parts and then diving back into the rest of the book.

[…]

I am not sure the book is among my favorite reads of this year, but I did enjoy it very much and am certainly interested in reading more by Elif Shafak.

Anyway, although the book doesn’t sound as good as it could have been perhaps, if I can ever find the time to put my feet up to read, The Bastard of Istanbul might be on my list. Of course, I’ve also yet to read Ali and Nino: A Love Story which I might finally do over this holiday season. Thanks, Myrthe, for the review.

YouTube has a video of Shakira performing Whenever, Wherever in Tbilisi, Georgia, two days ago. Didn’t even realize Shakira was performing there, but anyway. Reuters, however, posted a story about the pop star’s performance days earlier, but I didn’t realize until today. A pity as I would have considered venturing up there.

For most European capitals a Shakira concert is nothing special, but for tiny ex-Soviet Georgia the arrival of the hip-swiveling pop star may be a sign their economy is crawling back from the dead.

The Grammy award-winning singer from Colombia, known for her hit-single “Hips Don’t Lie,” is the biggest pop performer to play in Georgia, and local media report that her fee for Sunday’s show is between $1 and $3 million.

Shakira is coming to Tbilisi by invitation of a company building the city’s Park Hyatt hotel, part of a wave of foreign investment pouring into Georgia since reformist President Mikhail Saakashvili was elected in 2004.

“We have never dealt with such a big show before,” concert promoter Mikhail Giorgadze told Reuters. “None of the other entertainment projects that we have done before can even come close to this commercial scale,” he said.

Fans of Shakira will listen to her for free at an open square in the centre of Tbilisi on Sunday.

Tbilisi has hosted past concerts by the late Ray Charles and English pop band Simply Red, as well as artists from the Russian entertainment world, but never by a performer with Shakira’s mainstream commercial appeal.

Georgia’s economy imploded after the end of the Soviet Union as the country was pitched into civil war, separatist fighting and political chaos.

But foreign direct investment has been rising fast under Saakashvili and is forecast to reach $2 billion this year. Two years ago it was $700-$800 million. International hotel chains are among the investors attracted to Tbilisi.

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RFE/RL reports that presidential candidate Vahan Hovannisian has questioned the reliability of opinion polls held in the run up to the 19 February presidential election. Opinion polls have long been criticized by candidates in previous elections, and especially by those who are identified as trailing their competitors. What makes this criticism more newsworthy, however, is that RFE/RL appears to be casting doubt on the integrity of Gallup and the U.S. Embassy in Armenia.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian is not as popular as is claimed by pro-government pollsters, one of his election challengers representing the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) said on Monday.

Deputy parliament speaker Vahan Hovannisian also echoed former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s claim that the Armenian authorities artificially increased the number of presidential candidates to facilitate Sarkisian’s victory in the ballot scheduled for February 19.

Opinion polls conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) and other local researchers have consistently given Sarkisian a huge lead over other election contenders. Armenian state television cited on Sunday the results of the latest, U.S.-funded poll designed by the U.S. Gallup organization and conducted by the ASA.

It said Sarkisian would garner 29 percent of the vote if the election was held this week. Opposition leader Artur Baghdasarian would come in a distant second but far ahead of other candidates with 12 percent, according to the poll.

The full post is available on the Armenian Election Monitor 2008.

For those of you that celebrate Christmas on 25 December, seasons greetings. Although Armenians won’t celebrate Christmas until 6 January, there was nonetheless some seasonal cheer in the capital last night as a few of us bloggers met up for a drink to see in the day and also to discuss blogging and politics.

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