Via Unzipped, another poll, but this time from a pro-opposition newspaper, shows the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, clearly in the lead if the presidential election was held two weekends ago. However, it also shows that he does not have enough support to win in a first round, and also that as mentioned on this blog time and time again, the majority of the population are actually undecided. I’d probably add confused as well, but anyway.

According to the telephone poll commissioned by Aravot newspaper and conducted by APR group during 28 November – 1 December 2007 among 663 Yerevan residents, if elections were to be conducted in “coming Sunday” (2 December), the votes may have the following distribution:

Serj Sargsyan	19.2%
Levon Ter-Petrosyan	9.2%
Vazgen Manukyan	4.4%
Artur Baghdasaryan	2.1%
Vahan Hovhannisyan	2%
Artashes Geghamyan	1.4%
Undecided	31.5%
Against everyone	18.7%

Based on my subjective understanding of the situation, these numbers (especially re Serj Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan) seem close to reality, as for today. The way ‘undecided’ will vote, would determine the outcomes of the elections. They, in turn, may be influenced by the choice of other respected politicians not participating (unfortunately!) in the election per se (Raffi Hovhannisyan), and redistribution of votes for the second round of elections, which is inevitable.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.