With Saturday’s presidential election in the neighboring Republic of Georgia now behind us, it’s time to look at the latest news and events surrounding the next vote to elect a head of state in the region. Next month, on 19 February, Armenians go to the polls to choose a successor to the incumbent president, Robert Kocharian, who cannot seek a third consecutive term in office.

If the polarized local media is to be believed, the 2008 presidential election in Armenia will be between two candidates — prime minister Serzh Sarkisian and the first, former president, Levon Ter Petrosian. Even so, opinion polls do not yet show such a situation. Indeed, the polls, the credibility of which have been vouched for by the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan, show that while Sarkisian is leading the pack, Ter Petrosian is not even certain to make second place.

Such a situation also appears to be confirmed by random conversations with voters, especially among youth. For example, only today I witnessed one conversation between several university students on the presidential election in Georgia. The topic soon changed to the vote next month in Armenia with one 24-year old graduate who had studied abroad telling the students she would vote for Ter Petrosian. She was greeted with hostility and verbal attacks.

Of course, the incident in itself is not a scientific assessment of the whole of society, but pretty representative of many conversations I’ve had with Armenians to date. That said, the official pre-election campaign is not yet upon us, and the amount of black propaganda brought into play against Ter Petrosian is significant, to say the least.

However, if Ter Petrosian’s camp has no reason to consider him the main opposition challenger, RFE/RL reports that other candidates — namely the prime minister — are getting too far ahead of themselves as well.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian will likely win Armenia’s upcoming presidential election without having to face an opposition challenger in a run-off vote, a spokesman for his Republican Party (HHK) said on Monday.

“I strongly believe it is very likely that the government candidate, Republican Party leader Serzh Sarkisian, will win outright in the first round [of voting,]” Eduard Sharmazanov told RFE/RL. “Things will clear up after the official start of the election campaign.”

While Sarkisian is widely regarded, not least because of the HHK’s tight grip on many government bodies, as the election favorite, few observers think that he is popular enough to garner the absolute majority of votes already in the first round slated for February 19. Even government-connected pollsters have put his approval ratings at up to 35 percent.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.