With Georgia’s presidential election just three days away, it’s probably worth pointing you all in the direction of EurasiaNet’s special coverage of the vote called prematurely after clashes in downtown Tbilisi two months ago. Interestingly, while the pre-election campaign by all those involved looks far slicker than what we’ve been used to in Armenia, it’s also interesting to note that Georgia appears to fall short in other areas.

For example, while USAID will be commissioning an exit poll for the 19 February presidential election in Armenia, the exit poll in Georgia will be commissioned by the broadcast media. Of course, there are concerns raised by the opposition and sympathetic media outlets here, but even so, the independence of such polls in Georgia is perhaps more understandably being called into question.

The poll, officially meant to act as a safeguard against election fraud, was commissioned by four television companies - the state-financed Georgian Public Broadcasting; and three private broadcasters, Rustavi-2, Mze and Achara TV. The opposition has routinely denounced broadcasters Rustavi-2 and Mze for a pro-government bias in their news coverage.

[…]

At a December 29 rally in Tbilisi staged by the nine-party coalition backing Levan Gachechiladze, some participants, quizzing a reporter about Washington’s view of the election, pushed for international observers to stop the polls. “The exit polls are a trick being used by the government. That’s it. Everyone here knows the danger,” argued one Gachechiladze supporter, wearing the white neck scarf associated with the campaign.

In response to such criticism, the government has claimed that opposition leaders are not willing to cooperate to hold a fair election, but instead are focusing on stirring up trouble after the election. “Rather than preparing for the election, the opposition is getting ready for January 6… this is deeply troubling,” Acting President Nino Burjandaze said on December 26 in televised remarks.

The article notes that observers are invited to monitor how exit polls are conducted, and one supposes that the same will be true for Armenia. Anyway, while we’re waiting for TOL Georgia to cover the election, EurasiaNet’s special coverage is here. Interestingly, one supposes the conduct of the vote will determine what is expected from Armenia next month so it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Burjandaze’s comments implying that the opposition in Georgia are simply waiting for the day after the election to mount street protests are particularly relevant. This was the case for the radical opposition during the May parliamentary election in Armenia. Some pro-government commentators also suggest that this is also what the radical opposition are preparing for with next month’s presidential election.

Given that the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia kicked off various attempts at colored revolutions in the post-Soviet space, what happens this time round — and specifically what the opinion of international observers will be — might have huge relevance for Armenia in February. And that’s even though, at face value at least, opinion polls here might prove more reliable than there.

Time will tell and there’s not long to go at all. It’s also probably worth pointing you all in the direction of two posts on opinion/exit polls in Georgia here and here.